Kamil Galeev Profile picture
Aug 24 20 tweets 8 min read Read on X
We are releasing our investigation on Roscosmos, covering a nearly exhaustive sample of Russian ICBM producing plants. We have investigated both primary ICBM/SLBM producers in Russia, a major producer of launchers, manufacturers of parts and components.

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We have five OSINT materials, one per each plant. To access our materials, you can either:

a) Click on a respective plant in the diagram
b) Choose it from the list below it

Follow the link: rhodus.com/roscosmos
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Each material includes an eclectic collection of sources, ranging from the TV propaganda to public tenders, and from the HR listings to academic dissertations. Combined altogether, they provide a holistic picture of Russian ICBM production base that no single type of source can. Image
If traditional intelligence worked with the deficit of information, modern one must work with its hyper abundance. Our collection aims to introduce the media, academia and strategic community into the hyper abundance, depth and variety of sources on the seemingly impenetrable. Image
It is two companies within Roscosmos that are primarily responsible for the missile production. The Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT) makes solid-propellant missiles, Makeyev Design Bureau – liquid propellant ones.

Of these two, the MITT is a far richer company. Image
We investigated five Roscosmos plants:

1. Votkinsk Plant is one of two key intercontinental ballistic missiles producers in Russia. It is the sole manufacturer of solid-propellant missiles, such as ICBMs Topol-M and Yars, SLBM Bulava as well as missiles for the SRBM Iskander.Image
Votkinsk has automated an unusually wide variety of its production processes, implementing the fully integrated turnkey solutions in forging (Danieli Breda 🇮🇹) and in precision casting (Shell-o-Matic 🇨🇦). In terms of machining, however, it tends to be relatively frugal.
The Votkinsk Plant machining park consists of a mix of:

a) Modern Western equipment
b) Soviet machines upgraded with modern CNC controllers & servo drives (= "modernization" in the Russian manufacturing terminology) Image
2. Titan-Barriady is a major producer of launchers, control equipment and electronics for the SRBM “Iskander”, ICBMs “Topol”, “Yars”, and SLBM “Bulava”. Like the Votkinsk Plant, it is also a part of the much richer MITT holding (= solid-propellant missiles).Image
Titan-Barrikady is a heavily-lopsided enterprise that heavily prioritizes CNC machining. It has more of the modern, sophisticated CNC machinery by the leading Western European and American producers compared to any other plant in this sample.

It's a machining-oriented plant. Image
As we finished with the MITT (solid propellant), we now go to the Makeyev (liquid propellant). It is much poorer, with more archaic & often physically worn out machinery. Its actually missile production is largely concentrated within the single plant - Krasnoyarsk Plant.
3. Krasnoyarsk Plant is one of two principal ICBM producers in Russia. It is the leading manufacturer of liquid-propellant missiles such as the ICBM Sarmat and SLBM Sineva. It is the most important and best funded enterprise of the (relatively poor) Makeyev company.Image
It operates with a mix of Soviet stock, mid-tier modern imports (🇨🇿 Czech, mostly), and a few ad hoc machines assembled from the Western European parts. Overall, its park tends to be of lower tier compared with the MITT plants, yet by far the best within the Makeyev structure. Image
4. Zlatoust Plant is a relatively neglected facility making parts and components for the liquid propellant ballistic missiles (Sineva, Sarmat). It is an example of what a competent management can do with a chronically underfunded military plant.Image
It will largely switch to the production of civilian goods, household appliances and, most importantly, aluminium extrusion. The competent industrial management kept this plant alive, even when totally neglected by state.
5. Miass Plant is a liquid propellant SLBM producer of secondary importance. A lower priority enterprise of the poorer Makeyev hollding, Miass has faced severe financial constraints. Like Zlatmash, it tried selling to the civilian market, but with considerably less success.Image
Miass business model included selling the oil storage equipment, brewery machinery, LED lamps and the electricity from its power plant. Overall, it is a military purpose plant which struggled with adapting to the post-Soviet market realities and has very much degraded. Image
Some takeaways:

a) The Russian ICBM production base is a mix of modern Western equipment & remnants of Soviet machinery
b) There is almost nothing "Russian" out there
c) And, more interestingly, almost nothing Chinese

This suggests the policy of Chinese exclusion, pre-2022Image
Our work depends upon your financial contributions. To contribute, you can:

a) Card Payment ()
b) PayPal donations@rhodus.com
c) BTC: bc1qssdxjeazytnqds0s92lsh2nm4t7zq6594q3eyz
d) ETH: 0xA9FA4454cC3EC0Ff521926BB5F8D4389bA0e665a rhodus.com/donations
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This collection of sources serves as a technical appendix to our report How Does Russia Make Missiles? On our research methodology see pp. 33-44, on our conclusions pp. 45-46 of the cited report.

cdn.prod.website-files.com/65ca3387040186…

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More from @kamilkazani

Nov 16
Why the USSR failed?

There are two ways for a poor, underdeveloped country to industrialise: Soviet vs Chinese way. Soviet way is to build the edifice of industrial economy from the foundations. Chinese way is to build it from the roof.

1st way sounds good, 2nd actually works. Image
To proceed further, I need to introduce a new concept. Let's divide the manufacturing industry into two unequal sectors, Front End vs Back End:

Front End - they make whatever you see on the supermarket shelf

Back End - they make whatever that stands behind, that you don’t see
Front End industries are making consumer goods. That is, whatever you buy, as an individual. Toys, clothes, furniture, appliances all falls under this category. The list of top selling amazon products gives a not bad idea what the front end sector is, and how it looks like. Image
Read 18 tweets
Nov 13
Nation state is not some basic property of reality (as many falsely presume). They do not just organically grow out of the “ethnically drawn borders”. That is not how it works. They usually grow out of the *administratively* drawn borders, on whichever continent.
First they draw administrative borders based on whatever rationales and considerations. Then, these arbitrarily drawn administrative borders turn out to be surprisingly stable, more stable than anyone could ever expect. Eventually they become borders of the nation states.
States do not grow out of ethnicities. States grow out of the administrative zones, fiscal zones, customs zones et cetera. Basically, a Big Guy got a right to collect taxes and rents over these territories, but not those territories. Then the border between what he can milk…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
Why have elections?

Every election in the US attracts huge global attention. People in Pakistan, people in Paraguay, people in Poland, people in Papua New Guinea are monitoring the course of elections and tend to hold strong opinions regarding whom they would prefer to win Image
Why would that be the case? Well, one obvious reason would be that the US elections are, in fact, seen as the world elections. People in Paraguay do not vote in the US and yet, the US elections have a very strong impact on the fortunes of Paraguay.

Or Russia, in this case: Image
And I am not discussing the economic fortunes only. In terms of politics, in terms of culture, in terms of discourse, American relations with the rest of the world tend to be strikingly one-directional. Much or most of the global discourse comes downstream from the Unites States Image
Read 14 tweets
Oct 26
There is hardly any other genre of literature more factual, and more realistic than the sci-fi. It is exactly its non-serious, seemingly abstract character that allows it to escape censorship and ostracism to a far greater degree than it is normally possible for a work of art. Image
Sci-fi allows you to to present the most painful, insulting, insufferable, obnoxious, criminal and traitorous arguments in a non-serious way, as a fun, as a joke. In this regard, it is far superior to any other genre. Compare three ways to sell a heresy: Image
By its very nature, sci-fi is inseparable from the social commentary. For this reason, quality sci-fi should be always read as a self-reflection and self-criticism of the society it is written in.

If the "Gulliver’s Travels" is a reflection on Britain… Image
Read 7 tweets
Oct 25
What you should know about Tatarstan?

Tatarstan is a large and wealthy ethnic republic located, in the very middle of Russia. While being culturally and institutionally distinctive, it is not really peripheral. It sits in a few kilometres from the population centre of Russia🧵 Image
While Tatarstan does not sit in the centre of Russia geography-wise, it does so demography-wise. The Russian centre of population (red star), located somewhere in southwest Udmurtia, is literally in a walking distance from the Tatarstani border.

It is the very middle of Russia. Image
If you look at the Russian administrative map, you will see that most ethnic republics (colored) occupy a peripheral position. The main exception are republics of the Volga-Ural region (green), located in the middle of Russia & surrounded by the Slavic sea.

How did that happen? Image
Read 33 tweets
Sep 17
Wagner march was incredible, unprecedented to the extent most foreigners simply do not understand. Like, yes, Russia had its military coups in the 18th c. But those were the palace coups, all done by the Guards. Purely praetorian business with zero participation of the army.
Yes, there was a Kornilov affair in 1917, but that happened after the coup in capital. In March they overthrew the Tsar, then there was infighting in the capital, including a Bolshevik revolt in July, and only in September part of the army marches to St Petersburg.

Half a year after the coup. Not the same thing
I think the last time anything like that happened was in 1698, when the Musketeers marched on Moscow from the Western border. And then, next time, only in 2023.

(Army leaves the border/battlefield and marches on the capital without a previous praetorian coup in the capital)
Read 17 tweets

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