Thread by @EVKontorovich

There are no surprises at the ICJ Advisory Opinion today, including its timing right before Shabbat. Holding: Israel's presence in West Bank & Jerusalem entirely illegal and ultraverybad.
Some things to keep in mind. THREAD (1/8)
Remember that the ICJ is just the judicial arm of the UN - an organization that runs several Hamas front organizations, and whose SG said of Oct 7th, that it didn't happen without a context. The ICJ's membership selected largely by the GA, who actually asked for this "opinion." Its judicial decisions simply reflect the politics of the GA.

This ICJ's opinion is not legally binding (its advisory), nor is it morally binding, coming from the U.N., which in Gaza has merged with Hamas and lost all credibility since Oct. 7th. (2/8)

The ICJ decision is also the millionth nail in coffin of two-state solution, by telling Palestinians they have all the marbles: starting position is Israel must leave all territory, evacuate all settlements, etc. This maximalist rhetoric is what has made it impossible to them to compromise for decades. 3/8

The ICJ already declared Israel's entire presence in the West Bank and Gaza to be an occupation in the 2004 Wall case. This is largely a reboot of the Wall Opinion for a new generation: same flawed assumptions, even bigger conclusions of illegality! The principle upshot is that not only is all the territory including the Jerusalem Holy Sites is not Israel's, it belongs to the Palestinian State, and Israel's presence in all these places is illegal. (4/8)

This is part of the rhetorical escalation against Israel, from occupation to illegal occupation to apartheid to genocide. What hasn't been said already? In this case the ICJ calls it "annexation." The point is to provide a basis for the Palestinians to seek sanctions at UN, and from EU. (5/8)

Whether this case becomes like the 2004 Wall opinion -after generating much hubub, becomes a footnote eclipsed by events - depends largely on whether Trump wins the presidency. A Democratic Administration much less likely to block the weaponization of the decision at the SC. (6/8)

The Palestinians' diplomatic win, even as the so-called "occupied Palestinian territories" are used to launch rockets against Israel & hold and torture hostages, further demonstrates that Oct. 7th was greatest victory ever for the Palestinian cause. (7/8)tabletmag.com/sections/news/…

For Israel, the lesson should be clear: Jerusalem must urgently quit treaties, like the Genocide Convention and a dozen others, where it agrees to give the ICJ jurisdiction. Israel cannot cary on with The Hague as if it is business as usual. To often Israel takes diplomatic blows without a meaningful response. (8/8)