Austin Campbell Profile picture
Aug 8 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
0/ Today, we are forced to return to an incredibly unfortunate subject: Operation Chokepoint 2.0.

I will include the press release from the Federal reserve at the end of this thread, along with @nic__carter's original article on OCP 2.0.
1/ So let's start with a quick summary. After the carnage of 2022 in crypto markets, and the belated realization by banking regulators that crypto was a risk, they came to a couple of determinations that have proven incredibly toxic (and maybe illegal):
2/ First, that crypto itself somehow poses a risk to the banking system. Ironically, the reverse of this has actually been demonstrated in practice (SVB posing a risk to @circle, though it is fair to criticize the latter for leaving a large uninsured deposit balance there).
3/ Second is that BSA/AML controls throughout the crypto space were deeply insufficient.

Third is that the solution to this was to remove crypto from the US banking system (as if pushing it to the Eurodollar market would make it go away, which is just repeating past mistakes).
4/ The problem this creates is one of discretion. Under the current BSA/AML standards, all banks are essentially non-compliant. Certainly at least under the standards being applied to crypto. This means that in each case where a regulator chooses to lean on this as a concern, there will be superficial evidence that allows them to proclaim those actions are justified.

Here, I am close to 100% certain that Customers will have BSA/AML failures that rise to the level of supervisory action, without knowing anything about Customers or their platform specifically. Why? Because this is true of all banks! It is true of First National, it is true of Citi, it is true of PNC, it is true of SoFi. Why? Because they are banks and the rules are essentially that if bad things happen with even $1, we can act.
5/ So why is that bad? I would suggest it would not be bad if the rules were applied fairly, but given there have been giant settlements between ABN, Deutsche, Citi, HSBC, etc. for money laundering and BSA/AML issues, none of which were shut down, and that the design of the programs themselves remain largely the same and completely and totally ineffective at deterring bad actions from a systemic perspective, it's pretty clear the rules are not applied fairly.

Instead, they are used as a pretext to go to institutions doing something else that a banking regulator does not like, and under that pretext, shut it down.

Don't believe me? There is a very large foreign bank that wanted to bid on Signet during the bankruptcy of Signature Bank, something that would have added value to the estate and made whole depositors, creditors, and equity holders, and they were arbitrarily banned from doing this by the FDIC.

This is a direct assault on specific activities that regulators don't like because they don't like an industry, and in conflict with their duties as regulators to provide a fair, safe system.
6/ The second layer of the badness is that, hilariously, the exact action they are trying to interdict (fast payments to settle blockchain trades) are preventing a system from operating which is better and more transparent for the goal of preventing financial crime!

"No, no, no!" they scream, forcing banks to shut down these platforms that feed into public blockchains where profoundly evil groups like Hamas get <1% of their funding (and we know that because we can see it).

"Also you are fine," they say to the dark box they can't see into where the other 99% of funding goes to these entities.

It is a tech-illiterate stance that increases, not decreases, both the probability and magnitude of financial crime. It is security theater, where if you can see the problem, it's a problem, but if you can't, nobody cares so crime away as much as you want!

Maybe they will fine you occasionally, but can anyone please find me a list of all the US bank executives in jail for BSA/AML violations? Thanks!
7/ So here today, we see the news that Customers has been singled out for specifically this kind of activity (while, hilariously, things like the Evolve bank situation being documented by @mikulaja are not being handled with nearly this degree of alacrity despite destroying lives), but many other banks with similar levels of controls problems (or, likely, much worse) not being subjected to this sort of pressure.

This is after Signature and Silvergate were hit for the same, and others (who I will not name for their safety but I personally know) have been banned from starting RTP networks for this purpose.
8/ It all leads back to the inference that Nic made in the OCP 2.0 article: this behavior can only be rationally explained by straight up animus towards crypto and regulators being unwilling or unable to grapple with the reality of new technology. It is a deeply technophobic stance, as the brilliant and outspoken @sultanmeghji has written about previously. And it is one that risks crippling the US banking system as we (attempt to) move into the future.
9/ Here, along with the conduct of the SEC, is where I personally find the actions of the current Federal agencies most reprehensible. I am a pro-regulation person. I am also deeply anti-financial crime.

This is why I support blockchains as a better tool to find and interdict those things.

However, our regulators have been completely unwilling to grapple with this and instead fall back on a legacy system we know is rife with fraud, simply because they know that system and inhibit change.
10/ If you want to know why the current administration is so loathed by entrepreneurs, financial professionals, and all of the good actors in the fintech space, this is why. This hysterical throwing of 8 different babies out with the bathwater simply leaves consumers either in an extortionate, broken legacy system or going offshore with far less rule of law (see: FTX) to get damaged.

We should not, and cannot, tolerate that kind of conduct from our Federal agencies. We can do better. We can re-think the rules. We have a live example of that right now with the FTC under Lina Khan and their excellent work around non-competes and revising antitrust policy!

So today, I shake my head at this, and wonder how we got here, where it's fine to give Hamas as much money as you want so long as you do it through the traditional system (because nobody will look, given the system is designed so that they can't), but God have mercy on your soul if you look at a blockchain even once.
Appendix 2/



@micsolanapiratewires.com/p/crypto-choke…

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More from @CampbellJAustin

Aug 9
0/ I want to echo @ccatalini here and double down:

When in history has it been a good idea to stand in front of technological progress and shout stop?

Historically, that's been a great way to get run over by the speeding train of human ingenuity. Not pleasant!
1/ In particular, the reason this is going to look so foolish is not some of the things you will hear from the OG crypto libertarian cohort (#BTC, as much as I think it's cool and is an interesting innovation, is not on the path to become money globally, ht: @GeorgeSelgin).
2/ Instead, the reason is that it fixes some of our biggest remaining issues from the 2008 financial crisis (and some earlier ones) and solves a problem that has yet to be solved: global economic coordination across a ledger.

There are three big elements to this:
Read 12 tweets
Jul 28
0/ So @GaryWinslett recently asked for a defense of crypto and why he, as a well-situated middle class American who largely thinks our system works, should believe in it or support it. I think that’s a totally legitimate question to ask, and one that cuts to the heart of why the debate has been so broken.

I think it was also asked in good faith, so I believe it deserves a real answer. One of my criticisms of the crypto space is that CT has a bad habit of just screaming at people instead of actually debating real concerns and questions, and I don't want to behave like that myself. Thus, I am going to endeavor to answer Gary in a few parts, and specifically point to some things I think align with the worldview of many antitrust folks, YIMBYs, classic liberals, and those who care about financial inclusion.

In other words, good question Gary, and I am glad you asked.
1/ One important thing to remember is that the starting point here is not neutral. The current position of the American government with regard to crypto is hysterically against. @SGJohnsson has a good thread on the receipts that I will put in the appendix of this post, so without turning this into a very long post about the wrongdoing of the Obama administration with regard to crypto, it’s important to understand that the current position of the administration is this:

If you have a token, you are a security, and there is no functional way to register or trade tokens as security, so your only recourse is to shut down. This is both unsupported by law (and if you don’t believe me, please read @NYcryptolawyer's scholarship on this issue) and a backdoor ban by the SEC without any legislative or commercial purpose behind it.

Also you’re not allowed to have a bank account. No, literally, the FDIC went around pressuring banks to close the accounts of almost all crypto companies in the wake of the 2022 events (and if you don’t believe me, read @nic__carter's piece on Operation Chokepoint 2.0, the details of which will shock you). This is the equivalent behavior to, when Bernie Madoff turned out to be a giant fraud, running around to all American banks to have them shut down the accounts of asset managers.

Additionally, Biden has been actively blocking all attempts to unwind what is, essentially, an extra-judicial blockade against the space. Biden vetoed the SAB-121 repeal, a custody rule promulgated by the SEC that bans people from doing crypto custody and, to make it even better, puts the assets of customers of crypto custodians at risk during a bankruptcy by making it entirely possible they are not bankruptcy remote. This is an anti-secure custody rule! And the Biden administration blocked the repeal, which was bipartisan!

Finally, if you look at the enforcement actions in the space, there have been a number of massive frauds: 3 Arrows Capital, Celsius, Terraform Labs, FTX, etc. How many of those were enforced against? Zero, until very far after the fact in a few lagging cases, and those mostly by the DoJ! Who did they enforce against? Coinbase, Kraken, Consensus, etc. Can anyone tell me what the logic is of an executive effort that specifically lets criminals go free until it blows up so much it hits the press, but attempts to prosecute those trying to obey the law and treat customers well? It’s hard to perceive that as legitimate.

In some cases, the administration itself is the criminal. The SEC was sanctioned for committing perjury in the Debt Box case, both forcing a whole project offshore and damaging the participants while lying to a Federal judge in such spectacular fashion that the entire Salt Lake City office of the SEC has been shut down after sanctions being levied against them. Again, none of that is hyperbole. This happened.

So my first point to people with the same question as Gary would be this: you may think your default stance is not caring, but your default stance is actually a complete disregard of constitutional rights and instead support for an extrajudicial, highly illegal, and incredibly stupid (if you don’t believe me, and you are a Democrat, imagine the Trump administration about to run this playbook against green energy, abortion providers, public sector unions, etc. and pointing at literally what Biden did as precedent) campaign against the industry.

TL;DR: we are not starting from zero. You’re actually on the side of a jihad against this technology, with the base assumption that it’s not just silly and useless, but evil on par with North Korea.
2/ Do you believe you should have to lend money to a real estate billionaire at below market rates to buy a coffee?

If you didn’t answer yes to that, you are actually opposed to the current structure of the financial system. When I say that kind of thing, most people look at me like I’ve grown a second head. However, this is precisely how the current system works, and reveals a point that I think most people don’t understand: our current banking structure is set up to hide the volatility and cost from the average user, so that you are the frog being slowly boiled and you don’t realize what is happening until it is too late.

This is such a long topic I’m writing a book that has multiple chapters about it (spoiler alert), but let me try to hit some key points here.

The first is that money in a bank is not safe.

I know I’m going to get a small army of objections about how as long as you are under $250k the FDIC will save you, but I’m going to raise two points in response to that. One is that for many small to medium businesses, this is simply not possible, and it’s not that they are rich - if you are in a high turnover, low margin business like a supermarket, you probably blow through that limit regularly but your actual net profit is far below it. So what’s the solution for you? There is none. Two is that the FDIC itself is not infinite and the insurance fund is certainly not sufficient to cover all, most, or even some of the deposits on an aggregate basis in the financial system. This means the FDIC is reliant upon good risk management at member banks, bailouts in the case of severe issues, and effective resolution of failed banks, all of which gets way harder in a crisis situation and requires some exceptional steering to survive. I’m lucky enough to know @SheilaBair2013, so let me tell you that this view does not start with me, and we still have 2008-era issues to chew on here that should be taken seriously and fixed!

You also often hear the cry of “well, you should due diligence your bank to make sure it is safe”, and I am here to tell you that is pants-on-head level crazy. Most people are just completely flying blind on this. I’ll remind the crowd that long, long before I was ever in crypto I traded one of the most bank capital focused trading books in the entire world (Bank Owned Life Insurance wraps, if we want to really go into the dark forest of finance), and I spent roughly 80-100 hours a week thinking about this problem and still couldn’t fully figure out the capital position and solvency of many banks. Did I have a decent guess? In many, but not all cases. Did I know for sure? No.

Thus, unless you genuinely believe that, in order to be allowed to have a bank account, the guy running the aforementioned supermarket should also have to become a bank capital expert solid enough to compete with psychopaths like me running trading books on the street, this is a complete lunatic position to hold (also where are they getting the time to run their actual business?). Don’t believe me? I dare you to go read some 10-Ks and Qs for banks. Let me know who YOU think the 5 most at-risk banks are for collapse in the next three months. Let’s see how good your results are and how long it takes you to figure that out. And if you don’t want to or don’t think you can, I actually agree that’s the smart thing to do. For anyone who doesn’t have this as a full time job, it’s a waste of time for nearly zero return.

Here’s the problem: our system is also based on the idea that you have to do this! Our regulators, in their wisdom, have decided to shut down better options within the banking sector itself for safe banking, as we can see from the sad story of things like the Narrow Bank or @CaitlinLong_'s Custodia. As a result, we have some hybrid solutions (like being able to pay for things with a money market fund through a debit card - Fidelity has a good solution for this that will be in a future article I’m writing about financial market structure), but currently, this brings us back to the first question I asked here: when you leave money in a bank, they make risky loans with it, often in the real estate space. This is the price of admission. You are exposed to that risk, the bank pays you 0% for it in most cases, but if the bank fails, you lose your money. Is that a fair trade? No. Oh, and the executives largely keep their giant bonuses at your expense.

It happens because we have given banks a monopoly on the payments system. Why did we do that?

That’s a great question. I'm not sure there is a good answer.
Read 9 tweets
Jun 13, 2023
1/ A brief 🧵here as Gabe hits at the core of my concerns with the SEC approach.

The SEC is, allegedly, a regulator charged with protecting the integrity of markets. This includes protecting investors from scams, conmen, misinformation, etc. It includes policing insider trading.
2/ It also includes liquidity, capital formation, and the general well-functioning of markets, either explicitly or implicitly (as blowing up market liquidity is sure not investor protective).

Given that things like IPOs and companies are long-term investments and the kinds of
3/ things that need clear rules of the road to operate, implicit in the SEC's mandate is that they need to actually make clear how all these things work. "Strategic ambiguity" serves only to inflate the ego and potential power of the SEC. It is, with certainty, damaging to
Read 7 tweets
May 2, 2023
1/ Some brief thoughts with a bit of a focus on crypto with regard to the action in banks today. First, the overall problem we are facing with banks is on the asset side of the balance sheet. Rising rates mean that fixed rate instruments (bonds, loans, etc.) have all declined
2/ in value. Any forced liquidations of those prior to maturity realize losses. Similarly, a lot of sectors of the lending market look shaky to varying degrees: commercial real estate, autos, etc. What this means is that there is a lot and growing worry about the quality and
3/ sufficiency of assets on bank balance sheets. With where the problems are, the issues are worse for the regional bank crowd (see who has already gone down) and the mid-tier banks than for the super large banks (deposits too sticky) and, ironically, the tiny banks and credit
Read 8 tweets
Apr 28, 2023
1/ Today, I finished teaching the final class of the semester in my blockchain course along with my co-professor Gur Huberman at Columbia. A couple of observations on teaching in the space, and some thoughts on what it means overall:
2/ First, my students are smart, motivated, and curious. This was a late Thursday afternoon, filled with 2nd year B-school students (which for those of you who don't know, I can say having gone to b-school myself that means you are totally checked out and ready to party before
3/ starting a new career), and we had basically perfect attendance (including one person joining from zoom because they were still at Consensus!). What?! Being real, this tells you a lot about the level of interest in the space and how much belief there is in a future that is
Read 8 tweets
Apr 21, 2023
1/ I told my class yesterday that MiCA might be the most significant development in crypto for the next two years. If the details work out (always TBD as they implement), the EU has created a framework to formalize how crypto works in the largest economic block to effect such
2/ rules. In the past, when Europe has taken these steps, normally they have been surpassed as a place for innovation by the United States. However, in this case, the hysterical response towards a new technology by US regulators and some politicians means that the EU has a
3/ massive advantage (unless MiCA is truly broken in ways I am not aware of yet) in the short to medium term. The longer that advantage persists, the longer it will take to overcome if the United States ever manages to act, which I don’t think is a foregone conclusion.
Read 4 tweets

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