Thread by @VLS_Appreciator

A Thread on The Troubled Development of the Sapsan Ballistic Missile, Ukraine’s ATACMS. 1/19

I see a lot of people being confused when referring to this system, switching between Hirm, Grom-2 or Sapsan, hopefully this thread will clarify the situation. 2/19

Back in 2006 the National Security and Defence Concil of Ukraine looked for a system to replace the ageing Totchka-U ballistic missile with its 120km range. Design of that system was given to the Pivdenne Design Bureau known for their work on Soviet ICMBs and rockets. 3/19

The project was called Sapsan, peregrine falcon. Development was supposed to take 10 years with a prototype planned for 2010. A testing ground was supposed to be built at Zheleznyy Port. By 2008, 25 million Hryvnas had been spent with 2 billion more needed for a 2015 IOC. 4/19

However, with the 2008 financial crisis work was stopped before being terminated in 2013, citing a mismanagement of resources by Pivdenne. 5/19

Since 2011 an off-shoot of the Sapsan project was being offered for export, the Hirm-2, also referred to as Grom. In 2013, Pivdenne received funding from an unknown customer to fund the project. 6/19

As we now know that Saudi Arabia sent 40 million dollars to the Pavlograd Chemical Plant for the development of the missile’s solid fuel engine, it is more than likely that unknown customer. 7/19

With the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea priorities shifted and Pivdenne proposed to the Defence Ministry to restart work on Sapsan with the experience they gained on Hirm-2. The target was for trials to start by 2018. 8/19

Petro Poroshenko greenlit the project and the AM Makarov Machine Building Plant was designated as the missile’s manufacturer. By 2018 engine testing began, with 12 engines produced by September 2019. 9/19

In April 2019 two prototyped had been assembled, one for Saudi Arabia and one for Ukraine. In 2021 Ukraine agreed to fund a first test battery with 2 TELs, 2 mobile loaders and 2 control units. 10/19

On August 27th 2024 president Zhelensky declared a first successful test of a domestically produced ballistic missile. 11/19

https://x.com/StratCom_AFU/status/1828408851416187313

I don’t have much to say on the design of the Sapsan itself since actual pictures of the current system are behind a wall of OpSec. Aerodynamically it will be similar to the ATACMS and Iskander with a set of four small tail control surfaces. 12/19

The Sapsan boast a range estimated to reach 500+km, more than the 280km of the Hirm-2 limited by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). This would allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russian territory independently. 13/19

The Sapsan would also threaten S-300PM1/2/3 and S-400 not optimized against ballistic threats as the poor performances against ATACMS have highlighted. Other systems such as the S-300Vs and S-500 would be able to intercept it more easily, however. 14/19

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1793893686998180059

To guide its 480kg warhead precisely to its target the system uses Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) coupled with Inertial Navigation system (INS). Ukrainan officials mentioned terminal target acquisition capabilities, but details are unclear. 15/19

That be could an active radar or an electro-optical seeker as is used on optional warheads for the 9M720 Iskander. Such a system would greatly enhance the Circular Error Probability (CEP) of the system but is more challenging to manufacture. 16/19

Batteries are mounted on 10x10 trucks from the Kharkiv Transport Machinery Plant for the TELs, loader and engagement modules. 17/19

Rumors and declarations by Ukrainian officials have pointed to potential uses in attacks on the military airfield in Saki on August 9, 2022, and Feodosia on April 8, 2023, but with no defenitive photographic evidence. 18/19

Still, it seems that development is being prioritized to compensate for the firing restrictions imposed by some partner nations. Hopefully production will ramp up and we could be expecting some spectacular fireworks by next year if trials are conclusive. 19/19

Sources:




And @FRHoffmann1 ‘s short thread on the Hirm-2.media.nti.org/pdfs/ukraine_m…
old.defence-ua.com/index.php/en/p…
missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-26-…
twz.com/air/ukraine-sa…

@FRHoffmann1 @ukraine_map @AntoniWalkowski @Iron_Man_Actual @shashj @CovertCabal @MassiasThanos @Firezstarter1 @heatloss1986 @krakek1 @DLT649 @KentLavis @KentLavis @Doha104p3 @VLO225 @John_A_Ridge @ChungTzuW @phoenix_jz @ThrustWR @AirPowerNEW1 @Decis_ @softminus @StrategicTrends @JaredGuP1

Typo: Hrim not Hirm