The West remains split on what it wants Kyiv to achieve in this war.
Consequently, we give Ukraine enough to survive, but not to win.
In this episode of @Telegraph's 'Defence in Depth', I offer 5 things Ukraine needs for *victory*:
A 🧵summary below.
Consequently, we give Ukraine enough to survive, but not to win.
In this episode of @Telegraph's 'Defence in Depth', I offer 5 things Ukraine needs for *victory*:
A 🧵summary below.
🧵 [2/15]
1. **Munitions**: Early uncertainty and fear of nuclear escalation led to a drip-feed of resources to Ukraine. Germany offered only 5000 helmets initially; tanks were held back. Now, we see advanced missiles and tanks donated to Ukraine.
1. **Munitions**: Early uncertainty and fear of nuclear escalation led to a drip-feed of resources to Ukraine. Germany offered only 5000 helmets initially; tanks were held back. Now, we see advanced missiles and tanks donated to Ukraine.
🧵 [3/15]
To win, Kyiv needs proactive support with long-range air defenses to shoot down missiles targeting infrastructure; plus HIMARs, ATACMs, and tactical Kamikaze drones. F-16 fighter jets are also a common request, though they have come too late to be decisive.
To win, Kyiv needs proactive support with long-range air defenses to shoot down missiles targeting infrastructure; plus HIMARs, ATACMs, and tactical Kamikaze drones. F-16 fighter jets are also a common request, though they have come too late to be decisive.
🧵 [4/15]
More important than specifics is the ability to procure and replenish weapons quickly. Current Western production is insufficient. New factories are needed to rapidly increase production.
More important than specifics is the ability to procure and replenish weapons quickly. Current Western production is insufficient. New factories are needed to rapidly increase production.
🧵 [5/15]
Western strategies wrongly focus on maximising existing capacity: US PATRIOT missiles, GMLRs, and ATACMs compete for resources in *the same factory*. Europe must be prepared to shoulder more of the burden, especially if US support wanes.
Western strategies wrongly focus on maximising existing capacity: US PATRIOT missiles, GMLRs, and ATACMs compete for resources in *the same factory*. Europe must be prepared to shoulder more of the burden, especially if US support wanes.
🧵 [6/15]
2. **Mandate**: Kyiv needs permission to use weapons effectively. Putin’s forces can strike Ukraine from anywhere, but Kyiv is still restricted from striking targets in Russia.
2. **Mandate**: Kyiv needs permission to use weapons effectively. Putin’s forces can strike Ukraine from anywhere, but Kyiv is still restricted from striking targets in Russia.
🧵 [7/15]
For example, Russia’s Kharkiv offensive benefited from launching attacks from across the border, largely unmolested by Ukrainian strikes. The West eventually allowed Ukraine to strike across the border, but permissions should go further.
For example, Russia’s Kharkiv offensive benefited from launching attacks from across the border, largely unmolested by Ukrainian strikes. The West eventually allowed Ukraine to strike across the border, but permissions should go further.
🧵 [8/15]
Kyiv needs to hit oil depots, airfields, and other military sites in Russia. Fear of escalation has paralysed Western policy. Yet many nuclear powers have lost wars without using nuclear weapons. This fear benefits Moscow.
Kyiv needs to hit oil depots, airfields, and other military sites in Russia. Fear of escalation has paralysed Western policy. Yet many nuclear powers have lost wars without using nuclear weapons. This fear benefits Moscow.
🧵 [9/15]
3. **Men**: Would a few thousand Western troops in Kyiv have deterred the invasion? Perhaps. Now some leaders suggest defining territorial red lines to prevent and deter further Russian advances.
3. **Men**: Would a few thousand Western troops in Kyiv have deterred the invasion? Perhaps. Now some leaders suggest defining territorial red lines to prevent and deter further Russian advances.
🧵 [10/15]
Deploying Western forces in non-combat roles to free up Ukrainian soldiers for the front is another option. Regardless, improved training from Western allies is *crucial* for major progress in 2025.
Deploying Western forces in non-combat roles to free up Ukrainian soldiers for the front is another option. Regardless, improved training from Western allies is *crucial* for major progress in 2025.
🧵 [11/15]
4. **Morale**: Military successes assisted by the above and clearer support from the West would boost Ukrainian morale. A clear path to NATO membership or, more likely, security guarantees is crucial.
4. **Morale**: Military successes assisted by the above and clearer support from the West would boost Ukrainian morale. A clear path to NATO membership or, more likely, security guarantees is crucial.
🧵 [12/15]
The fundamental catch-22: Ukraine can’t join NATO without ending the war, but the war can’t end without joining NATO (or getting major security guarantees). Solving this would give Ukrainians a *huge* morale boost. This is not discussed anywhere near enough.
The fundamental catch-22: Ukraine can’t join NATO without ending the war, but the war can’t end without joining NATO (or getting major security guarantees). Solving this would give Ukrainians a *huge* morale boost. This is not discussed anywhere near enough.
🧵 [13/15]
5. **Money**: War requires money, and lots of it. Ukraine needs a long-term, *locked-in* financial commitment of $40 billion a year to sustain the fight. Infrastructure support is also crucial. And ensuring funds reach the most needed areas is vital.
5. **Money**: War requires money, and lots of it. Ukraine needs a long-term, *locked-in* financial commitment of $40 billion a year to sustain the fight. Infrastructure support is also crucial. And ensuring funds reach the most needed areas is vital.
🧵 [14/15]
A stronger sanctions regime on Russia should be a priority. Closing loopholes that allow Russia to acquire Western drone components would be a huge step forward, and purchasing billions of dollars worth of Russian oil and gas.
A stronger sanctions regime on Russia should be a priority. Closing loopholes that allow Russia to acquire Western drone components would be a huge step forward, and purchasing billions of dollars worth of Russian oil and gas.
🧵 [15/15]
So there you go: 5 things - Munitions, Mandate, Men, Morale, and Money - that could change the war's trajectory. Not all are prerequisites for victory, but some could tip the scales in Kyiv's favor.
Not comprehensive, but have I missed something major? Let me know.
So there you go: 5 things - Munitions, Mandate, Men, Morale, and Money - that could change the war's trajectory. Not all are prerequisites for victory, but some could tip the scales in Kyiv's favor.
Not comprehensive, but have I missed something major? Let me know.
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