Thread by @tylerblack32

❌Mythbusting❌
Youth suicide & COVID

❌Myth:
responses to COVID "caused" 🔼youth suicides

✅Reality:
We now have 4 years of pandemic data showing that school-aged youth did NOT have an increase in suicides; in fact, rates decreased 18.3% from recent trends AND averages.

/1

This is true for girls in the US (pretty much right on the 3-year average (-0.8%), and 16.3% less than expected from the 10-year trend).

/2

This is true for boys in the US (10% less than the 3-year average and 18.9% less than expected from the ten-year trend)

/3

This is true for elementary-school-aged children 5-12 years of age (a whopping 23.1% less than expected based off of the 10-year trend, and 6% less than the 3 year average)

/4

This is true for 13-year-olds (23.2% less than expected from 10-year trend, and 9% less than expected from 3-year average)

/5

This is true for 14-year-olds (12.2% less than expected from 10-year trends, and within 1% of the 3-year average)

/6

This is true for 15-year-olds (20.6% less than expected from 10-year trends, and 13% less than expected from 3-year average)

/7

This is true for 16-year-olds (17.4% less than expected from 10-year trends, and 10% less than expected from 3-year average)

/8

This is true for 17-year-olds (18.6% less than expected from 10-year trends, and 11% less than expected from 3-year average)

/9

This is true for 18-year-olds (11.8% less than expected from 10-year trends, and 8% less than expected from 3-year average)

/10

And this is true for 19-year-olds (11.9% less than expected from 10-year trends, and 4% less than expected from 3-year average)

/11

Due to statistical limitations, I had to group CDC races quite broadly. Boys labelled as white and non-Hispanic on their death certificate demonstrated a remarkable 24.3% and 11% reduction in suicides compared to the 10-year trend and 3-year average, respectively.

/12

Girls labelled as white and non-Hispanic on their death certificate demonstrated a 26.3% and 4% reduction in suicides compared to the 10-year trend and 3-year average, respectively.

/13

Boys labelled as Hispanic on their death certificate demonstrated a 16.1% and 11% reduction in suicides compared to the 10-year trend and 3-year average, respectively.

/14

Girls labelled as Hispanic on their death certificate demonstrated no change in suicides compared to the 10-year trend and 14% higher than the 3-year average.

/15

Boys labelled as Black and non-Hispanic on their death certificate demonstrated no change in suicides compared to the 10-year trend and 12% higher than the 3-year average.

/16

Girls labelled as Black and non-Hispanic on their death certificates fared the worst out of the analyses I ran, following the 10-year prepandemic trend (not statistically significant but 4% higher) and much higher than the 3-year average (23%).

/17

If anything, length of school closure in the US is associated with better trend comparisons. When controlled for race and urbanization, the states with the longest school closures performed better than the states with the shortest school closures.

/18

With now 4 years of pandemic data in the US, we can clearly state that the evidence does NOT support an association of suicide rates increasing with the pandemic or measures taken against it.

This claim is either misinformation or disinformation.

/19

The reprehensible advocates and politicians who wielded child suicides to advocate for pandemic measures ending should (but likely won't be) ashamed for their ghoulish behaviour.

/20

And on a very positive note, it appears that the US has now established a downward trend in youth suicides since 2018! Yay.

/fin

On a personal note, thank you to everyone who reached out to me in my absence. I truly appreciate all of your support.

Please keep this thread stored to battle the suicide misinformation that continues to swirl in the United States.