Thread by @C_C_Krebs

Quick 🧵 to wrap up a crazy week in Info Ops land:

I’m confident both Russia, China, and Iran have long-standing, well-formed, multifaceted plans to undermine American democracy, which includes the 2024 election.

What we’re seeing with the alleged funding of Tenet Media and the sanctions against the Doppleganger Disinfo-as-Service groups are simply workstreams in a larger Statement of Work (to McKinsey-fy this).

That’s one reason, perhaps, why DOJ included the translated strategy docs (audience, themes, specific commentators) in their charging documents, to hint at a broader undertaking.

My main takeaway right now is they’ve moved on from fake personas, instead trying to mimic or outright rent established & trusted personas.

They’ve spent years studying our social & political dynamics and they’re attacking & exploiting our trusted relationships.

One last point, not every position taken by the influencer has to align with the Kremlin’s agenda. $10m is chump change for the reach on a handful of key issues (e.g., Ukraine).

So yeah, this is far from over. But we also need to be measured in our response. DOJ’s (and other agencies) actions this week were incredibly helpful in pulling back the curtain on Russian info ops. They timed the Doppelgänger disruption at a time where it may be difficult for those actors to reconstitute their websites and build engagement. That’s a big deal! They also gave researchers a ton of intel to inform subsequent investigations. More to come, I’m sure!

Fortunately, thus far the reaction has been serious amongst the serious players on both sides of the aisle. I worry additional actions between now and the election, particularly if higher profile influencers are implicated, may draw sharp partisan attacks in response. So I suspect this may be it for the moment absent a more brazen campaign by RU (and the like).

And in thinking what these Russian, Iranian, Chinese efforts all amount to, I still tend to think these operations have little impact on specific, discrete decisions. Data is severely lacking, and there’s a paucity of research. But to date, not much concrete to suggest minds have changed on specific issues due to efforts like we saw unveiled this week.

Instead, the campaigns have an accretive effect. The buildup over time and destabilize/corrode the very firmament of our reality. Are elections impacted? Absolutely, as collateral damage.

But the point is chaos.

We can survive this. Check your priors. Take a breath. Touch grass. Demand better of our elected and community leaders, and just stop being so damn gullible. Common sense, perhaos in rare supply, can go a long way here.