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nic carter Profile picture
@nic__carter
Jul 16 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
people often ask me where to start regarding stablecoins. I have a syllabus that I send around, so I decided to open source it. if you read all of this, you will be pretty much up to speed.

niccarter.info/wp-content/upl…
individuals/firms cited:

@TheChicagoVC, @bluechip_org, @centrifuge, @SteakhouseFi, @sytaylor, @izakaminska, @antony_btc, @gordonliao, @jp_koning, @CampbellJAustin, @ccatalini, @mud2monarch, @LucaProsperi, @CaitlinLong_, @DefiLlama, @artemis__xyz, @RWA_xyz, @AlliumLabs

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More from @nic__carter

nic carter Profile picture
Jul 13
a few comments on this new genre of reporting – crypto is threatening democracy etc

first of all, it's definitely amusing that the critics have pivoted from writing crypto off to being deeply concerned about its effect on Our Republic
molly seems to have pivoted smoothly from web3isgoinggreat (a sarcastic blog dedicated to showing how broken crypto is) to being very worried about Crypto Dark Money influencing politics. maybe web3 is going a little greater than you thought? maybe take a beat to introspect?
so the core critique seems to be that crypto donations are "disproportionate" given the size of the industry. of course, this is an insane claim.

crypto is pound for pound the most politically harassed industry in the US. chokepoint 2.0 targeted crypto, no one else. the SEC has primarily been going after crypto. the FDIC, DoJ, OCC, the Fed, NYAG, CFTC – the list goes on – have all been weaponized against the crypto space. the Biden admin has even tried to quash bitcoin miners because they were using power in a way that they politically disagreed with. its not remotely arguable that crypto gets far more political attention than any industry, especially when considering its (relatively small) size.

as a crypto founder, you risk getting thrown in jail for building privacy tools, attacked by the SEC (even if they tend to slink away after a few years), you will have an extremely hard time getting banking, you are automatically banned from using a bunch of B2B tools, and so on.

crypto finally getting its act together and pulling together donations to stick up for its interests in washington is entirely reasonable given how much harassment we've faced in DC over the last few years. and as a new industry, we don't have the embedded political networks in Washington that others do, so we have to work harder to get off the blocks. our relatively higher level of output is totally fair given this.
Read 8 tweets
nic carter Profile picture
Jun 13
This Rep gets my bozo of the week award. His thread in which he claims to unpack and debunk trumps post is wildly off base in so many ways
“CBDCs are largely theoretical”

Uhh no. There are 3 fully deployed CBDCs (Jamaica, Bahamas and Nigeria), 36 countries with CBDC pilots, and 68 countries in an advanced stage of development Image
“The only distinction with a CBDC is that it is on a blockchain to record transactions and always remains a liability of the central government which makes it largely useless in a modern economy since it’s isn’t amenable to fractional banking.”

The way my jaw dropped at this. No CBDCs are not on the blockchain lol. And CBDCs being a liability of the central government mirrors how cash (and deposits at the Fed) already works, big components of the money supply. Yes CBDCs might disintermediate commercial banks but hybrid systems are possible. Just a wacky thing to say
Read 12 tweets
nic carter Profile picture
Feb 15
hey @AABerwick and @IanTalley

now that your erroneous reporting has been rebuked by the literal undersecretary of the treasury, do you recant?

hey @EmmaMoodyWSJ, how are those "standards and ethics" you adjudicate holding up?

@AABerwick @IanTalley @EmmaMoodyWSJ the people defaming us have names, faces, and emails. they think their press credentials are a shield from accountability. they have been completely brazen and unapologetic. they remain uncowed.

@AABerwick @IanTalley @EmmaMoodyWSJ their erroneous reporting kicked off off the most aggressive attacks against the crypto industry in DC we've ever seen. even today, we are facing the fallout of their actions. and if we quietly accept this provocation, it will happen again, and again, and again
Read 4 tweets
nic carter Profile picture
Jan 17
"a cold snap in texas causes bitcoin fees to rise" is such a fun relationship, the kind of thing you expect to learn about on odd lots
here's all the pieces you need to tease out the relationship:

bitcoin stuff
- bitcoin targets 144 blocks per day and these each contain up to 4mb of data
- if bitcoin mining power drops suddenly, the next adjustment to difficulty can take as long as two weeks, so a sudden drop in hashrate can cause blocks to be "slow" for a while
- slower blocks during a time of moderate or high usage cause users to compete with each other for inclusion, driving up fees

bitcoin mining/ energy stuff
- texas has a deregulated power market, and scarcity is expressed as real time price signals (to sophisticated users). when prices rise, firms that can afford to turn off
- industrial bitcoin mining lends itself to rapid curtailment; that is, miners can stop consuming power at any time, and they don't suffer a nonlinear deterioration in their economics when they curtail, aka nothing breaks when they turn power off. Bitcoin is unique relative to other forms of industrial demand, in this respect. I wrote a whole paper about this with others:
- bitcoin miners have a variety of arrangements that enable them to react to changing grid conditions (in texas): they might be enrolled in formal "demand response" or "ancillary service" programs (whereby they willingly curtail at ERCOT's request to free up power for other uses); or they might be trading power in real time, and simply curtailing when real time prices reach their economic breakeven point; or they might be hedged and long a fixed power contract, which becomes more economical to sell (rather than use) when prices are high.
- either way, as a general rule of thumb, bitcoin miners in texas are generally not operating when power prices are high
- texas is the largest hub of bitcoin mining in the US, and the US is the largest market for bitcoin mining worldwide. texas accounts for 10-15% of worldwide bitcoin mining activity in my estimate

putting the pieces together
- it's cold in texas, and that is straining the grid. that means power prices will rise in texas.
- bitcoin miners in texas will be offline for a day or two
- hashrate will probably drop temporarily, by maybe 10% or so (but this is hard to measure, because hashrate is calculated based on block arrival time, and we don't have enough datapoints per day for an accurate calculation)
- this will drive down block arrival time (because bitcoin difficulty can't react in time)
- this means that there will be a lower supply of block space available for people that want to use bitcoin
- the mempool of waiting txns is full right now, so net new transactional demand will be expressed in the form of higher fees
- fees are pretty high right now to begin with, so new transactions will have to further outbid them to get into blocks
- hence fees will probably rise on bitcoin due to the cold weather in texaspapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
once a month i tweet actually useful stuff ok back to the normal garbage now
Read 4 tweets
nic carter Profile picture
Nov 7, 2023
There still remain otherwise serious people who in 2023 earnestly believe “unbacked fake tether issuance drives up the price of bitcoin”, despite

- no actual documented evidence of this ever
- tether surviving a brutal bear market when other major stablecoins collapsed and virtually every lender and several exchanges collapsed
- tether honoring massive redemption events
- tether settling with NYAG and providing two years of attestations to them without any issue
- the “Chinese commercial paper” conspiracy being false
- the “tether will collapse when evergrande does” theory being proven false (evergrande collapsed)
- tether continuing to reduce the maturity and increase the liquidity of their assets
- multiple occasions of tether supply and bitcoin price going in totally different directions
- tether supply rallying while bitcoin sold off (impossible according to the theory)
- bitcoin enduring a brutal bear market while tether reached ATHs
- tether securing and maintaining relationships with credible US based intermediaries like cantor
- tether containing their quarterly atteststions like clockwork

It’s time to admit that the truthers are wrong. You don’t get an unlimited moral license to be intellectually short with absolutely no evidence in favor of your position. Yes - bad things could happen to tether in the future. But regardless, the truthers have been wrong from 2017-23, and everyone can agree on that.
And if they’ve been actually short USDT, I respect their conviction to losing money by confusing their normative beliefs with objective reality - at least you tried 💫
Note that as the unhinged nocoiners find this thread as they surely will (and remember that virtually none of them manage risk, so they’re mostly intellectually short with no downside for being wrong), they have no actual response or objection beyond personal attacks
Read 5 tweets
nic carter Profile picture
Oct 23, 2023
Is today the day that the @WSJ admits they overstated the bitcoin terrorist financing figures by ~200x and committed journalistic malpractice? Let’s find out
@AABerwick (angus.berwick@wsj.com) and @IanTalley (Ian.Talley@wsj.com) are the men responsible

Feel free to let them know that they are failures who can’t read a block explorer - and stubborn failures at that, because they refuse to admit their lie
Image
Image
@AABerwick @IanTalley They’ve seen the chainalysis report correcting their journalistic atrocity, but let’s put it in their inbox again so they can’t miss it this time

chainalysis.com/blog/cryptocur…
Read 8 tweets

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