Cook Political averaged out the crosstabs and has a comp to 2020. Interesting. Trump's already at his 2020 share while Harris, in her instant honeymoon that sees her with 91.4% of Dems *already*, is at just 46.1%. That's just from the partisan crosstabs, which are the most predictable and repeatable across polls. You can see she's already close to maxing with Democrats, and that defies conventional wisdom since she's only been the clear candidate for ~10 days. She's losing independents by 5 and there are only 10% undecided in that category, which again is very low.
Now I'm going editorialize a bit here and share an opinion: whatever the cause, seems like White voters and middle-age-group voters are the cause of her instant share gains over Biden. She might've pulled forward some Black and Hispanic and youth support, but it's way below Biden 2020 numbers.
So here she needs to hold her instant numbers with Seniors, persuade *more* Black and Hispanic and Youth voters, *and* still hold her instant support with Whites.
So here she needs to hold her instant numbers with Seniors, persuade *more* Black and Hispanic and Youth voters, *and* still hold her instant support with Whites.
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