Christo Grozev Profile picture
Aug 7 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Putin has called an emergency meeting of the Russian security council today. While Russia's MoD has not yet acknowledged Ukraine's counter-incursion into Russia, Russian military telegram bloggers are sounding alarm (chart w/ scale of incursion from one of the telegram channels) Image
The MoD just came up with this bullsjit statement. Image
Putin says "the enemy has launched a large scale provocation". He expects the FSB to report to him soon what's happening, meantime orders locK authorities to take care of people.
Well, at least that settles the dispute whether it's small vs large scale.
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"Kursk direction - who will answer?" Is the new "What air defense doing?" Image
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More from @christogrozev

Aug 2
The following is simply an opinion on why Putin agreed (counterintuitively) to a swap deal before Trump came to power (which in Russian calculus has been a given for over a year). The Trump campaign has proposed that this was a sign of Putin's fear of a better-negotiating Trump.
Even colleagues and analysts not invested in Trump have posited that this was the result of "an unpredictable Trump" that the Kremlin is not comfortable with
As someone involved with the calculus for over 2 years, my answer is different. I believe the Kremlin finally realized Germany is not a pushover that will do what the US tells them to. (This took a lot of back channel explaining to seep through to Putin)
Read 6 tweets
Aug 2
.@IlyaYashin (who had explicitly asked not to be included into exchange lists as he didn't want to make Putin happy by leaving, I can confirm that), tells us how 2 days before the swap he was told to write a plea for clemency to Putin (1/2) Image
He refused. Said he would not plead to a war criminal. The next day they asked him again. Instead, he wrote this letter. It said "I refuse to be exchanged against my will as this is unconstitutional". Yet, he is here, "extradited, not swapped". Image
He says his first instinct was to turn around and go back to his homeland. Yet, he realizes that if he does that, this will mean an end to all future swaps. So he will stay here to fight for freedom of all political prisoners in Russia. "My goal so to go back to a free Russia"
Read 4 tweets
Aug 1
In a helmet with handcuffs in Ankara. Krasikov, one would assume. Image
A bunch of blown-cover deep-cover illegals: Mikhail Mikushin, Anna and Artem Dultsev and Pavel Rubtsov


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Read 4 tweets
Jul 25
How a drunken boast by an FSB agent lead to the failure of a secret mission with "serious consequences" for the Olympics: In English here: theins.press/en/politics/27…
In French with @lemondefr : lemonde.fr/societe/articl…
@lemondefr In German with @derspiegel spiegel.de/ausland/zugrif…
Read 4 tweets
Apr 3
In addressing the Havana Syndrome controversy, I'd stick to the old golden triangle for crime investigations: who had the Motive, Means and Opportunity - and if a suspect is found, does s/he have an Alibi (short thread)
In his February 2012 "election" platform essay, Putin wrote: Image
That same year, Putin created a military R&D program that was tasked with developing "directed energy weapons", among other "futuristic" weapons. This was clearly Putin's pet project. Image
Read 12 tweets
Nov 30, 2023
Our friends at @agents_media used recently hacked Russian airline booking data to prove what Polish authorities have claimed all along: that "Pablo Gonzales", aka Pavel Rubtsov, is in fact a GRU operative. They found joint flight bookings between him and GRU officer Sergey Turbin
What I can add is that Sergey Turbin is not just any GRU operative (as seen from his address registration at the GRU academy); he belongs to GRU's 5th Department, i.e. the one running the illegals program. His phone number appears in call records of members of the 5th department.
In particular, he made dozens of phone calls to Andrey Ilchenko, a top-ranking GRU general who oversees the illegals program - and who also supervised the so-called "Bonanza Media" project and ran a discreditation campaign against @Bellingcat
Read 5 tweets

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