Thread by @Yu_JieC

Much has been written about hardening US perceptions of China, there is limited available analysis on BJ’s own shift in strategic thinking under intensifying China–US competition. My @ChathamHouse research paper aims to fill the gap. A thread summary 🧵chathamhouse.org/2024/07/china-…

Decision-making in Beijing doesn't take place in a vacuum. This sense of China being ‘under siege’ will shape Beijing’s future policies, as it prepares for long-term enmity with 🇺🇸 1/15

China’s ultimate goal is to ensure that the further erosion of China–US relations does not hinder domestic economic growth, which is key to giving the ruling regime legitimacy 2/15

The paper focuses on four thorny issues – the struggle over the global order, economic security, regional flashpoints: Taiwan and the SCS, and the war in Ukraine – that reflect the breadth of contestation between the two countries and their increasingly fraught relationship 3/15

Xi's view on 🇨🇳🇺🇸 has shifted from a sense of triumphalism with a belief in global power shift towards China to a more sober evaluation. Despite the centralization of FP decision-making under Xi, leaders still seek a range of expertise from 🇨🇳wider strategic community 4/15

A consensus within 🇨🇳strategic community that the core drivers of 🇨🇳’s worsening ties with🇺🇸 cannot be reversed. Influential scholars and policy practitioners differ widely on whether the US is in terminal decline and whether the global order is shifting in 🇨🇳 favour 5/15

While 🇨🇳has been promoting tech self-reliance for 15yrs, BJ push to respond the expanding export restrictions implemented by 🇺🇸. 🇨🇳 experts has rallied around this push to counter what is seen as an attempt by 🇺🇸 to choke off 🇨🇳’s access to the strategically critical tech. 6/15

Speeches from leaders and political blueprints on Taiwan are consistent in advocating 🇨🇳’s position, even before Xi came to power. Key elements of Beijing’s Taiwan policy aren't shifted fundamentally under Xi’s stewardship, BUT two new aspects have emerged recently. 7/15

On SCS, fear of encirclement by 🇺🇸 has emboldened 🇨🇳 to be more assertive. China’s priorities are to articulate its position on SCS sovereignty, there is no clear timeline or favoured method for when and how Beijing will fully take over the South China Sea. 8/15

The🇨🇳 strategic community has intensely debated the three challenges related to the war in Ukraine. But opinions are widely divided on the fundamental questions of whether China should align with Russia and what the likely repercussions would be for 🇨🇳’s ties with 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺. 9/15

A 2nd Trump term would bring more unpredictability that could worsen already thorny bilateral issues between 🇨🇳and 🇺🇸 – such as trade, tech export controls and Taiwan. Yet for 🇨🇳, the political re-emergence of Trump could have a small chance to improved ties with 🇪🇺. 10/15

The party and Xi himself have had decisive roles in 🇨🇳’s policy towards 🇺🇸. President Xi’s twin policy priorities of comprehensive national security and tech self-sufficiency have not only diminished cooperation with 🇺🇸 but also accentuated competition with Washington. 11/15

As a result, Party-led institutions have become more involved in setting the tone and terms of 🇨🇳🇺🇸 relations. Watch out the emerging individuals and agencies who hold sway in Beijing. 12/15

🇨🇳’s 🇺🇸policy is a product of 🇨🇳’s own evaluations of events at home and abroad. 🇺🇸’s policy to contain 🇨🇳 is a key factor in its approach to 🇺🇸, the more critical elements of BJ's calculus are domestic politics, the country’s long-term prosperity and national survival. 13/15

The overall strategy for BJ to deal with 🇺🇸is to minimize damage from DC by maximizing 🇨🇳’s economic and political influence in the rest of the world. Such a move might well buy time for 🇨🇳 to speed up its own economic resilience and technology development. 14/15