NEW: THE STAGGERING RISE OF AMERICA'S GLOBAL ECONOMIC WARFARE
1st in a series
@federicacocco & I found:
1. ~1/3 of all nations on Earth now face some form of US sanctions. Huge increase from when mostly applied to Cuba & a handful of regimes
2. +*60%* of *all poor countries* are under US sanctions of some kind. Has become almost a reflex of US foreign policy
3. Sanctions have spawned multi-billion-dollar lobbying & influence industry, enriching former US officials who are hired by foreign countries & oligarchs
4. Sanctions have had devastating effects on innocent civilians. In Cuba, they've made critical medical supplies impossible to import. In Venezuela, they contributed to a financial collapse 3X greater than the US Great Depression. Syria faces its greatest humanitarian crisis this year after a decade civil war & sanctions.
5. Treasury staffers drafted a ~40 page plan aimed at reforming the sanctions process that was dramatically whittled down amid disagreements w/ State
6. OFAC is widely described as overwhelmed by tens of thousands of requests. WH officials have brainstormed sanctions scenarios w/ outside nonprofits
7. Biden has unleashed unprecedented volley of +6K sanctions in 2 years. Higher than even previously unprecedented rate of Trump.
“We don’t think about the collateral damage of sanctions the same way we think about the collateral damage of war ... But we should.”
@federicacocco Here's a partial list of all countries under some form of US sanctions, with an (somewhat admittedly/inherently subjective) attempt to categorize by severity:
SANCTIONS CRUSHED SYRIA’S ELITE.
SO THEY BUILT A ZOMBIE ECONOMY FUELED BY DRUGS.
Incredible reporting
Revealing in why sanctions have exploded: They are often applied in response to atrocities abroad. But what about second or third order impacts?
After the disasters in Iraq & Afghanistan, US presidents became more & more determined to minimize negativity publicity of American troops abroad
But how to still 1) look "tough" on foreign bad guys; 2) keep US troops out of harms way; 3) do something?
Big part of the answer:
We have more stories coming but just a huge huge huge thanks to the incredibly patient & talented colleagues who made this story possible @federicacocco @JobyWarrick
@dataKateR @MikeMadden @AnaCarano @bettychavarriaa @kdombsadof Haley Hamblin, Stephanie Hayes & many many more
Would you be interested in listening to this story in podcast/audio form
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Hearing A LOT of alarm today among GOP donors & Reaganite conservative types about JD Vance
On trade, taxes, unions, antitrust — he’s signaled sharp departure from traditional conservatism, despite venture capitalist roots
Now he’s heir apparent for the party, & Reaganites fear being shut out
Vance had troubled them by:
— Praising Biden FTC pick Lina Khan
— Suggesting openness to higher corporate taxes
— Backing Trump’s major tariffs & trade barriers
— Being tied to Oren Cass’s pro industrial & family policy group
— Visiting UAW picket line
OTOH plenty of reason to feel these fears are overstated
Vance has:
— Given no indication he’ll resist Trump plans on cutting corporate taxes & the rich, deregulating businesses
— Rejected PRO Act
— Signed Grover Norquist’s tax pledge
— Tied himself to billionaire Peter Thiel
Had the pleasure ysd to meet Father Gary Wegner, who runs a Detroit soup kitchen
Wegner says demand is up ~80% over last yr w/ hunger rising nationally
“Jesus said blessed are the poor,” Wegner said. “Only in America do we put the modifier, ‘Blessed are the *deserving* poor’”
Johneka Austin, 42, a banquet server with 5 sons, saw her food stamps cut from $843 to $400-$500 as covid aid expiration hit ~1M Michiganders
She’s torn bw buying good groceries & Internet for her sons
Austin laughed when I asked whether the economy is good. “Nobody says that!”
Nate Standing, 31, right, was homeless & a drug addict for about 10 years. He said an extended treatment program made possible by covid aid allowed him to get sober — and eventually a job with Capuchin Soup Kitchen
But now he’s seeing a big increase in need, esp for families
Due largely to an unexpected surge in immigration, the U.S. economy will be about $7 trillion larger - & federal revenues about $1T bigger - the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday
That impact is over 10 years, to be clear. It does not take into account any legislation that Congress may or may not approve
Newt Gingrich, former House speaker who remains Trump confidant, says Trump may propose converting tariff revenue into Alaska-dividend style payment to U.S. households.
(I find it very hard/impossible to see the GOP going along with this, which they would have to)
Summary of deal as I understand it:
— Debt ceiling raised 2 years
— Domestic programs frozen next year, up 1% ‘25. Inflation-adjusted cut
— Boosts defense, VA $
— Some tightening of work requirements on TANF, SNAP
— Energy permitting (details tbd)
— Claw back some new IRS $
Work requirement for food stamps moves from 50 to 54
Trying to get more clarity on tanf sorry I’m not sure will update when I learn more details
My understanding is the energy permitting changes are very minimal
If Biden aides can find just a few days’ worth of extra cash, it is possible they can make it to June 15
Critical here: If they make it to June 15, a whole bunch of new tax revenue comes in — & they may be able to punt the deadline to July
Obviously not the preferred outcome
Despite the attention to legally novel arguments around the coin and 14A, there’s a key separate set of options - also likely controversial - to simply delay the x date rather than simply end the standoff as those ideas do
(Don’t you love the idea of doing this for longer?)