A brief 🧵 about Brexit denialism currently suffocating the country.
1/19 As a psychologist, I am all too aware that, when faced with emotionally challenging issues and threats, facing them can be very scary and the temptation is to avoid. Can entire nations act similarly? Yes.
2/19 In the clinic, for example when dealing with people with addictions, obesity, or chronic personality disorders, we see people progress through stages of change.
3/19 Where is Britain in the stages of change in relation to Brexit? I'd say hovering somewhere in the precontemplation zone. Almost everyone in their heart knows Brexit is a problem, and it would be better if it had never happened, but many people don't want to think about it.
4/19 Why are people frightened to think about it?
Well, for leave voters this is not just any old mistake - it has been a massive error with numerous adverse consequences. Who wants to think that they deliberately chose that?
5/19 For many others, the problem is a lack of self-efficacy (perception that it's possible to change things). Repairing Brexit just seems too difficult, and the challenges too daunting. Easier just not to think about it.
6/19 And if you voted for it, then thinking about how hard is to reverse is really depressing.
7/19 And then there are cowardly politicians. Brexit has pretty much destroyed the Tory Party, because they bet the farm on it, and it was also a gateway for the party's takeover by liars and incompetents. My bet is that many former Tory voters hate Brexit.......
8/19.... but the liars and incompetents think that their survival depends on maintaining the Brexit mythology of benefits that nobody can name and greater control over our borders which we obviously don't have.
9/19 The Labour leadership is obviously stuck in the 'this is all too difficult' zone, so have trapped themselves in the lunacy of pretending they can undo bits of Brexit while at the same time that none of Brexit will be undone and "we must make it work" (good luck with that).
10/19 And then, to top it all, everyone seems to frightened of this cunt, the self-serving narcissist who did more to create this mess than anyone else. Even banks seem to be frightened of him.
11/19 And yet, underneath this, polling says that a clear majority wants to rejoin the EU, especially the young (who had no responsibility for causing it), and my guess is that even many of those who say no to rejoin would make a sigh of relief if we did.
12/19 So what are we to do?
We need to move from the pre-contemplation stage to the contemplation stage. WE DON'T NEED TO WORRY ABOUT HOW TO REJOIN, WHAT THE CONDITIONS WOULD BE, OR HOW THE EU WOULD RESPOND - at this stage, these are just forms of avoidance.
13/19 We just need to acknowledge and state loudly and without shame that BRITAIN WOULD BE A BETTER, HAPPIER, MORE SOCIALLY COHESIVE and MORE PROSPEROUS COUNTRY WITHOUT BREXIT.
14/19 Remember, at this stage WE DON'T NEED SOLUTIONS ( we'll figure them out in the contemplation, preparation and action stages). We just have to admit to ourselves that it was a really TERRIBLE MISTAKE.
Which almost everyone in the country in their hearts knows to be true.
15/19 So what practical steps can we do right now?
First, we just need to TALK about, and keep on talking about, how much Brexit is a disaster. Stop being embarrassed about it. Just keep stating this obvious truth as often and openly as we can.
16/19 Second, we need to STOP BEING FRIGHTENED OF THE CHIEF CUNT AND HIS GRIFTER MATES. In the USA we are seeing that it's possible to stand up to cunts. He is an imaginary monster with no actual power over us. Mock him and above all tell him.....
17/19 Third, those of us within the Labour Party need to use whatever influence we can bring to bear to get the leadership to grow some balls. Let's be honest with ourselves - by far the majority of Labour members including MPs want to rejoin.
18/19 Overarching this is the need to be proud of our Europeaness. Shout it from the rooftops; wear it as badge of pride.
19/END I have long been predicting that we will rejoin in the early 2030s; that seems to be our trajectory. I am totally convinced that it will happen, and that we have the capability to hasten the process.
The only way to slow it is by telling ourselves that its too difficult.
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We need to have some clarity about the causes of the rioting over the past few days.
A 🧵about the rioters, the instigators (two fairly distinct groups of people), and the processes leading to the current unrest. 1/21
First, although this was triggered by the tragic deaths of three children in Southport, it is NOT a reaction to violent crime. Violent crime is at a historic low, as are child homicides, and neither correlates with immigration. 2/
So, if the rioters believe that our children are not safe, or that our streets and cities (and even Waitrose) are unsafe, it's not because it's true. It's because somebody told them it is so. 3/
1/14 I'm a bit surprised by how much traction my single-tweet rant at Oslo airport has got (22k likes so far), but less surprised by the volume of invective from leave accounts. It got me wondering why pictures of airport queues always wind up Brexiters so much. A 🧵
2/14 If some of you reading this are leave voters, you may have pointed out that this is a trivial problem so I’d like to start by pointing out that I AGREE WITH YOU – in the scheme of things, this is much more trivial than many other harms caused by Brexit.
3/14 Although, because I travel quite a lot for work and pleasure, it has happened to me quite a lot,
Growth is much misunderstood, especially by Brexiters. Buckle up for a short 🧵
1/23 Growth is annual change in GDP expressed as a %. So if GDP in year 1 = £2 trillion (approx UK GDP in 2016) and in year 2 = £2.02 trillion, growth is 1%.
2/ To calculate GDP, the ONS uses all sorts of measurements which are subject to uncertainty, so the numbers are often revised. Recently, they changed the method of calculation, causing previous estimates to be revised up. ons.gov.uk/economy/grossd…
3/ BUT because growth is expressed as a %, the same level of growth in a rich economy (eg US, Europe) equals a much greater increase in wealth than for a poor economy (1% of £2 trillion = £20 billion; 1% of £2 billion = £20 million).
A strange thing just happened when I responded to the IEA's @cjsnowdon's claim that the NHS was awash with money. His wiki bio says that he did an undergrad degree in Lancs so I asked him to justify his claim to be an economist.
Then he blocked me.
2/4 Which got me thinking about the qualifications of other so-called economists associated with the IEA, such as @CeeMacBee.
3/4 And the ever-on-our screens @KateAndrs, formerly of the IEA, now the Spectator economic editor (here quoted in the Express in 2017), whose only economics qualification seems to be a masters in philosophy and international relations at St Andrews.
1/17 It's time to join some dots and talk about one of the very worst effects of Brexit.
I am not talking about the economy. I am talking about its impact on honesty in public life and the integrity of our institutions. A 🧵
2/ So far, the national conversation has been about effects on trade, growth, etc. There's no doubt about a negative impact. Brexiters who once boasted of unicorns, now perform cognitive acrobatics to argue things aren't quite as shit as remainers say.
3/ While all this has been going on, the disintegration of our standards in public life has been plain for all to see. Some of this is being laid bare by the COVID inquiry, and its stories of incompetence and personality disorder at the heart of government (shocking but expected)
2/ First up, the £, here compared to a basket of foreign currencies. Something seems to have happened to it in 2016.
3/ You might expect a falling £ to improve exports and Brexit fanatics have been boasting that they are soaring. However, they have conveniently forgotten the effect of inflation as explained here in the recent (May 11th) House of Commons Library report.