Jason Kint Profile picture
Aug 8, 2024 33 tweets 13 min read Read on X
wow. an amazing 325 page google strategy document quietly unsealed buried in google antitrust docket. It's gonna take a long thread but I have pulled out the gems. It's from 2017 planning, no doubt Google will just say these were only ideas but many will look very familiar. /1 Image
For more than a decade, Google has been shifting revenue away from rest of the web to its own properties where it doesn't have to share any of it (I share a chart every earnings backing this up). But here it is spelled out by their own employees as the intentional strategy. /2 Image
In a sea of project code names, "Narnia 2.0" is all over this document. The great Julia Angwin reported late in 2016 on how Google changed its policy merging users' anonymous browsing with PII and search activity creating a single profile/cookie. Now read the yellow highlight. /3 Image
Google pitched it as simplifying privacy settings enabling a single opt-out interface for users. Now note these docs suggest real goal was to be tracking 1B users by 2017 at <20% opt-out rate.
It was their goal to convert users to tracking (which most Google users don't want). /4 Image
People too often think Google's analytics and network ad biz are just bolt-on, small businesses. Not the case, the goal was to create essentially a walled garden of the entire web with persistent PII and tracking across our entire lives. "Our New Network" as they stated here. /5 Image
Project Narnia2 allowed for a single look across web and G properties. "LTV" came up in the search lawsuit they just lost as allowing to manipulate auctions by not solely using bid price. Here it appears this allowed them to shift revenue to gmail where they keep 100%. /6 Image
Where Google may argue they are the caretaker of the open web, that’s a lie. It’s been evident over the years they dominate discovery, design, data collection and monetization in a way that they can make sure they rarely lose. User trust can't be bound by revenue neutrality. /7 Image
For the news orgs and journalists who have been working to find a sustainable business model supported by your audiences, you need to know Google in this strategy document puts subscriptions (eg FT, WSJ) under the heading of "Threats to the Open Web." /8 Image
Not only does Google look at subscriptions in the doc as a threat to them and the open web but they also see privacy as a competitive threat...to surveillance. "These actors can inhibit our ability...to use identity to improve the quality of ads, constraining our business." /9 Image
"Publishers may give us data..." is how Google describes its surveillance across a majority of webpages, mobile phones, locations, as you browse the web. When GDPR rolled out, Google famously gave no other options. They are data thiefs imho. /10 Image
Let's just say I am super interested in the "remaining 20% whitelisted" here. A reminder Facebook's whitelisting of partners while under consent decree was a part of why it ended up in a $5B settlement. /11 Image
We've done our own research on how users feel about Google tracking them across the web (see Chrome sync) and Android. Read the yellow closely and you tell me how you feel about this two-time monopolist surveillance capitalist you can't avoid. /12 Image
Ever wonder why agencies and major advertisers rarely cross Google? At adtech antitrust trial 9/9, expect major agencies and advertisers are chilled by Google. Why? They may get special data privileges from Google. eg here appears to be P&G, Omincom. x-device? /13 Image
On the adtech antitrust trial, google will try to drive a narrative that they can just jettison a part of their network ad stack but reality is, on top of the surveillance data we've noted, Google also notes the strategic advantages (eg blend higher quality inventory). /14 Image
I will be shocked if this isn't an exhibit during trial (if it's not then they just have too much evidence),
"solve operational efficiency...and capture a portion of the value as higher fees, improvising overall margins."
"only possible when you control both buy & sell sides" /15 Image
So this bit here will undermine Google's argument that owning the entire stack makes advertising much better. Google states very clearly despite its own ubiquitous role, "Advertising is failing consumers, failing publishers, and failing advertisers." /16 Image
They say the quiet part out loud again, "we've implemented few standards for ad experiences beyond spam and fraud detection..." One may ask whether that is because they make more margin by a web driven by microtargeting users without the lower margins of quality experiences. /17 Image
Unless they can leverage youtube to shift brand spend intentionally. Google had some bad news reports earlier in the year for running major brands across their network including some really toxic sites - some even sanctioned if I recall correctly. /18 Image
A couple fun ones. For the folks who recall CBA - claimed to be an industry-wide, organic effort to improve ad experiences as a response to ad blocking. It turns out it was a Google-originated project. I'm fairly certain this document pre-dates the pitch from Venable. /19 Image
For those who know Richard Gingras, who served as a front man to the news industry protecting Google for more than a decade. He also ran their free news site with no ads that aggregated the rest of the web. Apparently still "struggling to build a compelling property." /20 Image
DOJ had to laugh at this exhibit (it came over from the Texas AG lawsuit) as Google repeatedly tried to suggest "the marketing funnel" wasn't a thing any more in the search trial it just lost. Their own people describe it right here. So it must be a thing. /21 Image
On a last funny note, all the docs in this thread, just came out as Google tried to keep an expert witness out of the trial by arguing "open web display advertising" is not actually a thing. Unfortunately for them they use the term all over these documents! I know, comical. /22 Image
One other more recent 2020 document includes some interesting charts including this one again showing how Google dominates all sides of the market. /23 Image
They also were clearly concerned about two projects called "Swiss Knife" which they would actually go in and terminate publishers from their adsense network. That plus ITP (Apple's privacy protection) had caused a 6% revenue hit apparently. /24 Image
Here is a link to the 300+ page strategy document. The adtech geeks should enjoy it. /25 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
A few other docs. Google's 2022 assessment of Apple's plans in its ads biz. In the comments, two years ago, it expects to essentially lose the basis of its lawsuit (buying off Apple for search traffic). They estimate this as 15% of APPL profits. /26 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Image
Our Canadian friends may appreciate this 2021 document analyzing Google's programmatic business north of the border including the critical trojan horse of GA4 to enable user consent if privacy laws advance. /27 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Image
Monopoly much. /28 Image
Sort of fun to see Facebook working to scramble in a statement and send background information to the NYT to deal with rising news reporting on the "duopoly" and potential harms of their market power. Oops. /29 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Image
January 2019 Display Highlights from inside of Google. These are the docs showing revenues, and profits, migrating to the O&O properties. This has been a trend for more than a decade. I don't believe it's anything but intentional. /30 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Image
Now one for my European friends. A whole lot of interesting analysis and internal strategy discussion for display biz in here post-GDPR. /31 storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Image
Here is a link to the @JuliaAngwin report I referenced early on about merging PII with anonymous browsing which I am now fairly certain is the “Project Narnia 2.0” in the document. I expect this to come up at trial for sure. /32 propublica.org/article/google…
@JuliaAngwin over and out. hopefully this was useful in getting some of this info into public interest as we’re approaching Sept 9th where we’ll need to have as many independent adtech minds and journalists covering the details of the approaching $300B Twice Monopolist juggernaut. /33 /eof

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jason Kint

Jason Kint Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jason_kint

Apr 15
Day 2. A few comments after 2nd day of testimony from Mark Zuckerberg. FTC began with impeachment as Zuckerberg had said yesterday friends & family were only about 25% of Stories shared when instead it appears more in 63-73% range. I would hammer him on these, it's a pattern. /1
Remember, we've learned from MZ's deposition to SEC and many trips to Congress, he may say too much and seems to talk his way through problems. Speaking of... USvGoogle on the weight of contemporaneous statements is already a massive shadow over MZ. /2 Image
I think MZ has a tell. He often says, "Well that is an interesting question" when asked about his prior contemporaneous statements on fairly obvious questions such as "Is it true that Facebook users like less ads in their feeds?" /3
Read 10 tweets
Apr 15
with FTC's opening statement slides (109 of them over 86 minutes IYKYK)) now posting, I want to flag just a few of them worth amplifying. /1 Image
These two statements from Judge Boasberg his denial of Meta's motion to dismiss last November will weigh heavily on Facebook imho. The evidence from both the Instagram deal and WhatsApp deal are damning considering just these two bullets. /2 Image
This slide (and the next one) were interesting in getting internal reflections of Meta/Facebook forcing more ads into the Instagram experience. /3 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 14
FTC v Meta Day 1. Opening arguments for FTC laid out its case. As predicted, Meta tried to blow hole into market definition. This actually comes later in trial so not dwelling but will add some context at end. But first witness 1 was CEO Zuckerberg. Dead to rights on conduct. /1
Internal Facebook employee messages (some we've previously seen plus plenty more) make the Instagram deal clearly anticompetitive conduct imho. Exhibits may not post until Wed so my quotes are my best snapshots from messages in exhibits on screens. Relay with care. I tried. /2
Zuckerberg has testified for only 3 hrs of FTC's estimated 7hrs so he's back on stand tomorrow at 9:30am ET (remember, Careless People book said he hates mornings). FTC has been systematically laying out timeline of Facebook shift to mobile and acquisition of Instagram. /3
Read 22 tweets
Apr 9
As Meta’s Andy Stone works overnight criticizing whistleblower testimony today on their role in China, let’s not forget Meta worked furiously thru billions in settlements to keep sealed it provided data access to 86,961 developers in China unsealed after court sanctions in 2023. Image
That slide is from their own internal audit. The one they promised the public and Congress in testimony then buried it including fighting to keep the forensic clean up artists aka auditors under seal, too, until an attorney said it in open courtroom. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.usco…
Here is Stone’s statement this morning. He has a track record burying for his bosses so just think it’s important context when he tries to brush aside China. Thank you @HawleyMO for accountability here. nbcnews.com/tech/social-me…Image
Read 6 tweets
Apr 3
Pretrial orders starting to give taste as to why WSJ reports Mark Zuckerberg is meeting Pres. Trump desperately trying to settle its FTC lawsuit 11 days from trial. Court just ordered Meta to release all internal discussions of "integrity" issues up until 2020. That's toxic. /1 Image
Also included is evidence as to what appears to be Apple warning Facebook/Meta to address CSAM on WhatsApp chat groups. Remember, advertisers built this company investing hundreds of billions of dollars to support it. /2 Image
On that note, we will also likely see the financials for WhatsApp which was acquired by Facebook for nearly $19B despite almost no revenues. The why this happened will be a key argument in the court room. /3 Image
Read 4 tweets
Mar 18
The American values of IP protection have been a cornerstone in the country’s innovative spirit and competitive edge over foreign adversaries. DCN focused on strong copyright protections in our comments filed for the AI Action Plan. Will share some thoughts here. /1
Weakening copyright protections, whether at home or abroad, threatens US economic growth and the global competitiveness. Importantly, this point is inclusive of content creators across all platforms. The invented "right to learn" by machines is BS spin from OpenAI and Google. /2
Simply put, AI firms must not use copyrighted content without consent or compensation, as this undermines fair competition and creator rights. And they should be required to disclose when they've used it without consent. /3
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(