a founder recently showed me a number of consumer apps that came out of china in the last couple years. my first reaction: these r some of the most fun and craziest apps ive ever used, and they don’t exist in the us. china is indeed years ahead of the us in consumer app innovation.
second but more important observation: all these apps involve (fiat) money, and the money part is what makes them fun in the first place. meanwhile we know after all these years that crypto is a better form of money. it’s faster, uncensorable, cross border, and in many cases cheaper.
my rec for founders in the crypto consumer space. research chinese consumer apps. i can almost guarantee crypto variations of these will go viral in the west.
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that have crossed the chasm in terms strong organic developer ecosystem
Source: I spent probably 4 hours day in day out in the last 2-3 years talking to builders in the various ecosystems. At this point even without any hard data I have a pretty good internal “neural network” of where the strongest organic developer activity happens
The concrete implication of this list that I believe they have a very high chance of thriving beyond one cycle, whereas other ecosystems have a short window of opportunity (ie one cycle maybe) to prove themselves or fade into irrelevance
It’s far easier to be Warren Buffet than Stan Druckenmiller.
Last couple of years, a whole generation of retail investors and entrepreneurs have been conditioned to obsess over macro. The reality is >99% don’t have any edge whatsoever in this game. And as a result it’s counterintuitive to let macro be a factor in their decision making.
This includes some of the most famous macro pundits on Twitter. They have no edge, and they know it. But they do it anyway because they know retail love it.
2/ We start by stating that the long-term goal for any PoPW network should be to become decentralized exchanges connecting service providers and service buyers.
3/ We posit that the following conditions must be met in order for such a network to succeed:
- Standardized and simple contribution
- Trusted oracles
- Minimal monopolistic tendencies
- Agile and conservative token design
When the FTX News came out, it was 1) the SINGLE biggest collapse in history of crypto and 2) it caught EVERYONE off-guard. Yet the market was down only 20%.
That tells you about the market positioning, ie, market was already largely deleveraged and derisked.
In order for another event to cause the market to go down another 20%, that event needs to be 1) meaningfully bigger than FTX and 2) completely unexpected.
Virtually nothing satisfies these 2 conditions. Including Genesis.
Macro is a risk factor I’ve always been worried about. Still fully expect a major selloff next year which may drag crypto down. But that could very well be months+ out given CPI just started to cool down. Not to mention PA seems decorrelated suggesting macro folks had left.
Every time the government attacks us we realize that our system is only as decentralized its most centralized layers, so we need to decentralized the ENTIRE stack.
Today we learned that the stack includes 1) version control and 2) stablecoins.
When I wrote notion.so/alliancedao/Cr… I put "decentralization of all layers of the stack" as the very first section.
This is not a coincidence. This is the single most important value proposition of crypto.