Thread by @HaroldWren22

A short thread on Israel/Iran situation as it stands. I promise I’ll be as brief as possible.
1. Iran used Hxmxs to start a war w/ Oct 7th invasion & crimes against humanity.

2. Iran & its proxy, hxmxs, thought they’d fortified Gaza so well that IDF/IAF would get bogged down in a bloody war, & threat from Iran’s other proxy, hezb. opening 2nd front would overwhelm israel.

3. The Iran Regime calculated that w/ near total sympathy from Biden/Harris regime & many of its assets in that regime, they could use that influence to control Israel, via US.

4. Israel is crushing gaza terror base efficiently. Hezb is unable to save or draw pressure from hxmxs terror base, gaza. Israel is killing proxy & iran terror leaders at prodigious rate.

5. Iran responded once w/ a full-scale attack on Israel itself, launched from Iranian forces & from Iran itself. This could have triggered a full scale war, but Israel acted with restraint.

6. Israel conducted a response attack that killed the nerve center of Iran’s most capable, valuable Air Defense site, guarding one of Iran’s most key nuclear bomb project sites, w/o warning & w/impunity.

This was a message to the Iran regime.

7. The killing of hxmxs leader Haniyeh in an IRGC safe house in downtown Tehran, the heart of the regime, was another message to the regime: if they can do that, they can get to Khameini himself & any other leadership in the regime.

8. No one (except Intelligence Agencies if major nations) really knows what Iran has planned- but the one possibility I’m going to speak about is if Iran repeats the kind of large scale attack it tried on Israel once already.

9. Regardless if the attack succeeds or fails, if Irans regime launches a large scale attack on Israel, the Israelis will not hold back in their response this time, & they will respond.

10. Russia, China, North Korea have been delivering weapons shipments for the past 96 hours, & from what i can tell, its deliveries of Electronic Warfare & IADS/SAM systems/supplies designed to beef up Iranian defenses.

11. This indicates to me Iran is anticipating a major Israeli response to whatever they’re gonna do. Here’s the problem: the most sophisticated system iran has is the S-300 SAM system, & even shored up w/ additional resources the Iranian Air Defense network cant stop the IAF.

12. In fact, without advanced raid warning from people on ground in Israel, Iran wont have much warning at all on target. And you cant move a lot of the irreplaceable high value Iranian targets like the nuclear bomb project sites.

13. The other problem Iran has is, Israel understands & knows about their evacuation & shelter procedures & locations for high value/rank regime personnel.

14. Israel doesn’t have to kill all of them; they simply need to kill enough of them, & damage facilities & personnel enough to inhibit the state security organs function, & the REGIME ITSELF will collapse.

15. Israeli decapitating strikes aimed at regime high ranking people & agencies can damage the regime enough to enable the Iranian PEOPLE to topple the regime.

16. The stakes for iranian regime are very, very high. If Iran’s impending attack raises to a level the Israeli government considers sufficient, it’s possible we could see the end of the regime as the long term result of this exchange.

@threadreaderapp unroll please.