Thread by @stacy_muur

Are CEX listings REALLY a price catalyst?

Every time a new token drops, the cry for "Wen Binance?" rings out.
But what really happens to prices after a Binance listing?

I’ve dug into the data on recent listings to find out ↓

Post-TGE CEX listings are often viewed as a bullish catalyst, boosting trading volumes and attracting new holders.

However, for protocols, these listings can be expensive, costing from $20K on smaller platforms to over $500K on Tier-1 exchanges.

The real effect? Very mixed ↓

$TON had a strong start to the year and emerged as one of the most successful L1 tokens in Q1 and Q2 of 2024.

This success drew Binance's attention, resulting in TON's listing on August 8. Following it, trading volume surged by nearly 200%, and the TON price increased by 15%.

Some numbers for $TON:
• Price before listing: $5.77
• Price on the day of listing: $5.44
• Price one week after the listing: $6.9

This is a RARE example of positive post-CEX listing traction.

Next on the list is $BANANA, a top-300 cryptocurrency and the ecosystem token for Banana Gun, one of the most popular trading and sniping bots in crypto. It was listed on Binance on July 20th.

However, the Binance listing turned out to be a "sell the news" event.

Some numbers:

• Price before listing: $67.91
• Price on the day of listing: $71.55
• Price one week after the listing: $60.37

You might think that this is an exception, but it is not.

Neutron, an IBC chain within the Cosmos hub, was listed on Binance on October 10, 2023.

Some numbers:
• Price before listing: $0.3675
• Price on the day of listing: $0.3615
• Price one week after the listing: $0.3066

Synapse, one of the most widely used Web3 bridges, experienced a significant price drop following its Binance listing on February 22, 2023.

This "1-day pump and sell" event led to a decline that lasted nearly a year.

Some numbers:
• Price before listing: $1.4042
• Price on the day of listing: $1.2325
• Price one week after the listing: $1.2939

For more examples and additional context, check out my original publication on Substack. It highlights the listing effects of $PENDLE, $RDNT, $IMX, and more ↓

stacymuur.substack.com/p/are-cex-list…

In short? The listing effect is overrated.

While listings typically lead to a temporary increase in volume and serve as a form of brand marketing, they lack a long-term impact on price.

They often turn into "sell the news" events, where existing holders offload their assets onto new investors on CEXes.