Meanwhile a Russian Air Force insider channel says the only reason they can save their airframes from Ukrainian UAV attacks is because the drones fly so slow that they have time to disperse the jets, but as soon as Western missile strikes are allowed... t.me/fighter_bomber…
[rough translation] "I just hope the command has a plan B" for when the Ukrainians start lobbing missiles at airfields without enough warning time to move the glide bomb carriers away
Oh and per the same guy's assessment, Russia produces no more than 2-4 Su-34s (which are the main glide bomb carriers) in half a year
For comparison, there were 15 Su-34s at Marinovka airfield that was hit today (they dispersed) t.me/fighter_bomber…
So just one strike would have a potential to destroy roughly 2 years worth of production of Su-34s.
This would be unsustainable for Russia.
The Pentagon should stop pretending they have reasons other than eScAlAtiOn mAnAgEmEnT.
Concerning escalation management per se, I believe it is a pointless exercise because Putin has laid his cards open by saying that Russia's strategic defeat would be reason enough for going nuclear kyivindependent.com/battlefield-de…
If Ukraine's Western partners are true to their stated goal of peace on Ukrainian terms, which, by definition, implies Russia's strategic defeat, they should start calling Putin's bluff.
Declaring open season on those airfields would be a good start.
/🧵
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That includes hundreds of thousands of people and the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk
This _on top_ of "demilitarization", "denazification" and cessation of Western aid
Those who call for "peace" at current lines should realize Russia doesn't want it
Russia's current idea of peace is getting most of their goals on a plate and breathing room to prepare the next attack.
They will keep killing Ukrainians until they achieve all of the above militarily or diplomatically — or until they change positions due to being defeated.
У РФ формально есть аналогичные машины, подвижный разведывательный пункт ПРП, но их очень мало (что-то типа по одной на артполк)
У американцев в боевых условиях придается по одной M7 на механизированную роту, чтобы оказывать распределенную огневую поддержку
Не знаю, сколько рот будет в украинском механизированном батальоне на Брэдли, но если предположить, что 4 (машин всего 50), то по одной M7 на каждую выглядит логично
Конечно концепция с распространением дронов выглядит несколько устаревшей, но кмк они должны друг друга дополнять
Ну то есть когда пришёл Гитлер, ему было 8 лет, буквально вырос при нацистах, после чего его запихнули в танк с парой десятков часов за рычагами в лучшем случае (1944) и отправили под американские бомбы
В лучшем случае он сейчас думает "все политики врут, война это плохо"
Я бы ещё наверное на его месте глубоко симпатизировал российским мобикам, на которых эти леопарды поедут, та же история ведь буквально
Alternative explanation is that jets are a great supplement to ground-based firepower which suffers from insufficient ammo production capacity as well as to ground-based air defenses which can't be supplied in the required quantity in the required time
Also it would be wrong to dismiss the air war component, primarily Russia's terror bombing offensive, of which only later we will know how close it came to destroying Ukraine's power grid
Ukrainian jets have shot down missiles and drones, and Western jets could do it better
But Ukraine's offensives to liberate its territory would also benefit from on-call high-precision close air support and more capabilities to strike Russia's operational rear to destroy logistics hubs and command posts, and jets are as important as ground-based long-range missiles