A Thread on The Troubled Development of the Sapsan Ballistic Missile, Ukraine’s ATACMS. 1/19
I see a lot of people being confused when referring to this system, switching between Hirm, Grom-2 or Sapsan, hopefully this thread will clarify the situation. 2/19
Back in 2006 the National Security and Defence Concil of Ukraine looked for a system to replace the ageing Totchka-U ballistic missile with its 120km range. Design of that system was given to the Pivdenne Design Bureau known for their work on Soviet ICMBs and rockets. 3/19
The project was called Sapsan, peregrine falcon. Development was supposed to take 10 years with a prototype planned for 2010. A testing ground was supposed to be built at Zheleznyy Port. By 2008, 25 million Hryvnas had been spent with 2 billion more needed for a 2015 IOC. 4/19
However, with the 2008 financial crisis work was stopped before being terminated in 2013, citing a mismanagement of resources by Pivdenne. 5/19
Since 2011 an off-shoot of the Sapsan project was being offered for export, the Hirm-2, also referred to as Grom. In 2013, Pivdenne received funding from an unknown customer to fund the project. 6/19
As we now know that Saudi Arabia sent 40 million dollars to the Pavlograd Chemical Plant for the development of the missile’s solid fuel engine, it is more than likely that unknown customer. 7/19
With the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea priorities shifted and Pivdenne proposed to the Defence Ministry to restart work on Sapsan with the experience they gained on Hirm-2. The target was for trials to start by 2018. 8/19
Petro Poroshenko greenlit the project and the AM Makarov Machine Building Plant was designated as the missile’s manufacturer. By 2018 engine testing began, with 12 engines produced by September 2019. 9/19
In April 2019 two prototyped had been assembled, one for Saudi Arabia and one for Ukraine. In 2021 Ukraine agreed to fund a first test battery with 2 TELs, 2 mobile loaders and 2 control units. 10/19
On August 27th 2024 president Zhelensky declared a first successful test of a domestically produced ballistic missile. 11/19
I don’t have much to say on the design of the Sapsan itself since actual pictures of the current system are behind a wall of OpSec. Aerodynamically it will be similar to the ATACMS and Iskander with a set of four small tail control surfaces. 12/19
The Sapsan boast a range estimated to reach 500+km, more than the 280km of the Hirm-2 limited by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). This would allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russian territory independently. 13/19
The Sapsan would also threaten S-300PM1/2/3 and S-400 not optimized against ballistic threats as the poor performances against ATACMS have highlighted. Other systems such as the S-300Vs and S-500 would be able to intercept it more easily, however. 14/19
To guide its 480kg warhead precisely to its target the system uses Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) coupled with Inertial Navigation system (INS). Ukrainan officials mentioned terminal target acquisition capabilities, but details are unclear. 15/19
That be could an active radar or an electro-optical seeker as is used on optional warheads for the 9M720 Iskander. Such a system would greatly enhance the Circular Error Probability (CEP) of the system but is more challenging to manufacture. 16/19
Batteries are mounted on 10x10 trucks from the Kharkiv Transport Machinery Plant for the TELs, loader and engagement modules. 17/19
Rumors and declarations by Ukrainian officials have pointed to potential uses in attacks on the military airfield in Saki on August 9, 2022, and Feodosia on April 8, 2023, but with no defenitive photographic evidence. 18/19
Still, it seems that development is being prioritized to compensate for the firing restrictions imposed by some partner nations. Hopefully production will ramp up and we could be expecting some spectacular fireworks by next year if trials are conclusive. 19/19
Thread on Ukraine’s Neptune: The Underdog That Struck Back. 1/20
Following the Russo-Ukrainian intergovernmental agreement on industrial, scientific and technical cooperation of the 18th November 1993, the Luch design bureau received an X-35 (Kh-35) missile from Zvezda-Strela. 2/20
From there the development of the RK-360MC Neptune development started in 2010 as a collaboration between Artem Luch and Sich Motors. While slow at first, development rapidly accelerated after the 2014 Crimean annexation. 3/20
🧵A Thread on China’s New Family of Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles: The YJ-18. 1/17
While the genesis pf the YJ-18 is unclear, it seems to originate from the studies launched by the PRC in 2000 to support its A2/AD strategies and counter the Aegis Combat System. CASIC’s Third Academy led the design process for this new class of anti-ship cruise missiles. 2/17
First public mentions of the YJ-18 started to appear in 2009 in metallurgical research papers, and in August 2010 a US documents first referred to it as the CH-SS-NX-13. Testing was finalized in 2013, it entered active service in 2014, and was paraded in October 2019. 3/17
🧵A Thread on the US’ AIM-174B and China’s YJ-12 Carrier Killer Cruise Missile: A Dance of the Vampires with Chinese Characteristics. 1/17
In light of recent events with the unveiling of the US’s new AIM-174B, let’s discuss the threat it’s mostly meant to counter, the YJ-12. 2/17
In 1995-1996, the US’s display of power during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, sending both the USS Independence and USS Nimitz carriers, profoundly shocked the PRC’s leadership. This strengthened the Chinese ambition to develop weapons powerful enough to threaten US CSGs. 3/17
Chinese Anti-Ship Missiles and the French Connection : the YJ-8 / YJ-83 Family. 1/23 🧵
In the early 1970s, seeking a replacement for their ageing P-15 Termit, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expressed the need for a new anti-ship missile, kick-starting a new prolific family of Western inspired missiles still in use today. 2/23
Development by CASIC’s Third Academy was initiated in 1976. Eventually after initial difficulties and tests in 1985 the design of the YJ-8 was finalized as a subsonic sea skimming missile with a 42km range, guided via INS with an active radar seeker for its terminal phase. 3/23
The ANS/ANF, the Cold War Franco-German supersonic antiship missile project, a short thread . 1/16 🧵
In the late 70s, the emergence of new Soviet supersonic antiship missiles like the SS-N-22 Sunburn started to worry NATO member states. As such in 1975 the NATO Project Group 16 started to work on a new antiship missile to replace the Exocet and Harpoon. 2/16
This group composed of France, the UK, the Federal Republic of Germany, the US, the Netherlands, Italy and Norway finished their detailed study by 1978 of the Advanced Surface to Surface Missile II (ASSM II), a 180km Mach 2 missile. 3/16
🧵Thread on the US Air Force’s cursed stealthy nuclear cruise missile: the AGM-129. 1/28
The tragic story of the AGM-129 is representative of disruptive but troublesome programs like the B-2 or F-22. Designed to fight a bygone enemy, they brought significant improvements in stealth to a post Cold-War world that no longer had a need for them. 2/28
In the mid-70s the US Air Force relied on the AGM-86 to carry on the air launch leg of the nuclear triad. The subsonic missile relied on its low flying abilities to ensure its survivability against Soviet air defenses. 3/28