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Aug 31 22 tweets 8 min read Read on X
A Thread on The Troubled Development of the Sapsan Ballistic Missile, Ukraine’s ATACMS. 1/19 Image
I see a lot of people being confused when referring to this system, switching between Hirm, Grom-2 or Sapsan, hopefully this thread will clarify the situation. 2/19 Image
Back in 2006 the National Security and Defence Concil of Ukraine looked for a system to replace the ageing Totchka-U ballistic missile with its 120km range. Design of that system was given to the Pivdenne Design Bureau known for their work on Soviet ICMBs and rockets. 3/19 Image
The project was called Sapsan, peregrine falcon. Development was supposed to take 10 years with a prototype planned for 2010. A testing ground was supposed to be built at Zheleznyy Port. By 2008, 25 million Hryvnas had been spent with 2 billion more needed for a 2015 IOC. 4/19 Image
However, with the 2008 financial crisis work was stopped before being terminated in 2013, citing a mismanagement of resources by Pivdenne. 5/19 Image
Since 2011 an off-shoot of the Sapsan project was being offered for export, the Hirm-2, also referred to as Grom. In 2013, Pivdenne received funding from an unknown customer to fund the project. 6/19 Image
As we now know that Saudi Arabia sent 40 million dollars to the Pavlograd Chemical Plant for the development of the missile’s solid fuel engine, it is more than likely that unknown customer. 7/19 Image
With the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea priorities shifted and Pivdenne proposed to the Defence Ministry to restart work on Sapsan with the experience they gained on Hirm-2. The target was for trials to start by 2018. 8/19 Image
Petro Poroshenko greenlit the project and the AM Makarov Machine Building Plant was designated as the missile’s manufacturer. By 2018 engine testing began, with 12 engines produced by September 2019. 9/19 Image
In April 2019 two prototyped had been assembled, one for Saudi Arabia and one for Ukraine. In 2021 Ukraine agreed to fund a first test battery with 2 TELs, 2 mobile loaders and 2 control units. 10/19 Image
On August 27th 2024 president Zhelensky declared a first successful test of a domestically produced ballistic missile. 11/19

I don’t have much to say on the design of the Sapsan itself since actual pictures of the current system are behind a wall of OpSec. Aerodynamically it will be similar to the ATACMS and Iskander with a set of four small tail control surfaces. 12/19 Image
The Sapsan boast a range estimated to reach 500+km, more than the 280km of the Hirm-2 limited by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). This would allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russian territory independently. 13/19 Image
The Sapsan would also threaten S-300PM1/2/3 and S-400 not optimized against ballistic threats as the poor performances against ATACMS have highlighted. Other systems such as the S-300Vs and S-500 would be able to intercept it more easily, however. 14/19

To guide its 480kg warhead precisely to its target the system uses Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) coupled with Inertial Navigation system (INS). Ukrainan officials mentioned terminal target acquisition capabilities, but details are unclear. 15/19 Image
That be could an active radar or an electro-optical seeker as is used on optional warheads for the 9M720 Iskander. Such a system would greatly enhance the Circular Error Probability (CEP) of the system but is more challenging to manufacture. 16/19 Image
Batteries are mounted on 10x10 trucks from the Kharkiv Transport Machinery Plant for the TELs, loader and engagement modules. 17/19 Image
Rumors and declarations by Ukrainian officials have pointed to potential uses in attacks on the military airfield in Saki on August 9, 2022, and Feodosia on April 8, 2023, but with no defenitive photographic evidence. 18/19 Image
Still, it seems that development is being prioritized to compensate for the firing restrictions imposed by some partner nations. Hopefully production will ramp up and we could be expecting some spectacular fireworks by next year if trials are conclusive. 19/19 Image
@FRHoffmann1 @ukraine_map @AntoniWalkowski @Iron_Man_Actual @shashj @CovertCabal @MassiasThanos @Firezstarter1 @heatloss1986 @krakek1 @DLT649 @KentLavis @KentLavis @Doha104p3 @VLO225 @John_A_Ridge @ChungTzuW @phoenix_jz @ThrustWR @AirPowerNEW1 @Decis_ @softminus @StrategicTrends @JaredGuP1
Typo: Hrim not Hirm

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More from @VLS_Appreciator

Aug 29
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Following the Russo-Ukrainian intergovernmental agreement on industrial, scientific and technical cooperation of the 18th November 1993, the Luch design bureau received an X-35 (Kh-35) missile from Zvezda-Strela. 2/20 Image
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Jul 8
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In 1995-1996, the US’s display of power during the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis, sending both the USS Independence and USS Nimitz carriers, profoundly shocked the PRC’s leadership. This strengthened the Chinese ambition to develop weapons powerful enough to threaten US CSGs. 3/17 Image
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Jul 2
Chinese Anti-Ship Missiles and the French Connection : the YJ-8 / YJ-83 Family. 1/23 🧵 Image
In the early 1970s, seeking a replacement for their ageing P-15 Termit, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expressed the need for a new anti-ship missile, kick-starting a new prolific family of Western inspired missiles still in use today. 2/23 Image
Development by CASIC’s Third Academy was initiated in 1976. Eventually after initial difficulties and tests in 1985 the design of the YJ-8 was finalized as a subsonic sea skimming missile with a 42km range, guided via INS with an active radar seeker for its terminal phase. 3/23 Image
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Jun 28
The ANS/ANF, the Cold War Franco-German supersonic antiship missile project, a short thread . 1/16 🧵 Image
In the late 70s, the emergence of new Soviet supersonic antiship missiles like the SS-N-22 Sunburn started to worry NATO member states. As such in 1975 the NATO Project Group 16 started to work on a new antiship missile to replace the Exocet and Harpoon. 2/16 Image
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Jun 27
🧵Thread on the US Air Force’s cursed stealthy nuclear cruise missile: the AGM-129. 1/28 Image
The tragic story of the AGM-129 is representative of disruptive but troublesome programs like the B-2 or F-22. Designed to fight a bygone enemy, they brought significant improvements in stealth to a post Cold-War world that no longer had a need for them. 2/28 Image
In the mid-70s the US Air Force relied on the AGM-86 to carry on the air launch leg of the nuclear triad. The subsonic missile relied on its low flying abilities to ensure its survivability against Soviet air defenses. 3/28 Image
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