Thread by @DougKlain

Scoop in @politico: @SenBlumenthal & @GrahamBlog told @ZelenskyyUa they'll push for another Ukraine supplemental this year, as well as to lift U.S. weapons restrictions on Ukrainian strikes into Russia.

Thoughts on why now is the right time and why a new supp is necessary🧵

First, the timing:

People forget what the purpose of the last supp was—the @WhiteHouse originally asked in August for an aid package that would last through 2023. After McCarthy's ouster, it then asked for a supp to last through 2024 to insulate Ukraine from the U.S. elections.

The military assistance in the April supplemental package is largely long-term contracts for production here in the U.S. It replenished the immediate military assistance pot (Presidential Drawdown Authority) by only $7.8 billion. This will last maybe to early 2025.

While European allies are codifying long-term military assistance to Ukraine, the U.S. is still only giving Ukraine enough to plan ahead by ~9 months at a time.

It's time to change that, and codifying the U.S.-Ukraine bilateral security agreement in Congress could fix that.

We saw how bleak things got when U.S. aid was blocked by Republicans afraid of losing their seats. Russia was in its best position since the start of the invasion.

Now, thanks to allied support, Ukraine is proving in Kursk that this war isn't a stalemate and wins are possible.

I'm optimistic a new supp won't face the same challenges as last time. Republicans saw they won't pay a real political price for supporting Ukraine. The "Putin caucus" is disempowered & nowadays @SpeakerJohnson sounds more like @LeaderMcConnell on Ukraine.

There's a key reason for this: as of a few weeks ago, every single Republican member of Congress who voted for Ukraine aid in April won their primary election. Phony arguments that they put "Ukraine first, America last" fell flat with voters.

A new supp can ensure Ukraine can plan for next year to capitalize on successes like the Kursk offensive. But Congress has to match our allies and pass meaningful long-term assistance.

We can't keep debating whether to help Ukraine every year. Let's decide to help Ukraine win.