Inquisitive Bird Profile picture
Aug 16, 2024 2 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Do teachers exhibit gender bias in grading?

It's well known that girls get better grades than boys on average. But the fact that boys and girls get different average grades is obviously not compelling evidence of bias.

One attempt at quantifying bias has been to compare results from blind (anonymous) and non-blind tests. Using this approach on French data, Breda & Ly (2015) find that: “evaluation is biased in favor of females in more male-dominated subjects (e.g. math, philosophy) and in favor of males in more female-dominated subjects (e.g. literature, biology)”.

Breda & Hillion (2016) confirmed this finding with more data. Female students got a substantial boost in the most male-typical domains.

Terrier (2020) found similar results, and concludes that this impacts schooling trajectories: “Without teachers’ bias in favor of girls, the gender gap in choosing a science track would be 12.5% larger in favor of boys.”

One potential issue, however, is that the blind and non-blind tests aren't identical in content. It is therefore possible that these studies aren't simply capturing bias.

Using Greek data, Lavy & Megalokonomou (2019) explored this issue more carefully. They found, among other things, that teachers' estimated biases were persistent between classrooms. This gives us greater confidence that the bias estimator isn't just picking up various unobserved classroom and/or student characteristics. It seems like it really is related to teacher behavior.

In Lavy & Megalokonomou's study they found a mix of pro-male and pro-female teachers, but, on average, teachers were biased in favor of girls.

In summary, while grade disparities shouldn't be interpreted simply as a manifestation of bias, a net pro-female grading bias probably does contribute, at least in these countries.Image

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More from @Scientific_Bird

Oct 31, 2025
No, India did NOT invent calculus

In a new post, I refute the idea that calculus was invented in India and/or that European calculus was built upon ideas of calculus transmitted from India to Europe.

I then provide the true account of how the development of calculus began. Image
The claim that India (or anywhere else before the 17th century) had invented calculus is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of what "calculus" is.

Calculus is a systematic theory of integration and differentiation, one that didn't exist before the 17th century. Image
A second claim often forwarded is that European calculus was inspired by infinitesimal ideas developed in India, which were supposedly transmitted by Jesuit missionaries.

There is no historical evidence for this whatsoever, and I refute many of the common arguments. Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 5, 2025
In a new post, I contest the common claim that precolonial India was a rich society.

With qualitative and quantitative evidence, we see that the living standards of Indian commoners were poor. I also trace the origins of the divergence between the West and India. Image
The typical claim is that India once accounted for 25% of the global GDP, which reduced to just 4% after colonialism.

But this tells us nothing about their living conditions before we have accounted for the respective population counts. (These old estimates are also dubious) Image
Many European traveler accounts give us a picture of precolonial Indian living conditions.

The Dutch merchant Francisco Pelsaert, for instance, writes about the “miserable poverty” experienced by Indian common people. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 7, 2025
African homicide rates are completely dubious

That's what I argue in a recent piece. Consider, for example, Nigeria's homicide rate.

An organization that monitors homicides from news reports find >3x homicides than official counts, and household surveys suggest >10x. Image
There are two major sources that compile national homicide rates across the world, including African countries: WHO and UNODC.

WHO, recognizing the unreliability of African homicide statistics, do not even use the official homicide counts and try to estimate it by other means. Image
How do they estimate it? They use a socio-demographic regression model. They basically say “the country is this poor, this unequal, has this many young males, etc, therefore the homicide is probably about such-and-such.”

But we have no idea how accurate such predictions are. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jun 22, 2025
Africa's Poor Numbers – new long post published!

In this piece, I critically examine the quality and availability of data in Africa. I argue that much African data is highly unreliable.

In particular, I look at economic data, criminal justice data, and population data. Image
I'm by no means the first to sound alarm about African data quality. It has previously been called "Africa's statistical tragedy". Similarly, a well-known book "Poor Numbers" critically examines Africa's developmental statistics.
There's a lack of proper birth registration, death registration, lack of recent censuses, and much more.

This chart illustrates a composite measure of statistical capacity across the world. As is evident, Africa is the region with the lowest average score. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2, 2025
It is not unusual to see claims that intelligent or otherwise able people have fewer children. But is this universal? In the Nordic countries, the opposite seems to the case.

Consider first this data of IQ-fertility for Swedish men born between 1951–1967. Image
The data clearly shows that there is a positive relationship between IQ and fertility. To be fair, this is mostly explained by reduced fertility below average IQ. (Note also that "not tested" have very low fertility, but people who weren't tested tend to have very low IQ).
Basically the same is shown for Norway here (Stanine score is just the IQ scores being distributed into bins). Image
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May 13, 2025
In my most recent piece, I evaluate whether immigrants tend to assimilate with respect to various social outcomes.

One important outcome is crime. Consider for example the following chart. In Denmark, second-generation immigrants are no less criminal than first-generation. Image
I then went one step further and considered whether differences between different immigrant groups converge. Again, Denmark offers excellent data by nation-of-origin.

There is a remarkable persistence in crime rates between first- and second generation (correlation = 0.9). Image
It's not just in Denmark. Though Sweden does not report them at the national level, we see the same strong persistence for region-of-origin. Image
Read 6 tweets

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