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Tom Bonier Profile picture
@tbonier
Sep 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
So over the past couple of days, Nate Silver has been tweeting multiple times a day insisting that things are looking worse and worse for the Harris campaign.

One state he claims has moved 1.2 pts to Trump since the convention is WI. Let's take a look at the recent polls there. Image
6 of 10 post convention polls show Harris leading, by an average margin of 7 points. But the two GOP highschool kids' poll has the race even, Trafalgar (leaders of the red wave polls of '22) have Trump up 1, and then one Dem pollster I'm not familiar with had the race even.
Silver showed the most movement towards Trump in NC. So let's look at the post convention polls there...

It's the highschool kids again! And InsiderAdvantage, one of the four horseman of the red wave polling of '22 apocalypse. And a new red-waver.. SoCal strategies, a GOP firm! Image
Let's remember, the takeaway from 2022 was that the polls were actually pretty accurate, once you filtered out the partisan pollsters. Yet Nate Silver is using these partisan pollsters to drive a narrative that is being echoed by the Trump campaign as an act of desperation.

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More from @tbonier

Tom Bonier Profile picture
Sep 6
We now have voter file updates for 38 states that cover the week of July 21st, affording us the opportunity to quantify the reaction of the electorate to VP Harris as the nominee.
Our analysis compares new registrations during the week of 7/21/2024 to the same week in 2020, for the sake of consistency. Overall, total registrations were actually slightly down in 2024, relative to 2020 (289k to 283k). But what do the subgroups show?
First, looking at partisanship. We use modeled party ID, because not all states allow voters to register with a party. The results are stark. The 2020 new reg was +3 GOP. As Harris took over the ticket, new registrants were +22 D. Image
Read 8 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Sep 6
At long last, we have a PA voter file update that includes the week of July 21st, after VP Harris ascended to the top of the ticket....
Okay, first, when compared to the same week in 2020, total new registrations increased by 34.3% in PA in the week following Biden's withdrawal. Dem registration increased by 46.6%, GOP by 21.1%.
Demographically, once again (as we have seen in other states over this same time period) young voters led the way. New registrations among voters under 30 increased by a shocking 59.6%, relative to 2020.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 27
The Harris Effect - in the 13 states that have updated voter files since July 21st, we are seeing incredible surges in voter registration relative to the same time period in 2024, driven by women, voters of color, and young voters. Image
Young Black women are leading the way, seeing their registration almost triple, relative to the same point in 2020. Young Hispanic women aren't far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020.
These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.
Read 4 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 25
Okay, when I have time I'll do a deeper dive on post-candidate changeover voter registration trends, because it seems we are witnessing something important happening, and while we obsess over polls, quantifying actions taken by voters can be more helpful.

First up, Michigan.
Looking at the week after July 21st, we saw an immediate increase in women registering to vote. In that time period, the gender gap was +7 women, while there was effectively no gender gap in new registrations during that same week in 2020. We also saw 26% more new registrations. Image
Also, compare the +7 women gender gap in new registrantions in Michigan during the week immediately after Harris stepped up to the top of the ticket to the week immediately preceding where there was a gap of just 1.3 pts. Image
Read 7 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 23
Wow. We have a decent number of states with recent registration file updates now. I ran the gender gaps among new registrants in the two weeks after Biden's withdrawal. Women have been registering to vote at a very high rate. This is eclipsing the post-Dobbs surges most places. Image
These are the states that have released post July 21 updates so far. I will continue to update this with new states as the updates come in.
Louisiana naturally stands out. Here's a little more detail on the women who registered in the two weeks after July 21st. They were +13 GOP at that point in 2020, and +14 Dem this year. Image
Read 5 tweets
Tom Bonier Profile picture
Aug 22
Are you ready to play the "let's overreact to very small samples of data" game? I have been impatiently waiting for updated new voter registration data from post July 21st to gauge the electoral reaction to VP Harris as the nominee. But it takes time for states to update...
I'll add states to this thread as they come in. First on the list... Alaska! In the week after July 21 in 2020, new registrants were +6 GOP. In that same week this year, they were +7 Dem. In '20 it was +2.5% women, this year it was a shocking +12% women.
In Kentucky, new registrants the week after July 21st in 2020 were +3 women. The same week this year? +12 women.
Read 5 tweets

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