Thread by @ByJoVer

Global vatniks are having a blast since @WSJ surfaced the true story behind the Nordstream explosion. But the story doesn’t float with me. It rattles like an old fashioned Russian Lada. Here’s why 1/23 🧵
archive.is/8LKeL#selectio…

The reasoning and evidence in the WSJ article is weak. I’ll get to that. The main question is: WHY is this article pushed NOW. WHO benefits from casting doubt on supporting Ukraine the very moment Ukraine starts whooping ass in #Kursk. Because this is OLD news 2/

This WSJ article dating back to NOVEMBER 2023 provides almost the exact same story. The boat, the suspects, the evidence. The article is a result of a co-investigation by the WSJ and the German Der Spiegel. In 2023 it passed without generating any fuzz 3/
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

The only NEW piece of evidence is the arrest warrant for one of the suspects, diving instructor Volodymyr Z – which was issued in JUNE. But the story just gets pushed NOW, AFTER the Kursk Situation began. 4/
sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artik…

But let’s look at the evidence presented. It’s highly circumstantial. The 2023 WSJ article identifies SBU Colonel Roman Chervinsky as the mastermind behind the #Nordstream sabotage mission. The recent WSJ article adds that he’s currently on trial 5/

According to the Kyiv Independent Chervinsky is on trial because of abuse of power and giving away the location of a UA airport while trying to lure in a Russian pilot in JULY 2022, about the same time as the #Nordstream sabotage originally was planned. 6/
kyivindependent.com/ex-intelligenc…

According to the WSJ, Dutch MIVD warned the CIA in JUNE 2022 about a possible act of sabotage. Which then seemed to be postponed to SEPTEMBER 2022. It is unlikely Chervinsky was involved in planning BOTH high profile missions at the same time. 7/

Moreover, as Chervinsky apparently screwed the JULY mission, it is also unlikely he would still be in charge of the BIGGEST act of sabotage in the EU history in SEPTEMBER 2022. Onto the next piece of evidence. 8/

Another suspect was a Ukrainian woman who was supposedly rented the Andromeda The first 10 minutes of the investigative documentary by ZDF / Der Spiegel explains how the sabotage COULD be done from a yacht…but 9/
zdf.de/politik/fronta…

After that they say the “Ukrainian woman” left for Russia. Weird huh? It turns out, she’s still is in Russia and never had the Ukranian nationality. In fact she’s from Uzbekistan 10/

https://x.com/peteralthaus/status/1678690757408874498

On to the feat itself. According to Norwegian Seismologist Bjorn Lund, the explosions were so forceful that it would equal several 100s kilograms of dynamite. That would fit on the boat, along with a six men crew 11/ tu.no/artikler/havet…

Both #Nordstream pipelines were at a depth of 75 meters. This depth would make it theoretically possible for experienced divers to do this without a diving chamber (which would not fit on the boat). 12/

The depth of 75 meters would require an anchor line of 3*75 meters (=225 meters, =15 times the Andromeda boat length). It would pretty much fill up the entire fore cabin with anchorline 13/

Experienced divers would at least need diving cylinders of 12 liters at 300 bar filled with trimix in which nitrogen is replaced by helium. It would take 2 divers to bring down an explosive. 4 explosions is 4 dives, is 16 heavy cylinders on board 14/

They would need to bring 16 big cylinders, because they couldn’t refill the cylinders on board. That would require an aggregate that would not fit on the small Andromeda. 15/

According to the WSJ a Ukrainian flag was found on the Andromeda. As well as fake passports, traces of HMX explosives, fingerprints and DNA. That does not sound like the work of a professional crew. It smells of classic Russian fake evidence 16/

The WSJ also mentions combat dolphins and a marine diving school in Ukraine to give any credibility to alleged advanced Ukrainian diving capabilities. But there is not a single strand of evidence that supports this connection 17/

Early in the investigation, all evidence pointed towards Russia. The WSJ investigation totally ignores other more compelling evidence.18/ t-online.de/nachrichten/de…

Such as the evidence of a large Russian vessel ss-750 near the location of the detonation, just a few days prior to the explosion. 19/ information.dk/indland/2023/0…

Now, Danish and Norwegian authorities stopped their investigation. Only the Germans continued. The latter are considered to be less capable, and have a history of Russian infiltration. 20/

For obvious reasons, the German and Dutch intelligence agencies will neither confirm nor deny the statements made by the WSJ. However, it is remarkable only the WSJ keeps pushing this narrative 21/

I do not have final answers. I have questions. Most likely scenario still is that Russia is behind the #Nordstream sabotage. It has precedents. But attribution would be dangerous and tricky. 22/

https://x.com/ByJoVer/status/1824177070462865421

Going silent, like the Norwegians and Danish agencies, or spinning a frame would both work to avoid escalation. Funny thing is, the Russians don’t buy the WSJ story either. 23/end

https://x.com/Isa_Yusibov/status/1824196311983284663

Thanks to @Herman_Caron @SanderRegter and @robinosinga for providing input for this thread