Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸 Profile picture
Aug 1 15 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/ The reason the election of Kamala Harris would legitimately be the end of the country has nothing to do with her as a person. (If I'm being honest, I would definitely have seven IPAs to her seven glasses of wine, and we'd probably hit it off.)

It's much darker than that.
2/ You have to look at the coordinated information war that has taken place in the past six weeks: the players, the sequence of events, and the outcomes.

If I were part of the "Deep State" or whoever the hell is running the country right now, I would be flexing my muscles...
3/ First, you had a sustained campaign of lawfare against Trump, which culminated in two massive civil suit losses (in Deep Blue NYC), and a sham felony conviction for fraud.

At the same time, the White House, Congress, Media, and others were covering up Biden's dementia.
4/ Then, you had the unprecedented early debate, which Democrats hoodwinked the Trump campaign into. They knew it was time to jettison their candidate and replace him with a younger candidate with better electoral upside.

It was a disaster, and Biden was done in five minutes.
5/ For the next couple of weeks, all you heard about was Biden's senility, his team's tight management of his schedule, his "Big Boy" press conference, the pressure from Congressional colleagues and Barry O to step aside. And anti-Kamala messaging was nonstop.
6/ Then there was a coordinated assassination attempt on President Trump. Uncharacteristically, lots of media were there and livestreamed.

The concurrent security failures were innumerable, and the gaslighting and coverup that followed made it obvious this was an inside job.
7/ If you were guilty of coordinating an assassination attempt on the sitting President - and you missed - the next thing you would do in an information war is hide, distract, and destroy evidence / sow confusion.

That's when Biden went into a bunker for six days.
8/ No one saw or heard from the sitting President for almost a week, while his party's leaders conspired to either remove him from office under the 25th Amendment (the hard way) or force his hand to resign from the 2024 race (the easy way).
9/ The result was a week when both major party candidates were to have been removed from their seats as party nominees. The RNC likely would have pushed Haley, and the DNC was looking like a brokered convention was in the works.

But the plans were botched.
10/ They missed Trump through luck / glitch in the simulation / divine providence.

And "Biden" gave one last old man middle finger to Obama and his colleagues, and installed his VP as nominee, who quickly scrambled to lock in delegates.
11/ The media, Congress, White House, hollywood, etc. all did an immediate 180 on a historically unpopular VP and woeful politician.

The message was sent: this is the regime's preferred candidate, and she will be installed in 2024. Fall in line.
12/ So now 50% of the country believes:

a) The media has lost 100% of its credibility
b) The President is dead / senile / not at the controls
c) The Deep State tried to kill Trump
d) There was a stolen DNC nomination
e) The *other* 50% of the country is ok with a-d

Can't lose.
13/ There is no going back on the America of old after the past six weeks. No one on the right will believe or accept the election results if Trump loses based on how rigged the game has been this year.

The only unifying move would be a Trump landslide and gradual deescalation.
14/ If Kamala wins, I think our best case scenario will look more like a national divorce than a Civil War.

But we have 35 trillion in debt, multiple active hot wars with nuclear armed adversaries, a complete collapse in institutional trust, and a deeply divided culture.

Bad.
15/ Buy bitcoin. Buy land in red states. Buy ammo for self-defense as is your second amendment right.

And vote Trump, so the bad shit doesn't come to pass.

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More from @twobitidiot

May 20
1/ The FIT21 vote this week will be a big one in DC:

+ We'll see if crypto remains a partisan football
+ It's a legacy defining moment for @RepMaxineWaters
+ Waters vote will likely make or break @hakeemjeffries chance at Speaker of the House for the next Congress.

Why?

🧵
2/ There's three things you should know about the political dynamics of this vote. I'll unpack them all.

1. SBF embarrassed the Democrats and Waters
2. As Waters goes, so goes the Dem conference
3. Liz Warren's SAB 121 rebuke opens the door for a potential landslide FIT21 win.
3/ First, the SBF picture.

Yes, THAT one.

The truth is that Waters and McHenry have had a cordial relationship, and worked productively together for many years. Their approach to crypto has legitimately been a good faith, bipartisan effort.

Sam screwed it up. Image
Read 12 tweets
May 7
1/ The philosophical intersection of crypto and American politics.

🧵
2/ My view of crypto, and my advocacy and decade-long building in the space, has always been political.

I think some people forget our political roots simply because Libertarians have declined to a minority of industry participants.

But those roots are deep.
3/ They go beyond "sound money" ethos.

Whether you're talking about BTC, smart contracts, DAOs, or even USD stablecoins / RWAs, crypto enshrines Constitutional values into financial code.

Crypto is the greatest tech for individual rights since the original crypto (encryption).
Read 16 tweets
Mar 3
1/ There have really only been two things that have ever pulled crypto into new bull markets: ETF hype, and new pockets of speculative bubbles.

The reason things are moving faster this year, is that we have both at our backs.

🧵
2/ Aside from its impact as a meme, the 21 million bitcoin hard cap has been irrelevant since the first or second halving.

The real driver of the 2013 bubble was the intro of Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust.

It launched in Sept, and for the next 60 days bitcoin went vertical.
3/ The 2014-2016 bear market was brutal. Many companies almost died. Bitcoin's future was uncertain. The ascent back was torturous.

Then in early 2017, ICOs were born.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 15
1/ When Gary Gensler says crypto “is just an accounting ledger” he tells on himself as being oblivious to history.

Here's a story that combines why Gensler is an idiot, how crypto is transformative, and the history of Messari all in one.

My three favorite things!

👇
2/ The history of accounting is arguably the history of human civilization. It's fascinating to read even the bare bones Wikipedia on the subject.

In short, no accounting, no civilization beyond tribes.

And no double entry accounting, no capitalism.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o…
3/ For the sake of brevity, I'll skip what you may already know about the origins of money thanks to crypto ("there's this island called Yap"), and anything that you could read about early accounting in that wiki.

I'll skip to the "merchants of Venice" who birthed capitalism.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 20
A close friend of mine (who is liberal) asked me today: “I understand the support for Vivek, but how can you swing over to Trump overnight?”

I compared Trump to an entrepreneur and comedian, but not in the way that you are thinking.

👇🏼
For starters, Trump was right about a LOT of issues. Immigration, NATO, tax reform, China. Just ask…Jamie Dimon:

But the big issue that always comes up is “but Trump is a jerk / dictator / insurrectionist. Democracy is at stake.”

If you think J6 was a literal insurrection, the conversation usually stops there. The guy with the horn helmet and face paint did not almost halt democracy.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 2
1/ HAPPY NEW YEAR

The Messari Theses for 2024 are now available for free.

Here's 105 thoughts for the new year. 👇 Image
(You can read the full 190+ page report here, by signing up for a free Messari account.)

Otherwise, some highlights...

messari.io/crypto-theses-…
2/ 24 top thoughts for 2024:

#1 When in doubt, zoom out.

Crypto is inevitable, and when you question the long-term trajectory, it's helpful to zoom out and appreciate how far we've come.

Here's crypto's 5 year performance scorecard: Image
Read 27 tweets

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