Arnaud Bertrand Profile picture
Aug 24 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Quite an incredible move in French politics today that might reveal that we're in fact witnessing nothing less than a coup by Macron.

Let me explain 🧵
You'll remember that on the 7th of July France held elections that Macron lost badly, and which the left's "New Popular Front" won. Image
We're now 48 days afterwards and Macron and his government are still running the country, they've basically ignored the election results which is unprecedented in the history of the French 5th republic. Image
Normally, as is the rule set by precedents, Macron should have nominated a Prime Minister from the New Popular Front, the winners of the elections 🤷‍♂️
At first Macron argued that it wasn't convenient to change government right before the Olympics games and argued for an "Olympics truce".

Which is a bit bizarre because he's the one who decided to hold the elections right before the Olympics 🤦‍♂️
Anyhow we're now almost 2 weeks after the end of the Olympics and the situation is still the same so everyone is started to ask "wtf?"
Especially given that the New Popular Front has a Prime Minister ready: Lucie Castets, a senior public servant. Image
Now the excuse by Macron's camp is that they refuse a government with anyone from LFI ("France's unbowed", Mélenchon's party), the main party on the left and therefore the main party in the New Popular Front coalition (Lucie Castets is not from LFI but some ministers could be). Image
Macron has been demonizing LFI in a very similar fashion to the way Jeremy Corbyn was demonized in the UK, with accusations of antisemitism for their support of Gaza.

Except that unlike Corbyn, LFI doesn't bow - they're "France unbowed" after all - and fight back the accusations
Which brings me to what happened this morning, an incredible gamble by Mélenchon who asked an open question to Macron: "Say we committed to no LFI members in the government, would you nominate Lucie Castets Prime Minister?" Image
This forces Macron's hand: if he says "no", as Mélenchon himself wrote, it'd show that Macron's refusal to have LFI in the government is "just a pretext to deny the election results".

In effect if he says no, he openly admits that he just doesn't accept the election results.
Olivier Faure, who leads the Socialist party (the other big political force in the New Popular Front) backs up Mélenchon and says the "pretext of the presence of LFI ministers" isn't valid anymore. Image
In a way a New Popular Front government without LFI would in itself a denial of democracy because most voters voted for them *because* LFI was part of the coalition.

But this is also an act of political courage by Mélenchon and a way to put Macron in front of his contradictions.
We've already had some of Macron's lieutenants reply such as Benjamin Haddad (former spokesperson for Macron's party in the French parliament) who literally says that a New Popular Front gvt is unacceptable either way because it'd be bad for France.

They get to decide this? 🤔 Image
Let's see what Macron ultimately does but we're truly witnessing something extraordinary that demonstrates how undemocratic France has become: the people voted and the result of their vote is so far simply rejected because those holding power don't like it...
I got this community note 👇 in the thread, which is NOT true. In the elections of 2022 - the prior ones - Macron's party arrived first without winning a majority yet Macron didn't hesitate to nominate a Prime Minister from his own party 🤷‍♂️
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Another extraordinary comment on this matter by François Bayrou, a former Macron minister and a famous centrist politician in France:

He literally says that the answer to Mélenchon's question is "of course no" (i.e. a New Popular Front government won't be accepted no matter what) because the program of the NFP is "very dangerous" for France.

There you have it, he said the quiet part out loud: folks who lost the elections refuse to leave power in favor of those who won it because they disagree with the policies the winners would enact, and they believe they're the ultimate judge for how the country should be governed.

Absolutely unreal.

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More from @RnaudBertrand

Dec 3
This is crazy... So let me get this right:
- Yoon lost recent parliamentary elections
- He's invoking national security to justify emergency powers
- He's labeling the opposition as North Korean sympathizers
- He is strongly aligned with US policy (even strengthening ties with Japan, which is deeply unpopular with the population)

This sounds like a bad remake of the classic transitions to right-wing military dictatorship we saw in so many US vassals during the cold war.

Hopefully South Korea will be strong enough to prevent history from repeating itself...
Couldn't be more appallingly undemocratic: martial law can be lifted by a vote in parliament but he's blocking access to it 👇
Yoon's martial law declaration. Really reads like the ravings of the very worst military dictators, truly crazy stuff!
Image
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29
Goodbye Uniqlo China business (22% of their revenue!) 👋

It's a virtual certainty that Chinese consumers will stop shopping at Uniqlo after this. A *Japanese* company that publicly chooses to align with the West's Uyghur narrative against China (which not a single Chinese believes in, even those most critical of the government): it's the closest you can get to corporate suicide in China.

Puzzling why they'd do that.
The last company that said it'd stop using Xinjiang cotton was H&M. Their sales in China immediately decreased by 41% ()bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To be clear the choice made by Uniqlo is not about whether to use Xinjiang cotton or not: it's about communicating about it. x.com/GearoidReidy/s…

Maybe they never even used Xinjiang cotton and that's their choice. But given how sensitive an issue this is in China, they'd also chosen for years to not communicate on this issue because it was obvious that if they did it'd instrumentalized by Western media in headlines just like the BBC article...

I don't why they suddenly decided to change position and and start communicating on this, but they did and it did generate headlines. That's the issue...
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15
Absolutely perfect illustration of what we enable with the way the media and the Western political class framed what happened in Amsterdam.

There was a football match between Israel and France yesterday and this 👇 happened at the beginning of the match: a horde of Israeli supporters openly lynched some French supporters in the stands.

Macron himself was in attendance at the match to show his commitment to "fighting antisemitism" after Amsterdam... He made no public comment that I know of on these French supporters getting lynched in front of his eyes. And the police made no reported arrests.

Had the reverse been the case, had this been some Israeli supporters getting lynched by a horde of French supporters, you can absolutely bet 100% that he (and all the French media) would have made a huge deal out of it.

You cannot overstate the absurdism of it: because we've so gaslighted ourselves around "antisemitism" and so distorted the meaning of it, Western countries would literally rather let our their own citizens get lynched on their own soil - in front of the president's eyes (!) - than face accusations being "antisemitic" in their own definition of the term.
French TV interviewed after the match an Israel supporter (wearing an IDF t-shirt) who participated in the lynching, who commented that "the security [in the stadium] was magnificent. I'll even say even too much... We had a small problem in the block K, directly it was settled, the police came and directly they solved the problem".

No comment...
Another video where French fans explain to the police, with video for proof, that the Israel supporters started the fight and that they arrested the French victims.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 9
This is hugely important and no-one is paying attention.

Philippines President Marcos Jr. just signed 2 new bills (the "Maritime Zones Act" and the "Philippine Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act"), backed by the U.S. State Department (via a press release by the infamous Matthew Miller: state.gov/on-the-philipp…), that claim to implement "international law" but actually are a direct violation of international law in that they attempt to legitimize expansionist claims at the expense of virtually all its neighbors.

Let me explain 🧵Image
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First, some context.

The Philippines exist as an independent country since 1946 when they gained their independence from the United States. They had never existed as a country before.

The establishment of the Philippines was officialized by the Treaty of Manilla.
Crucially, the Treaty of Manilla also defined Filipino territory as based on the earlier Treaty of Paris, when Spain ceded the Philippines to the US at the end of the Spanish-American War of 1898.

You can see these boundaries as defined in the treaty of Paris illustrated here 👇 Image
Read 30 tweets
Nov 8
This is crazy: Israeli police arrests 2 French military personnel ("gendarmes") with diplomatic status in a Christian church (the Eleona Church) that has officially belonged to France for 160 years and is protected by diplomatic immunity: x.com/sambklf/status…

To make things worse the church is located in occupied East Jerusalem - theoretically Palestinian territory - and the arrests occured as the French foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot was due to visit it. He cancelled his visit due to the presence of Israeli police on site and the breach of diplomatic immunity.

Yet another unarguable proof that Israel respects absolutely zero rule.
Live reaction by France's foreign minister, who looks very shaken: "I will not enter the Eleona domain today because Israeli security forces entered it armed without first obtaining authorization from France and without agreeing to leave today."
x.com/sambklf/status…

In normal language, given this is officially French territory, it's called an armed invasion of sovereign territory...
In this other video you can see the French side asking the Israeli police: "Are you sure you want to arrest French military personnel, in France, on French territory?"

Their reply: "Yes".
Read 6 tweets
Nov 4
As our 2-week road-trip in China's Sichuan came to an end, time to do a small retrospective to summarize what we've done in case anyone wants to do a similar trip one day, or just needs inspiration for when they travel to China.

A small 🧵 of what we did and saw, day by day. Image
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But before I start, a few practical observations.

I did this trip visa-free, as French nationals don't need visas anymore for stays in China of less than 15 days. Check for yourself if you need a visa.

Anyone can do this trip, we did it ourselves with 2 young kids, but I'll admit we're definitely not the relaxed type of travelers who like to tan on a beach somewhere. We like to actually visit stuff 😊

You do need a Chinese driving license to drive in China (I have one). It's really easy to procure one nowadays, in some places like Beijing you can even convert your foreign driving license into a Chinese one upon landing at the airport. Otherwise you have myriads of other ways to get around in China.

Yes, it immensely help to speak Chinese or travel with someone who does to get around in China, very few people speak English. Although I can imagine you can manage to get around with instant translation apps (never tried it myself). Most people are typically very friendly and helpful to foreign tourists.

For the most popular attractions in China make sure to think about booking tickets in advance (or ask a travel agency to do it for you) as places are limited. Typically attractions release tickets a week ahead of time, although it depends.

Lastly, if you travel to China for the first time (not at all my case, I've been coming to China for 16 years and lived during 8 years in the country) you need to be prepared to a dramatically different tech and payment ecosystems from the rest of the world. At the very least set-up WeChat before you depart on your journey and connect your debit/credit card to it, as WeChat is the ubiquitous payment method in China. Also be sure to download a VPN that works in China, or alternatively roam on your foreign sim card so the great firewall won't apply to you, and so you'll keep being able to use all your usual apps.

With that out of the way, here's what we did 👇
DAY 1 (21st of Oct)

We started our trip with 4 days in Chongqing.

What we did that day
1) Our very first visit in Chongqing was a place called "French Charity Hall" (Ren Ai Tang) because it seemed fitting as a French citizen but also because it's a great introduction to Chongqing, on top of a hill with views over the city and with charming small streets full of F&B options.
2) We then headed to a really cool Chongqing shopping district called Shibati (literally "18 stairs"), that mixes traditional architecture with modern shops and restaurants.
3) For our first dinner in Chongqing, we obviously had to try world-famous Chongqing hotpot, and not just any Chongqing hotpot, we went to a Chongqing institution called 周师兄 (zhou shi xiong), which is famous for having one of the best hotpots in the city.

My posts of the day
- On Ren Ai Tang: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…
- On Shibati: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…
- On our dinner: x.com/RnaudBertrand/…Image
Read 17 tweets

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