Throughout the still-developing Imane Khelif story there's been a significant focus on their boxing record and, specifically, the nine defeats on their record, all to women about whom there are no doubts as to their biological sex.
This echoes a very common argument in... /1
...debates around the inclusion of transwomen in women's sports, which is that it's not really a problem just so long as the advantage from male puberty isn't so glaringly obvious that the transwoman wins all the time.
This is nonsense and, of course, we are not dealing... /2
...here with a transgender athlete but with a suspected male DSD athlete, but the argument remains much the same - Khelif has lost nine of their fifty fights to female boxers, so that shows that they don't have an unfair advantage, even if they do have a male DSD -
- except.. /3
It's just not that simple.
I took a look at Khelif's full record as an amateur and the first thing to leap out was that five of their nine defeats occurred in their first six fights as a 19/20 year old novice.
This is by no means unusual in women's amateur boxing... /4
...because the current lack of depth in the sport, compared to the men's game, means there are limited opportunities for young women to gain experience without competing in international event against boxers some of whom have considerably greater experience, leaving young... /5
...boxers overmatched in the early part of their career,
In fact, Khelif lost 6 of their first 9 fights, all of which were in either elite level international tournamants or the preliminary rounds of the world championships and in most cases these were narrow defeats by... /6
...split decision. Khelif lost only one fight during this period on a unanimous decision and that was to a Swedish/Australian boxer, Anja Stridsman, who was 12 years older and had, at the time, a 29-9-0 record compared to Khelif's record of 1-2-0.
Since that early run... /7
...Khelif has lost just 3 out of 41 fights, all to much older and more experienced opponents.
Defeat no. 7 came in Khelif's 16th fight with Mira Potkonen, who was 18 years older and fighting in the 263rd match of her career.
The next loss was to Ireland's Kellie... /8
...Harrington in the quarter finals of the Olympic boxing tournament in Tokyo. This was Khelif's 22nd fight against an opponent 9 years their senior with a 77-16-1 record.
And Khelif's most recent defeat, in the 2022 women's world championship final was to England's... /9
...Amy Broadhurst, who is only a couple of years older but was still considerably more experienced, having had 89 fights compared to Khelif's 35.
So, yes, Khelif has lost nine fights over their career, but six of those were as a novice fighting well above their level of... /10
...experience at that point in their career, and their three defeats since have come against significantly more experienced opponents.
Most of Khelif's defeats were early in their career and at an age (19/20) where - if they are female - then their natural physiological.. /11
...development through puberty will be complete. Women, generally speaking, stop growing taller at around 15-16 years of age but don't reach their full adult size and bone mineral density until they're around 19-20.
However, if Khelif does have a male DSD then not only... /12
...would they have continued growing taller until they were 17-18 years of age but the 'filling out' process through which males reach their full adult size and bone density typically continues on beyond that age and well into their 20s.
At 25 years of age, Khelif - if... /13
...they do have a male DSD - has only quite recently reached their full natural size and begun to experience the benefits of male puberty to their fullest extent.
/end
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I’m blocked so didn’t get to see Jolyon Maugham’s 34 tweet response to Professor Louis Appleby’s rebuttal of the his overblown and unevidenced claims about a surge in transgender deaths/suic*ides following the Bell v Tavistock case and the commissioning and publication of the Cass Review…
…other than the one where Jolyon Quixote started banging on about taking on the Trumps and the Putins and whatever.
TBF, I wouldn’t mind being a fly on the wall when the KGB tries to explain Jolly Foxbatterer to Vlad the Defenestrator, if only to find how to say ‘You fucking what???’ in Russian, but Maugham's descent into delusions of global importance are beyond the scope of this thread and more a matter for a competent psychiatrist. /1
So no direct Maugham debunking on this occasion but we do have a statement from Maugham’s partners in scaremongering, TransActual, to play with and it’s not Maugham’s own work then its work of someone who shares his inability to do basic research.
I’m going to skip the preamble because it is, of course, the ‘politicisation of trans young people’s healthcare’ to not only point out that Maugham and the Good Law Project have been making claims about an ‘explosion’ in deaths for which they can’t produce any confirmatory evidence but to have the absolute temerity to ask the *checks notes* Director of the National Confidential Inquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health to review Maugham’s claims against the evidence held by the Tavistock & Portman Trust and the National Child Mortality Database and publish a report of their findings. /2transactual.org.uk/blog/2024/07/2…
TransActual’s opening gambit, in addition to slipping in a couple of quote marks to denigrate Professor Appleby’s independence and professionalism, is to state that they have ‘significant concerns about the data used for the so-called “independent” report’ on the back of what one suspects is likely to be their own incompetence in filing FOI requests.
Appleby’s figures come from an internal audit at the Tavistock ordered by NHS England and covers the period from 2018/19 to 2023/24 based on the NHS year which, like the financial year and tax year, runs from April to March.
The audit found 12 recorded suic*des, six each in the under 18 age group and six in the 18 and over age group, the latter group being made up of ex-GIDS patients and people from the GIDS waiting list who were discharged on reaching 18 years of age, most likely to the waiting list of an adult GIC.
Five of those suic*ides occurred between April 2018 and March 2021, seven between April 2021 and March 2024, a small and statistically non-significant increase well within the realms of annual fluctuations in the suic*ide rate.
In the under 18s age group, three of the six suic*des occurred before the end of March 2021 and three in the period from April 2021 onwards, so no apparent change over time. /3
Okay, so I've noticed that its not just Jolyon Maugham and the Good Law Project that are actively promoting a completely misleading narrative about a number of suic*de deaths which are being presented as being 'related' to GIDS and changes in clinical practice resulting from the original Bell v Tavistock ruling and the commissioning of the Cass Review. /1
I've been actively investigating these claims and am working on a full write-up but thought I'd address a couple of things in advance of publishing the full piece.
What I have been researching, using a variety of source, are suid*ce or possible suic*de deaths of young people aged under 25 which occured between 2017 and 2024, looking specifically for any evidence of contact between the deceased and either GIDS or an adult gender clinic. /2
Of the 25 deaths I've been able to identify, only three can be linked specifically to GIDS - one was under the care of the Leeds GIDs clinic at the time of death, one had been on a GIDS waiting list before being moved to the waiting list for an adult GIC because of their age and the third was on the GIDS waiting list at the time of their death.
The next bit probably merits a content warning as I need to provide some info about each of these three cases. /3
- Genital tubercule and vestibular folds, which (in normal development) will develop into either the penis and scrotum (males) or the clitoris, labia minora and labia majora (females).
So, immediately before sex differentiation starts at 7 weeks...
I've had time to look a little bit more closely at the demographics of the CambU/BMJ paper I refer to in this thread and picked up a couple of points of interest, one of which may support Michale Biggs' contention that there may be some reliability issues with the Census... /1
One point I initally picked up was an apparent issue with the presentation of the age demographics in CambU's press release. This claims that trans/non binary people are more likely to be younger and supports that by stating... /2
...that "just under one in four (23.6%) trans and non-binary respondents was aged 16-34 years, almost double the proportion among other respondents (13.4%).".
The press release arrives at this by combining two age groups in the survey (16-24 & 25-34) and then comparising... /3
I've tracked down some advanced GK stats which offer some interesting insights into both the performance of our keepers this season and the difference that Carlos Corberan has made since taking over from Steve Bruce.
We're looking at Championship games here, so before... #wba
...last night, Button (DB) played all his games under Bruce while Palmer (AP) played 1 game under Bruce, 3 for caretaker manager Richard Beale and the rest under Corberan.
On the basics, goals conceded per 90 mins and save percentage, AP has a very clear lead over DB. ... #wba
...AP has conceded just 0.76 goals per 90 mins and saved 78.9% of the shots on target he's faced whille DB has conceded 1.46 goals per 90 mins with just a 52.2% save percentage.
So all the criticism levelled at DB is justified by the numbers, yes?
Okay, so who's up for a bit of Sunday morning stats nerdery?
I've been poking around in the Census 2021 data on Gender Identity and found a few interesting features that are worth commenting on.
Let's start with something I'll come back to later, the rate at which people... /1
...chose NOT to disclose any information in response to the Gender Identity questions, which was 5.73%.
Now this is not the only voluntary set of questions in the Census, respondants can also decline to answer the questions about religious belief and sexual orientation.... /2
...and the no response rates there are quite interesting because 5.99% of people opted to give no response to questions about religious belief, a quarter of percentage point more than those unwilling to disclose a gender identity.