@Osint613 Iran put itself in that box, by launching the Oct 7th attacks via its proxy Hxmxs & then opening a second front w/its other proxy Hezb. - Israel always had the advantage & iran thought the US could protect it from Israel b/c of how infiltrated the USG is w/ Iranian Assets.
@Osint613 The three problems with that strategy are:
1. Biden/Harris regime incompetence from top to bottom
2. Regime has to walk both sides & try to appear good to Israel b/c of Jewish D voters.
3. Its an election year & Biden/Harris likely to lose.
1. Biden/Harris regime incompetence from top to bottom
2. Regime has to walk both sides & try to appear good to Israel b/c of Jewish D voters.
3. Its an election year & Biden/Harris likely to lose.
@Osint613 Iran miscalculated badly; they expected the Oct 7th attack to be much more successful & they did NOT expect the IDF to steamroll over gaza. They are over extended & vulnerable.
@Osint613 Attacking Israel *last* time demonstrated Iran’s limited ability to project power; the Israeli measured, calculated response proved Iran’s best defenses cant even detect, let alone repel, Israeli attack.
@Osint613 The Israelis also demonstrated they can attack Iran’s most sensitive targets, & Iran cannot repel or defend those attacks.
The killing of Haniyeh, in Tehran, under IRGC guard, much like assassination of nuclear scientists in years prior..
The killing of Haniyeh, in Tehran, under IRGC guard, much like assassination of nuclear scientists in years prior..
@Osint613 ..proves Israel has completely penetrated the Security Apparatus of Iranian Regime. That has to scare & worry Khameini, his heir apparent son, & IRGC leadership. Israel can unalive any of them at any time anywhere. Powerful leverage.
@Osint613 If Iranian regime launches strong attack (regardless of success or failure) it automatically triggers Israeli escalation. It wont be just an S-300 site next time. It invites Iranian leadership targeting.
@Osint613 This also holds true if Iranian Regime leadership chooses to strike by proxy using Terror groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq & Yemen, b/c orders come from same source & Israel will deal w/ the source.
@Osint613 I agree: Iran feels compelled to save face, & doing so in any meaningful way could possibly, likely even, trigger are terrible price for Iran. Is Iran willing to sacrifice all its MiG-29s & F-14s? All its S-300 sites? Isfahan & natanz? IRGC leadership? There’s lots of…
@Osint613 (Continued) targets in Iran the regime cannot replace; all are vulnerable to an Israeli strike.
Its about to get interesting.
Its about to get interesting.
@Osint613 @threadreaderapp unroll please
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