Thread by @the_nazmul

🧵 Bangladesh’s Prothom Alo newspaper has a front-page story on the final moments of Hasina’s tenure. She insisted on using brute force until only 45 minutes before her departure; no amount of pleading from her aides and officials could persuade her to relent. 1/n

She was furious that the army wasn’t using [lethal] force to shield her from angry protesters, the report suggests.

Referring to the police, she urged the army to act similarly. She reminded the chief that she picked him as the chief over others and he should reciprocate. 2/n

But having led the country for over 20 years—more than a third of its history—she should have known better.

Yes, she lavished the military with largesse to secure their loyalty, but their loyalty had limits. 3/n

The unspoken understanding was that the military would not turn against her, even as her relentless power grab created numerous political crises and opportunities.

It never involved the army guaranteeing that it’d do whatever it takes to protect her and her regime. 4/n

When the chief assured his officers that the army wouldn’t fire bullets, she should have known it was over. She was well-versed in the country’s military traditions. She harbored deep-seated suspicions of the army due to its role in her family’s 1975 killings, yet she hoped… 5/n

.. of their protection.

She should’ve known it was over when students staged the largest mass rally in the country’s history to demand her resignation on Saturday.

After all, as an opposition leader, she was one of the fiercest mass mobilizers the country had ever seen. 6/n

But she persisted. 7/n

With police overwhelmed and army unwilling, she unleashed her own party cadres, armed with heavy weaponry, against the protesters.

This led to the worst day of political violence in Bangladesh’s history. And then a top party leader labeled the protesters as terrorists. 8/n

Had she announced her resignation on Saturday, the catastrophe on Sunday and Monday could have been avoided. Her party might still have had a future in Bangladesh. But the Sunday violence by her partymen sealed her fate, making a violent overthrow inevitable. 9/n

On Sunday, as protesters marched towards her residence, she urged the army to take a stronger stand.

Even her sister, Sheikh Rehana, couldn’t convince her to give up, per reports.

Only a call from her US-based son, Sajeeb Wazed, finally persuaded her to stand down. 10/n

She wanted to record a speech to the nation, but it was too late. Officials told her she had 45 minutes to leave. She barely had time to pack her bag. Such an unglamorous end for one of Asia’s most iconic political dynasties. 11/n

Meanwhile, some cabinet members and top party veterans were clueless. They hadn’t received a heads-up and believed Hasina would continue to persist.

Even until Sunday night, a cabinet minister told Western sources they were confident they could weather the storm. 12/n

Hasina’s last-minute escape was a disservice to her activists, who risked their lives countering protesters, an analyst said. He said she should have given them a heads-up so they could take precautions. Most AL leaders and activists had to go into hiding immediately. 13/n

For the nation, the 11th-hour decision caused the worst possible transition. A mob of millions was already on the streets. The army was not inclined to confront the crowd when it was trying to forge an emergency government by consulting opposition groups. 14/n

Thus, the chaotic scenes à la Sri Lanka emerged, with videos of the storming of Hasina’s residence, office, the parliament building.

There was literally no functioning government in effect. That still remains to be the case. 15/n

Meanwhile, as the army scrambled to form an interim government, they failed to consult major student protest leaders, who appeared on primetime TV to reject any army rule. Without their help, even the mighty army cannot tame the crowd. 16/n

With no one to control the wild mob, local Awami League leaders, police, and the RAB unit, known as Hasina’s brutal enforcers, are now ruthlessly being hunted down.

The Monday death toll stands at 135, but truth be told, I had feared even worse. 17/n

Incidents of vandalism targeting Hindu minority homes and places of worship were reported in 29 districts. However, many young Hindus played prominent roles in the protests.

Leaders from all political parties, including Islamists, condemned the violence against minorities. 18/n

Bangladesh now faces a four-way power struggle: the military, the center-right BNP, right-wing Islamists, and the precious student leaders. The students, without their own political party, have reportedly proposed Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus to lead a national government. 19/n

The students, mostly recent university graduates, show a willingness to share power by involving experienced politicians. There appears to be an alliance between traditional parties and students, agreeing that the army should play only a secondary role. 20/n

The chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, a mild-mannered officer who married one of Hasina’s second cousins, perhaps never wanted to be in this position. He now has to contend with multiple contrasting power players. 21/n

Some Hasina loyalist generals, for example, might push for him to take a stronger control — something perhaps India would also prefer.

But if all players act sensibly, there’s no reason why Bangladesh could not avoid full-fledged military rule or the rise of Islamists. 22/n

Despite the rapid collapse, Bangladesh has the resilience to rebuild quickly.

It’s a nation that endures annual disasters and stands up again.

Its leaders must act sensibly now, unify the nation, and steer it toward stability as quickly as possible. END/n