🧵/ African trap for Wagner PMC in Mali. Wh @pustota and @kromark we gathered all the available information, talked to ex-Wagner PMC fighter. Now I will explain how the battle near Tinzaouaten became the largest defeat of Russian mercenaries in Africa.
1/ I won't go deeply into the details of Mali's territorial delineations —you can read more about that in our article. Briefly: government forces control only the south and part of the center of the country, while the rest is predominantly controlled by Azawad, JNIM and ISSP.
2/ Periodically, groups temporarily unite: the last town controlled by Azawad separatists, Tinzaouaten, in the far north of Mali near the Algerian border, has been used as a logistics hub by JNIM fighters. JNIM also has several camps in the border areas with Algeria.
3/ Fights in northern Mali intensified on July 20. At that time, FAM with PMC Wagner conducted a raid on the village of In-Afarak, prematurely announcing the capture of the settlement. Simultaneously, a convoy of 12 vehicles moved towards Tinzaouaten. (Photo: Azawad rebels/AFP)
4/ On July 23, the convoy reached Boughessa without resistance from the separatists. There, the PMC Wagner requested reinforcements as the Azawad began mobilizing and mined the area near Tinsaouaten.
5/ The forces of the FAM and PMC “Wagner” at that time were about 70 people. On the road to Tinzaouaten, FAM'svehicle detonated on an improvised explosive device. One Malian soldier was injured.
6/ Fighting for the village itself began in the afternoon of July 25 - a Malian army column supported by Russian mercenaries found itself 20 kilometers from Tinsaouaten. The separatists put up fierce resistance, while the FAM and Wagner were unable to use drones and aircraft☁️.
7/ The Tuareg commanders and members of jihadist groups who had joined them tried to trap the FAM in a narrow trap, but FAM and Wagner bypassed it. Some time later, inaccurate information emerged about the siege of a separatist camp just two kilometers from the Algerian border.
8/ By evening, the fighting had stopped due to a sandstorm and the Azawad fighters had entrenched seven kilometers from Tinsaouaten. Fighting resumed the following morning. FAM and Wagner used aircraft and FPV drones. On the same day, the separatists damaged an Mi-24 helicopter.
9/ FAM and PMC decided to retreat from Tinsaouatento Abeibara and from there to Kidal due to heavy losses, but on the way they ran into traps of JDIMfighters and were ambushed. They were attacked by two groups at once, both Al-Qaida jihadists and Azawad separatists.
10/ According to another version, a group of scouts, consisting of government forces and fighters of the PMC “Wagner”, went to intercept one of the groups of separatists numbering “several hundred people”.
11/ According to the Departamente tg channel, the JNIM fighters planted the explosives in the Tin Gamir area. The channel refers to separatist bloggers and official statements of the two organizations; but neither Azawad nor JNIM mention the specific area of the ambush.
12/ JNIM was the first to enter the fray with FAM and the Wagner Group. The latter were forced to withdraw and take cover. The JNIM fighters themselves retreated at this point. The Azawad separatists then arrived and finished off the remaining forces.
13/ Orange indicates the area where the explosives were detonated, according to the Telegram channel. Gray is the location of Azawad rebels, blue is JNIM.
14/ An ex-fighter of the PMC “Wagner” talking to us noted that after the first armored vehicle of the forward patrol was hit by a mine, his fighters, instead of moving away, requested help.
15/ The main force convoy that moved out to them came under surprise attack, apparently from two sectors at once. “Many more losses were suffered by the main column that came to the aid of the forward patrol,” he says.
16/ He estimates the composition of the detachment sent to assist the ambushed forward patrol to be about a company (up to 100 men). The remnants of the convoy attempted to withdraw but were attacked by the JNIM.
17/ “After that, the remnants of the column were finished. Those who could, came out singly or in pairs. The cumulative losses are very high, the minimum estimate is about 50 dead, but probably much more, - suggests an ex-fighter of the PMC “Wagner”.
18/ “The operation carried out on the part of the enemy is beautiful, straightforwardly elegant. And, unfortunately, very bloody for us,” he says.
19/ According to the Departamente Telegram channel, six to seven vehicles in the convoy of government forces and mercenaries were destroyed or captured. In one of the published videos, five to six destroyed vehicles can be counted.
20/ According to the official statement of PMC “Wagner”, from July 22 to July 27, the 13th Assault Mercenary Unit under the command of Sergei Shevchenko with the call sign “Prud” took part in the battles for Tinsaouaten. His detachment and FAM suffered heavy losses, report said.
21/ The last radiogram from the “Prud” detachment, according to the official report, was received on July 27 at 17:10. “Three of us are left, we continue to fight,” it said. Shevchenko was also killed.
22/ The number of dead wagner'svaries, according to various sources, from several dozen to 80 people - this figure is given by the ex-commander of the 13th assault squad with the call sign “Rusich”. It is not known whether he meant only the fighters of the PMC or including FAM.
23/ In the battle near Tinzaouaten, a well-known blogger, administrator of a large (more than half a million subscribers) telegram channel Grey Zone with the call signs “White” and “Five Hundredth” was also killed.
24/ According to unconfirmed reports, one of the commanders of the Wagner PMC, Anton Elizarov with the call sign “Lotus”, was also killed. He was allegedly executed by the separatists.
25/ A number of channels refute this information and say that he was captured butexchanged at once. Some claim that he was not in the battle at all. There is no official information on this.
26/ All the captured Russian mercenaries have already been exchanged, judging by the statements of Telegram channels.
📊85 people per sq. km. We tried to calculate the price paid by 🇷🇺 for advance in 🇺🇦 and how these figures differ from last year's. Spoiler: the correlation between 🇷🇺's growth in advance and its losses has become less noticeable, but the scale of the losses remains the same.
2/ Thank @RALee85 for the conversation, as well as @Black_BirdGroup and @J_JHelin for their help in assessing Russian advances. Please read our recent conversation with John and @CITeam_en about the results of 2025 for the Ukrainian and Russian armies.
3/ Although we understand the shortcomings of the statistics kept by AFU's General Staff, we have decided, as we did last year, to use them to assess RU losses. It should be borne in mind that these figures are clearly overstated and include all losses: KIA/WIA/MIA etc.
🪖Big article on Russia's potential invasion of Europe. I attempted to answer two key questions: How likely is a full-scale war between 🇷🇺 and 🇪🇺 in the near future, and is 🇷🇺's sabotage potential big enough to force 🇪🇺 to accept Moscow's terms without a ‘hot’ phase of war?
1/ I would like to thank @Tatarigami_UA and @KofmanMichael, Deputy Head of the Military Office of the President of the Czech Republic @FoltynOtakar, as well as Resident Fellow at the AEI Elisabeth Braw and Senior Research Fellow Teemu Tammikko from FIIA for their participation.
2/ I usually write huge threads for each article, but now, it seems to me, this may not provide a complete picture of the experts' assessments. Therefore, I highly recommend following the link and reading the article in its entirety.
🇺🇦🇷🇺Talked to @Jonpy99 @Rebel44CZ @CITeam_en and tried to figure out why Ukraine is losing more military equipment than Russia this year. Thread
1/ Complete data for November is not yet available, but preliminary estimates (thanks to @Rebel44CZ and @WarSpotting) suggest that the trend will continue this month: Russia lost 164 pieces of equipment in November, while Ukraine lost 325.
2/ However, although Ukrainian losses exceeded Russian losses, they remained at roughly the same level month after month in various categories, without any noticeable spikes.
🚾🚽How @kromark , @pustota and I found the commander of Russia's secret UAV Rubicon unit and geolocated their base, and how Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov helped us to do it (thanks to poor-quality blurring and WC sign). Thread
1/ A little further down, I will tell about the structure of the Rubicon and why it is so effective. Many thanks to @RALee85 for the conversation and for providing useful info on this topic. But first, let's get back to Solovyov and the WC sign.
2/ A total of three videos showing the ‘secret base’ of the Rubicon centre were published on the internet: one was published by the Ministry of Defence, the second by propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, and the third by Rubicon itself.
1/ What is known about the new Russian jet drone ‘Geran-3’? Spoiler: its actual characteristics may be lower than stated.
2/ This is an analogue of the Iranian Shahed-238 (on photo) drone, the production of which in Russia is not currently at the mass production stage and is not fully localised.
3/ According to documents published by hackers, the new jet drone reached a speed of 600 kilometres per hour during a demonstration test, which is more than three times faster than the widely used Geran-2 drones.
🇺🇦⚔️To what extent can the goals of the Kursk operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine be considered accomplished, and the operation itself - successful? On the anniversary of its beginning, we discuss these questions with @KofmanMichael, @J_JHelin and Viktor Kevlyuk.
1/ To save your time, I will not retell the chronology of the operation itself; you can read about it in my article. smarturl.click/oVwgD
2/ In September 2024, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky presented his vision of the operation's goals. We will primarily analyze these tasks: