Thread by @BigManBakar

Content overview - A thread

Greetings everyone. Provided below is more of my work during pre-season which you might find useful in building your GW 1 squad:

Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️

#FPL #FPLCommunity

Btw, one resource I actually use throughout the season is LazyFPL.

They package all the essential news, stats and tips into an email sent 24h before every deadline.

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If you want to follow my team, I will be sharing my team & transfers in advance before every GW this season.

You’ll get a FULL REFUND if you don’t win your mini-league! Unreal, that! 😲

50% DISCOUNT available before the GW1 deadline as well!! 👇

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakar-te…

CONTENT ON ATTACK

The the idea of including both Haaland and Salah my team is something I have not personally considered, as I believe it compromises the rest of the team too much.

Since you would have to spend 27.5% of your budget on just two of your 15, I believe it leaves behind a weak bench, coupled with the possibility of a few weak starters.

I personally believe that the Salah drafts are better than the Haaland drafts on paper, as they allow you to get either an extra premium defender or midfielder with the £2.5m difference.

These drafts give you excellent flexibility and provide you with a robust, long-term squad. You can easily hold the Wildcard until whenever it is required.

If you pick a team without Haaland, he’s much harder to bring in. For example, Watkins to Haaland would require an additional £6.0m while the upgrade from Son, Palmer or Saka is no more than £2.5m.

But perhaps FPL managers’ biggest reason for going with Haaland is FOMO – the fear of missing out.

Haaland plays Ipswich at home in Gameweek 2, when not having Haaland as captain may be too much for people – including myself – to bear.

He was close to 30% ownership when FPL launched but it has risen sharply since and only heading in one direction.

I don’t want to put myself through the experience of not owning him in Gameweek 2.

Now that I think of it, I would rather be spending Gameweek 2 in a forest with no internet at my disposal than having to put myself through the experience of watching him as a non-owner when City play Ipswich in Gameweek 2.

I also genuinely believe Saka is captainable in Gameweeks 1 and 3 and rotates really well with Haaland for captaincy for £2.5m cheaper than Salah.

Even during Salah’s easy fixture run, Haaland is the standout captaincy option in Gameweek 2 – and possibly Gameweek 4 – with Saka being the leading contender in Gameweek 3.

Fulham’s opening run of fixtures is one of the best in the league, so having an attacking asset is immediately appealing.

Smith Rowe has been operating very close to the striker in the friendlies, having already scored twice in two appearances.

At £5.5m, expectations should be realistic but the fixtures are so good that you’d expect Smith Rowe to return.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if Jota makes a strong start—he’s been sharp in pre-season, and with Darwin Nunez looking off the pace in the friendlies, Jota should be the first choice.

Given his outstanding minutes-per-goal ratio in the PL lately and the favorable opening fixtures, Jota could be a good short-term pick.

Saka v Palmer (Stats per 90 from last season)

Non pen xG: 0.33 v 0.38
Non pen xGi: 0.67 v 0.67

The underlying data suggests that there is nothing to separate them.

Think I prefer Saka as he is more of a captaincy pick in GW3.

Saka v Odegaard (Last season)

Stats per 90

Non pen xG: 0.33 v 0.17
Non pen xGi: 0.67 v 0.5

Odegaard is a solid pick for sure, but the fact that Saka is on penalties & could be captained in any of WOL/BHA/LEI in the opening six GWs probably justifies the £1.5m extra spent

Fernandes v Odegaard (Stats per 90 from last season)

Non pen xG: 0.18 v 0.17
Non pen xGi: 0.47 v 0.50

Both are £8.5m with virtually the same underlying data. Fernandes would be my pick for penalties though!

Is anyone actually considering going without BOTH Salah & Haaland?

It gives a stronger overall squad, but captaincy is way too important in the game & not having at least one reliable captain is a stretch too far for me.

Both over 30% ownership too so it's a high risk approach

CONTENT ON DEFENCE

Quansah has the potential to emerge as the standout defender in his price range.

Though Quansah might not be the safest choice, with Ibrahima Konate (£5.0m) reportedly out of favour, Quansah could offer great value considering the fixtures.

He has accumulated more than double the pre-season minutes of Konate, and it’s rumored that his ball-playing ability might earn him the starting position.

The opening fixture schedule is as good as it gets, so I think Quansah may well be worth the risk.

As much as I like the value being offered by some of the £4.5m defenders, the likes of Trent, Gabriel & Gvardiol are still likely to be worth the premium.

Far and above most of the defences in play at £4.5m.

Arsenal recorded the most clean sheets and were ranked first for the fewest expected goals conceded (xGC) last season so investing in their defence is likely to be a sensible choice.

With Jurriën Timber and Riccardo Calafiori barely featuring in pre-season, Gabriel should be safe to start the season.

Gabriel was top for xG among all defenders in the league last season and very recently scored in pre-season as well.

I prefer him to the higher owned Saliba as a result of his better attacking data – he registered more than double the xG, penalty area touches and shots in the box than the Frenchman last season.

I think Daniel Muñoz is being a bit overhyped in the FPL community.

In his 16 appearances since GW23, he was not even in the top 8 defenders for xG, shots in the box, big chances, key passes or xGi.

He's a solid pick, but he's not a player you can rely on for attacking returns in the tougher fixtures.

Matt Turner is currently the 2nd highest owned GK in FPL.

Both Sels & Miguel should be ahead of him in the pecking order so he's unlikely to start & could be one of the first GKs to drop in price due to his high ownership.

I'd suggest picking a lower owned £4m GK

CONTENT ON STRATEGY

Currently leaning towards selecting a low-risk Gameweek 1 team with considerable squad depth to save as many free transfers as possible.

I believe it’s wise to start the season without committing to a specific Wildcard week.

Although a Wildcard in Gameweek 6 might seem attractive, the optimal team remains similar over a 12 Gameweek period.

I therefore don’t need to commit to a Wildcard in Gameweek 6 when picking my initial team, as the differences between an early Wildcard team and a long-term team seem minor.

The main benefit of this strategy is that you’d be in a position to jump on any available Wildcard opportunity should it arise randomly, as a result of injuries or through the emergence of value enablers.

Construct a team that allows you to easily switch to different players if they perform exceptionally well.

Choosing players across a range of prices will provide the flexibility needed to address unforeseen events like injuries or transfers.

For instance, there are plenty of appealing £9.5m-10.5m midfielders in the game. The likes of Bukayo Saka, Son Heung-min, Phil Foden and Cole Palmer come to mind, so it is important to have someone from that price point within the squad.

This will give you the flexibility to swap back and forth depending on how the players are performing.

If you missed my previous pre-season thread, you can read it right here: 👇

https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1822666149160726663

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More to come from me in the coming days!instagram.com/bigmanbakar