Thread by @wabdoteth

pumpdotfun is the opensea of this cycle but it's not exactly the same

the problem with opensea was they they conducted their tax farm on users and effectively slow rugged both their investors and their users by shipping features nobody wanted, and at a snail's pace while executives drained the treasury with salaries, bonuses, etc

pumpdotfun is different since they're shipping things that are attempting to grow the pie and turn memecoins into a viral sensation (SOL rewards for bonding, zero coin creation fee, livestreaming/social)

there is no other team putting out features that people enjoy using this quickly — the business is doing what the business is supposed to do, serve its audience and community while increasing profits

you can't really be mad at them

but people will be, obviously, because pumpdotfun is going to end up with billions of $ of profit by the end of this cycle and users are going to be left holding their figurative dicks in their hands, wondering where all their unrealised gains went

which is their own fault but nobody wants to take accountability

so people will call for lower fees and a token which (probably) won't happen because the business wont want to reduce their profit margins and create risk via a token without a reason to

as long as pump holds market dominance as the main memecoin launchpad they have zero incentive to launch a token which is true for almost any protocol in crypto that has a monopoly

as a trader, you can't control any of this, so what do you do now? there are so many coins and it's getting increasingly hard to get an edge, and anytime you make profit it's probably one of your friends from the group chat on the other side of the table

seeing a lot of tweets from the founders and other KOLs that there needs to be a "flight to quality" which sounds great in theory but users rarely behave that way and the rhetoric is very reminscent of late 2021/22 NFTs where people tried to launch a coordinate effort to consolidate liquidity into meanwhile everyone was still gambling on new mints reached further along the risk curve i.e. lower market cap with higher upside, and marked those bags as long term / conviction buys

this is how the blame game starts "we should've bought but people didn't and now all prices are lower"

anyway, memecoins have still proven themselves to be the best investment this cycle and act as SOL / ETH beta since there's nothing to really buy so we still need to buy something

where should you park your funds?

$BONK? Which got cannibalised by $WIF?

$WIF? Which got cannibalised by $BILLY?

$BILLY? Which might get cannibalised by $someothercuteanimal?

it's hard to make a real bet on consensus within a market that is so competitive and brutal whilst liquidity is being slowly harvested and pulled by platforms and devs

my .eth copium is that there will be a flight to quality, it just wont predominantly exist on solana mainly because of solana's insanely PvP environment whereas on ethereum it's pretty much consensus to pile your longs into $PEPE or $MOG every time there is a market bounce, and there are close to zero new coins draining liquidity

i.e. the consolidation of liquidity on ethereum is a market force rather than a social agreement like on solana, which makes it infinitely more reliable to bet on

note: this isn't a solana memecoin bearpost, i think many will go up and i hold the ones i mentioned but they will just increasingly rely much more on SOL going up

TLDR for people that spent too much time in the pumpdotfun trenches: