I’ve no idea if this is the best possible permitting reform deal (& respect efforts & views of many), but at minimum you might hope to see some journalism on how we landed a bill that doesn’t address the biggest obstacles for vast majority of new generators. Crickets though. 1/6
As one example, Heatmap’s latest coverage doesn’t give any mention of this dynamic and states that energy wonks love the deal. (Not trying to pick on Heatmap alone.) 2/6 heatmap.news/politics/permi…
In reading coverage, I’m not sure most journalists have been informed that the vast majority of new proposed renewable generators are not hamstrung by NEPA - hence why so few identify enviro restrictions as a leading cause of project cancellation. 3/6
The big upside for new generation in the bill is greenfield transmission permitting. This is important, esp. for interregional lines. It also doesn’t implicate transmission upgrades triggered by most generators, which use existing rights of way & don’t involve fed agencies. 4/6
On addressing local zoning obstacles, it’s of course true that this isn’t fed jurisdiction, but you could easily imagine a bill that incentivizes states to streamline local permitting (e.g. “Race to the Top”). Why doesn’t the bill do anything here? 5/6
Again, I’ve no idea if this is the best achievable bill and not taking a position on the full package, and this thread will likely get me in trouble, but it would seem valuable for all of us to better understand how we landed here. /end
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EPA's new power plant rules should send utilities with gas-heavy resource plans back to drawing board, but at least one major utility has suggested it may propose even more gas in response. You read that right.🧵(1/7)
Context: Duke Energy is currently proposing more large new "baseload" gas plants than any known US utility, at nearly 7 gigawatts, which they're hoping to run far above 40% capacity factor threshold for such plants in EPA's new rule, at least into late 2030s. (2/7)
Duke didn’t account for EPA's then-draft rule in 2023 IRP base case, but it included sensitivity analysis deep in appendix. Result: Duke claims least-cost solution is to add *another* 1.4GW CC gas plant (alongside 1.6GW offshore wind). (3/7) See pg100: duke-energy.com/-/media/pdfs/o…
Excellent new investigation on proposed gas power expansion by US utilities to support mega-customers, by @jeffsaintjohn @CanaryMediaInc. It covers a lot of ground. Here are a few highlights. (🧵1/8) canarymedia.com/articles/utili…
The proposed gas is not primarily "peaker" plants (CTs), as some have claimed. It's primarily combined cycle plants, designed to run much more often - most clearly illustrated by Duke, but also Dominion/Santee, which are pushing to fast-track a 2GW combined cycle plant. (2/8)
This is especially surprising given the nature of the peaking events these utilities claim necessitate large volumes of new gas, which are primarily short-duration winter morning "needle" peaks. (3/8)
Is there a US "grid crisis" at hand due to data center & factory expansion? No. But doomsday thinking appears to be spreading and increasing the risk of poor decision-making.🧵(1/8)
There's ample existing generation capacity to meet energy demand from new C&I load over medium-term. Why? As @JigarShahDC noted, "we have low asset utilization of assets we already paid for... Because entire system is built for peak demand." (2/8)
Yet a crisis mentality appears to be taking hold. Exhibit A: South Carolina legislators racing to override the state utility commission to fast-track a major new gas plant, as @postandcourier has documented in a new special report. (3/8) postandcourier.com/news/special_r…
I can’t recall the last time I was so concerned about the US energy trajectory, as major utilities maneuver for mass gas capacity expansion in the face of load growth. Unless course is changed, US 2030/2035 GHG goals are effectively dead. (1/10)
In SC, state legislators are declaring a “crisis point” for the grid, and Dominion & Santee are maneuvering to pass legislation to override the PSC and fast-track a 2,000 MW gas plant. (2/10) postandcourier.com/opinion/commen…
TVA recently announced plans to build another gas plant in central Mississippi – “the eighth proposed fossil fuel plant in just three years,” totaling 6.6GW. (3/10) wpln.org/post/tva-new-g…
An early consensus appears to be emerging on next steps for US interconnection reform. The central dilemma is that existing US processes tilt heavily toward "deliverability," which results in inefficient use of grid. @UtilityDive explores today (🧵1/9): utilitydive.com/news/connect-a…
The basic realization is that grids with high renewable penetration will curtail and/or store significant portion of RE, and insisting most RE be 100% "deliverable" is expensive & inefficient - as USDOE suggests in new interconnection roadmap (2/9): energy.gov/sites/default/…
The UK experience w/ connect & manage has reportedly been quite positive. A webinar hosted by @EnergySystemsIG last week reviewed early results: 5yr faster interconnection, 255 generators added, lower energy prices. (3/9) esig.energy/event/g-pst-es…
On IRA anniversary, one of top 3 US utilities just released new resource plan recommending 5yr delay of interim decarb mandate (from 2030 to '35, P1 v P3 below), noting higher load & claiming it's cheaper & less risky to wait for SMRs than interconnect more PV. (1/4)
NC established 2030 decarb mandate <2yrs ago. Duke now states it “requires unattainable level of resource additions & associated transmission,” whereas P3 (w/ 600MW SMRs by 2035) carries “lower execution risks & lower costs” (p16 of exec summary: ). (2/4)duke-energy.com/our-company/ab…
Unfortunately, this is almost exactly what I warned would happen in testimony to the NC Utilities Commission last year (pgs 41-42: ). (3/4) https://t.co/QBrwwN9xexstarw1.ncuc.gov/NCUC/ViewFile.…