Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Aug 8 1 tweets 3 min read Read on X
This fascinating Nature study (link in the bottom) by @jasonhickel and others should destroy for ever the myth that workers in the Global South "steal jobs" at the expense of the Global North.

They find an astonishing metric that "while Southern workers contribute 90% of the labour that powers the world economy, they receive only 21% of global income."

Meaning of course that the lifestyle of the North is subsidized by the work of the South: if we lived in a fair world, those contributing 90% of the labor should theoretically receive 90% of the income, not 21%... Concretely, the study calculates that "an extra 826 billion hours of Southern labour [the equivalent to 369 million workers] is effectively appended to Northern economies as invisible “ghost workers”, [which is] more than the total workforce of the United States and the European Union combined".

And before I hear you say "yes but it's all low skilled labor", that's not true at all. As per the study, "the South contributed the majority of labour across all skill levels: 76% of all high-skilled labour, 91% of medium-skilled labour and 96% of low-skilled labour". In fact, astonishingly: "the South now contributes more high-skilled labour to the world economy than all the high-, medium- and low-skilled labour contributions of the global North combined."

You could also say "yes but it's just a temporary situation: as global South countries develop they'll progressively become like the North", but that's precisely what this study shows is impossible because "the North’s development model relies on appropriation from elsewhere".

This implies two things: 1) the North has no incentive for the South to develop because their very model depends on appropriation from the South and 2) the South can't develop like the North because they have no South of their own to exploit. They need to find their own model that doesn't rely on exploitation, akin to China who developed with their own workers (and is progressively using more and more robots as its workforce gains in skills).

Also, the South catching up with the North is not the direction at all, except for some rare exceptions. The studies shows that, on average, "wages of Southern workers are 83–98% lower for work of equal skill within the same sector" and these wage gaps "have increased substantially over time, across all skill levels and all sectors, indicating a steady increase in absolute North–South income inequality".

So what's the solution? The study concludes that "development and poverty eradication, and any plausible trajectory for reducing global inequality, requires a shift in the balance of power between North and South, such that the latter is able to reclaim its productive capacities to meet human needs. Toward this end, international wage floors and minimum resource prices could help reduce price inequalities and limit value transfers. Ending unequal exchange will also require ending structural adjustment conditions on finance, and democratising the institutions of global economic governance, so that global South governments are free to use industrial, fiscal and monetary policy to pursue sovereign development and reduce their dependency on Northern capital. Such reforms are unlikely to be handed down from above, however. It will require a political struggle for national self-determination and economic sovereignty similar in scope to the anti-colonial movement of the 20th century."

Link to the study: nature.com/articles/s4146…Image
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More from @RnaudBertrand

Sep 27
A lot of sensationalist stuff gets written on China, and most of it is horsesh*t.

But rarely, some of it is true.

This is the story of a project on which 60,000 Chinese soldiers worked during 18 years in complete secrecy. It was simply known as the "816 project".

A 🧵 Image
I came across it yesterday, when looking for spots to visit around Chongqing.

About 150km East of the city, I noticed a place in the middle of the countryside simply called "816 Nuclear Military Plant".

My curiosity piqued, I looked into it and could barely believe it. Image
The project started in the 1960s, during the so-called Sino-Soviet split.

At the time, China had a problem: it had jointly developed its nuclear program with the Soviet Union and it urgently needed to have its own independent capabilities, developed in secure facilities.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 20
The resolution just passed by the EU Parliament on Ukraine is a sad illustration of how undemocratic and dangerously deluded it's become.

Undemocratic because it acts against the will of the people. Deluded because it asks for things everyone knows are impossible.

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First of all, what do Europeans want? All the surveys are crystal clear (for instance this recent one by @EurasiaGroup 👇): approximately two-thirds of Europeans want their leaders to "push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine". Image
Yet what does the resolution (which passed with a 425 -131 vote) say?

It calls for "support in every possible way until Ukraine’s victory", which it defines as "allowing Ukraine to liberate all its people, re-establish full control within internationally recognised borders"
Read 13 tweets
Sep 18
Interestingly, there's a Taiwan angle to the pager terror attack by Israel: according to the NYT () the pagers were made in Taiwan and Hezbollah had ordered the pagers from a Taiwanese company called "Gold Apollo".

Israel and Taiwan have been forging a closer relationship lately (see this interesting article about it: ), mostly because their fate is in many ways closely linked, as Mao once said "Israel and Taiwan are bases of operation for imperialism in Asia. They created Israel for the Arabs and Taiwan for us. They both have the same objective". And I think they are each well aware that the fall of one would make the position of the other more fragile, as it would set a precedent.

So not too big a stretch to think that Taiwan could have assisted Israel in this terror attack. Although it of course needs to be confirmed (and probably never will be...).

And by the way, yes, it absolutely is a terror attack, although obviously no Western media is going to call it that:
- There was obvious intent to inflict maximum casualties and psychological impact
- The attack was indiscriminate in that Israel had no way of knowing who was in the vicinity of all the devices were when they got detonated, and as a matter of fact the attack did cause many civilian casualties (the dead include a 10 year old girl, and the wounded hundreds of civilians)
- It occurred outside of a war zone and was a blatant violation of another state's sovereignty (Lebanon) in an action obviously not sanctioned by the UNnytimes.com/2024/09/17/wor…
middleeasteye.net/news/israel-ta…Image
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Update, the founder of Gold Apollo, the Taiwanese company says they didn't make the pagers: "The product was not ours. It was only that it had our brand on it." ()

He said that the model was produced and sold by a company called "BAC" and "declined to comment on BAC's location" 🤷‍♂️reuters.com/world/middle-e…
The optics clearly don't look good for Gold Apollo: its name and brand are on the devices and it's written "Made in Taiwan"...

They've also taken their entire company website offline...
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Read 4 tweets
Sep 16
Just finished reading "Alone on the Great Wall" by William Lindesay, a Brit who ran the entire Great Wall in 1987.

A fascinating read in so many ways, mostly because it illustrates the immense changes in China since then, but also what remained the same.

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The story, to summarize it in a few words, is about him attempting (and succeeding!) to run the entirety of the Great Wall, from the fortress of Jiayuguan in the West of China all the way to Shanhaiguan on the Yellow Sea in the East of the country, some 2,500km.
The main issue he had was that China - under Deng Xiaoping at the time - was almost completely closed to tourism: over 90% of the miles he'd have to run were situated in areas forbidden for foreigners to visit.
Read 23 tweets
Sep 9
Yet another exceedingly bad China take by Noah Smith. I remain genuinely puzzled how anyone still gives the light of day to someone so consistently wrong 🤷

Here's why he's wrong here on Tesla in China 🧵 Image
First of all, as Elon Musk himself writes in a reply to his post 👇, his premise is wrong: Tesla's gigafactory in Shanghai is running at max capacity.

Can't really do more than that...
As I myself calculated based on the factory's August numbers 👇, it is outputting so many cars it corresponds to an insane 60% of Tesla's global deliveries!

Looking at facts, Tesla is outputting more cars in China than in the rest of the world combined.
Read 16 tweets
Sep 5
This is genuinely extraordinary: the latest ASPI Critical Technology Tracker is out and China is now in the lead for an incredible 57 out of the 64 key technologies of the future, i.e. 90% of the technologies.

The US leads the other 7.

A small 🧵 of what's in the report Image
First of all, what's ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute)?

It's a quasi-governmental Australian defense think-tank that's largely funded by the Australian and US military-industrial complex.

In other words, they're very much NOT pro-China, quite the contrary...

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And what's the Critical Technology Tracker?

ASPI basically identified the 64 critical technologies of the future (AI, biotechnology, EV batteries, etc.) and built a dataset to understand which countries and institutions produce the most innovative and high-impact research. Image
Read 19 tweets

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