Thread by @HAHazony

The IDF has now released photos proving the rocket was of Hezbollah origins, amounting to a clear casus belli. If Israel was looking for the reason to invade Lebanon, they just got it.

Who are the Druze? Why did Nasrallah target them? Why now?
And how will Israel respond?

https://twitter.com/HAHazony/status/1817568468108997057

The Druze are a small ethno-religion of some 1-2 million living mostly in the Levant.

The faith dates back to ~1000 A.D., emerging from Shi'a Islam under the influence of various philosophies.

Their beliefs are esoteric, & knowledge about their faith is hard to verify.

What is commonly agreed is that Druze are monotheists, referring to themselves by that term in Arabic (al-Muwaḥḥidūn), which is their native tongue.

They emerged out of Arab and Muslim peoples, and see themselves as followers of Moses' father-in-law Jethro the prophet.

Historically, Druze have had peaceful relations with Jews and Christians, while at times they were persecuted by the Muslim majorities in the countries in which they resided.

Nevertheless, Druze have almost always been loyal to the political systems they found themselves in.

Thus, the Druze in the Israeli Galilee have been loyal to Israel since the '50s, boasting the highest rates of military service in the country.

Meanwhile, the Druze of the Golan, incorporated into Israel only after the '67 war, have colder ties with the state.

These communities still have strong familial ties to Syrian Druze, and must must walk a tight rope between the Israelis which govern them, and the Assad regime which rules across the boarder.

Nevertheless, relations between Drews and Jews in the Golan remain peaceful.

The largest Druze settlement in the Golan is Majdal Shams, a town of tightly packed apartment buildings.

There's no doubt that firing a rocket a into this town would kill a large number of people. And those people were all intended to be Druze.

This was no accident.

The purpose of such an attack is to destabilize Druze-Jewish relations in Israel and sow discord in the Golan.

The Druze are very tribal, if they feel that their people are being killed and the Jews aren't doing anything about it, they will most certainly bear a grudge.

Furthermore, such a strike is profoundly humiliating to the State of Israel whose legitimacy to ruling the Druze population rests largely on the claim that life under Israeli sovereignty is safer, more peaceful, and more prosperous than under Muslim regimes.

If Israel fails to retaliate, the Druze will feel betrayed and the Jews will look weak.

The tight-nit nature of the Druze communities make them important players in the politics of Syria & Lebanon.

Driving a wedge between Druze and Jews is the Hezbollah play.

Nasrallah chose to deliberately massacre children NOW because he knows that the Biden administration is hounding Netanyahu to sign a ceasefire in Gaza in the coming days.

Hezbollah hopes to score a major military "success" (sickening!) but avoid retaliation from Jerusalem.

I have written about Biden & Netanyahu's diverging interests when it comes to hostilities on the Israel-Lebanon border bellow.

Suffice to say here, the US admin sees no interest in escalation at this time, whereas the Israelis feel the opposite.

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https://x.com/HAHazony/status/1772347038505599007

Under American pressure, talks in Rome have moved forward.

Whether there will or won't be a deal is anyone's guess. Yet with the successful assassination of arch-terrorist Def, it seems the two sides are moving towards some kind of agreement:

timesofisrael.com/mossad-chief-m…

If fighting ceases in Gaza, Hezbollah will unilaterally ceasefire in Lebanon, depending on the US to restrain Israeli military action.

Thus, Nasrallah attempted to squeeze in the murder of a couple dozen children just before the clock ran out.

Yet it seems to me that Nasrallah misjudged, just as Sinwar misjudged when he ordered the 10/7 attacks.

First, Israelis are very loyal to the Druze, sometimes calling them "blood brothers."

In a sense, killing Druze is received with more anger in Israel than attacks on Jews.

Second, Israeli citizens won't let Netanyahu avoid a war in Southern Lebanon. They demand the IDF push Hezbollah troops north, beyond the Litani river.

There are still more than 80,000 Israeli refugees who won't go home because their houses are in the direct line of fire.

More than 60% of Israelis supported some kind of action in Lebanon BEFORE the massacre of the children in Majdal Shams.

Israeli politicians simply do not have the electoral legitimacy to avoid conflict in Lebanon, even if that is in the interest of American politicians.

Thus, there will certainly be a ground invasion of IDF forces into southern Lebanon.

However, that may not happen in the coming weeks. The US admin has considerable power to strong-arm the Israelis through diplomatic penalties and withholding munition supplies.

As election season enters full swing across the Atlantic, the last thing Harris needs right now is Israeli soldiers moving into Lebanon and mass protests on college campuses.

The Biden administration certainly can buy time, it has has been doing so for eight months.

There will be a major retaliation on Israel's part in the coming days, up to and possibly including a bombing of Beirut.

The ground invasion may start tonight or may be postponed a couple of months.

But there is no doubt that it is coming.

Israeli opposition declares support for retaliation against Lebanon.

https://x.com/Now14Israel/status/1817952191920939215?t=EmX6rAuZcrvnaGW1r3Mgfw&s=19