Thread by @RnaudBertrand

This is genuinely extraordinary: the latest ASPI Critical Technology Tracker is out and China is now in the lead for an incredible 57 out of the 64 key technologies of the future, i.e. 90% of the technologies.

The US leads the other 7.

A small 🧵 of what's in the report

First of all, what's ASPI (Australian Strategic Policy Institute)?

It's a quasi-governmental Australian defense think-tank that's largely funded by the Australian and US military-industrial complex.

In other words, they're very much NOT pro-China, quite the contrary...

And what's the Critical Technology Tracker?

ASPI basically identified the 64 critical technologies of the future (AI, biotechnology, EV batteries, etc.) and built a dataset to understand which countries and institutions produce the most innovative and high-impact research.

The key findings in the latest August 2024 edition are sobering:

- China leads in 57 out of 64 technologies, up from just 3 twenty years ago

- The US lost its research advantage: it was leading in 60 technologies 20 years ago, down to just 7 today

Furthermore in a number of fields, China "has built up potential monopoly positions in scientific expertise and top performing institutions", with "extremely high concentrations of research expertise" and "between 3 and 5 times the research output of the US".

Remember this 👇? That was 2014, explaining how China was "a land of rule-bound rote learners" who can't be creative.

We're 10 years after and China dominates the US in innovation in 90% of technologies, just to illustrate how fast things are moving (and how wrong Harvard was😅)

Looking at the ASPI report in more details, some things stand out.

US research is "increasingly concentrated in US technology giants" (Google, Microsoft, etc.) whereas "Chinese companies play a relatively small role" in the country' research.

Draw your own conclusion 😉

The one research institution that really stands out is the Chinese Academy of Sciences which on its own leads 31 of the 64 technologies.

It's the rough equivalent of France's CNRS or Germany's Max Planck Society. The US doesn't have such a centralized state research institution.

It's fascinating to see that China now leads the US in research for advanced semiconductor chips, given how fierce the competition is in this field.

As is often the case, this lead in research will likely translate into technological gains, and maybe ultimately market dominance.

Now let's take a look at the technology where China is most dominant, based on:

- What % of the top 10 research institution are in the country (e.g. 9 out of 10 below)

- The ratio of % of high-impact publication over 2nd-ranked country (3.6 = 41% divided by 11.4% below)

In the field of "Advanced information and communication technologies", China leads in all technologies but is most dominant in "Advanced optical communication" and "Undersea wireless communication", with 9 out of 10 dominant research institutions for both technologies.

In the field of "Advanced materials and manufacturing", China's dominance is absolutely overwhelming, with a high or medium monopolistic position in 12 out of 13 technologies.

No real surprise for the sole manufacturing superpower in the world...

In AI, China is slightly less dominant but still leads in 5 out of 6 technologies.

Only in Natural language processing does the US lead (thank you ChatGPT!)

It's in "biotech, gene technologies and vaccines" that China is weakest and the US strongest, with China leading in 4 technologies out of 7 and the US still in the lead in 3 technologies.

Probably the most surprising finding here given the crazy amounts of money the US spends in defense: China dominates the US in defense and "AUKUS-relevant" technologies, including a monopolistic position in 6 out of 10 technologies

Really makes you wonder where the money goes...

Next, this should come at no surprise to anyone given China's dominant position in EVs and green industry: it leads all technologies under "Energy and environment" with high to medium monopolistic position in 6 out of 8 technologies.

It's in quantum technologies, specifically in quantum computing, that the US has its only somewhat monopolistic position out of all 64 technologies, with 7 out of of the 10 top research institutions.

For the other 3 quantum technologies, China is in the lead.

Lastly, "Sensing, timing and navigation" with again a very strong Chinese dominance. The US only leads in atomic clocks.

To conclude, we're obviously witnessing an immense seismic shift, at a pace that truly boggles the mind given the overwhelming consensus in the West a mere 10 years ago that China "couldn't innovate".

And maybe that's the key lesson here: our biases and arrogance seem to have not only hindered our understanding of others but also impeded our own progress.