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Tom Bonier Profile picture
@tbonier
Aug 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
The Harris Effect - in the 13 states that have updated voter files since July 21st, we are seeing incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2024, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters. Image
Young Black women are leading the way, seeing their registration almost triple, relative to the same point in 2020. Young Hispanic women aren't far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020.
These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.
(the first tweet in this thread should say that it is compared to the same week in 2020, not 2024... this is all a comparison of new voter registration in the 15th week out from Eday in 2024 to the same week in 2020)

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 25
Okay, when I have time I'll do a deeper dive on post-candidate changeover voter registration trends, because it seems we are witnessing something important happening, and while we obsess over polls, quantifying actions taken by voters can be more helpful.

First up, Michigan.
Looking at the week after July 21st, we saw an immediate increase in women registering to vote. In that time period, the gender gap was +7 women, while there was effectively no gender gap in new registrations during that same week in 2020. We also saw 26% more new registrations. Image
Also, compare the +7 women gender gap in new registrantions in Michigan during the week immediately after Harris stepped up to the top of the ticket to the week immediately preceding where there was a gap of just 1.3 pts. Image
Read 7 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 23
Wow. We have a decent number of states with recent registration file updates now. I ran the gender gaps among new registrants in the two weeks after Biden's withdrawal. Women have been registering to vote at a very high rate. This is eclipsing the post-Dobbs surges most places. Image
These are the states that have released post July 21 updates so far. I will continue to update this with new states as the updates come in.
Louisiana naturally stands out. Here's a little more detail on the women who registered in the two weeks after July 21st. They were +13 GOP at that point in 2020, and +14 Dem this year. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 22
Are you ready to play the "let's overreact to very small samples of data" game? I have been impatiently waiting for updated new voter registration data from post July 21st to gauge the electoral reaction to VP Harris as the nominee. But it takes time for states to update...
I'll add states to this thread as they come in. First on the list... Alaska! In the week after July 21 in 2020, new registrants were +6 GOP. In that same week this year, they were +7 Dem. In '20 it was +2.5% women, this year it was a shocking +12% women.
In Kentucky, new registrants the week after July 21st in 2020 were +3 women. The same week this year? +12 women.
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Jul 3
We finally have the individual turnout data from the NY3 special election (where Dem Tom Suozzi won in George Santos's open seat). I found a couple of data points very interesting.
First, let's remember that Dems ran heavily on abortion in this seat, which Santos won in 2022 thanks to very low Dem turnout.
Second, GOPs tried to use immigration scare tactics as a wedge issue, with many immigrants being temporarily housed in or near the district.
Read 7 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Jun 25
On the 2nd anniversary of the Dobbs decision, I figured I'd share a reminder of how abortion rights has become the most powerful single issue in politics, and is likely more salient now than it was in 2022.
When the decision was handed down two years ago today, it was a shock but not a surprise, given the leak several weeks earlier. We were left with an open question of how it might impact the 2022 elections. The first answer would come 39 days later, from Kansas of all places.
This election was chosen to be unfavorable to abortion rights, a GOP state in a traditionally low turnout election. The only public poll showed the constitutional amendment contest very close. I remember seeing this tweet not long after polls closed:
Read 22 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
May 2
Debunking the popular theory that Nikki Haley's relatively substantial support in GOP primaries has been due to Dem leaning voters flooding the GOP primary vote, thereby suggesting that Haley's strong showing isn't actually a bad sign for Trump...
We recently analyzed the GOP primary individual turnout history in the NC primary. Haley won 23% there. Looking at the unaffiliated voters who comprised one-third of the GOP vote, there is no indication that these voters were Dems seeking to stop Trump.
They were not substantially younger than the GOP voters (41% over 65 vs 45% among reg GOPs). They were overwhelmingly white (94% of Inds vs 97% of GOPs), and were actually more likely to be men (51% of Ind GOP primary voters vs 50% of GOPs).
Read 4 tweets

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