Thread by @CytoplasmicANA

I put together this thread to think broadly about the support that FN can offer to get the $ASTS D2D fly wheel self-sustaining.

For those who couldn't watch live, the August FN board meeting was posted a week ago. In it, they give details on the $2B coverage enhancements.

The FirstNet Authority, was established in 2012 to oversee the creation and delivery of a nationwide public safety broadband network. The public safety community advocated for a dedicated network after the 9/11 terrorist attacks highlighted gaps in emergency communications.

It is a private-public relationship between the FNA and $T. The original contract was signed in 2017 for 6.5B and was recently report completed in late 2023. It’s a 25y agreement and ATT committed 40B to the buildout.

With the first phase completed, a new 10y agreement was signed with ATT for a total of 8.3B (bigger than orig. investment!) with 2B for coverage enhancements. During the Aug meeting, we got a few details. FN is planning on investing in satellite to device in FY25 starting 10/1/24

How do we know the S2D portion is coming to $ASTS? They are the sole D2D partner of $T and the large sats are optimized for low band frequencies (as lower frequency requires longer distance for ½ wavelength spacing).

This was only further confirmation that FN will be investing in $ASTS. There have been past signs.

https://x.com/CytoplasmicANA/status/1805052012922319231

During the August meeting, Jocelyn Moore, Programs and Future planning committee chair, said “These investments will largely focus on trial, territorial, rural areas or TTR as we like to call it, which this board has made a critical focus.

In addition to terrestrial coverage solutions in the TTR geographies we are also planning on additional investments that will, over time, enable satellite direct to device capability for first net subscribers as previously mentioned.

All of these investments ARE IN ADDITION to the 1000 new band 14 enabled sites that ATT is deploying in 2024 and 2025 as part of our Network Evolution announcement earlier this year."

The capital emphasis is mine here.

So, we have $2B in coverage enhancement, but this doesn’t include the already planned 1000 band 14 enabled sites. I tend to think since they already removed these new sites from this coverage enhancement announcement, new sites will be a smaller part of the coverage enhancements.

In thinking about how much FN money could be coming to $ASTS, there are a couple of key points. 1) How big is the TAM 2) how do alternatives (deployable)s compare to $ASTS solution 3) 2) what do alternatives cost 4) What is the FY25 network enhancement budget

TAM - 28.5K agencies have signed up and there were 6.1M connections in Q2-24. These connections likely include multiple devices per account but gives an idea on magnitude. Agencies seem to be approaching an asymptote, but connections show growth in users/devices.

Prior to D2D, FN purchased deployables to light up FN spectrum during emergencies. These include Flying COW (cell on wings) which can operate to 400ft and the FirstNet One – an approximately 55-foot aerostat (blimp).

The aerostat can fly up to 1000' and provide 2x the coverage as other deployable like the satellite cells on wheels and COWs. Stays up for 2w before it needs more helium and operation in windspeeds up to 50 mph. Tethered to a trailer to provide satellite or wireline backhaul.

This 9/2021 article quotes Sun West Engineering ( a major manufacter of COLTs) as getting in to 7 figures. Given inflation the past 3 years, this expense has only gone up.
redhat.com/architect/disa…

There are also compact rapid deployables (CRDs) which cost ~78k.

The alternatives are clunky and expensive (up to 7 figures). First net describes limitations in the deployables thusly. firstnet.gov/sites/default/…

How clunky are these?? The req. of some combo of fuel, wired backhaul, unobstructed views, low wind and/or physically bringing the device to an ?unsafe environment. What if it JustWorked(TM)? E.g. a dynamically allocated giant software defined radio in the sky w/ built in power!

Further, existing SatCom solutions aren’t integrated into the FN LTE core. They don’t support LTE specific features such as priority/preemption (PP) and the “Local Control Tool” for prioritizing users. We know PP and push to talk were successfully tested when FN visited Midland.

Lastly, In thinking about how much FN can contribute to $ASTS, the FY25 budget for network enhancements is 534M, however, “should the FNA receive any additional sources of income in FY25, including FY24 reconciliations, they will be added to FY25.

How does this compare to prior years? It is a massive increase.

My best guess is that FN investment will include a prepayment (incentivized by saying FN usuers get premption/priority etc) and a monthly fee. Why has the reinvestment/network budget doubled this year? Maybe to support a 100M prepayment for $ASTS? This is just a WAG.

The monthly charges for FN are very reasonable for a single line when compared to ATT offerings. I think this easily supports a 5-10 monthly charge when the alternative is nothing or the FN blimp 😂. They clearly didn’t get the failed Loon message from google.

During the Rakuten optimism event in June, Mickey Mikitani (CEO Rakuten) brought abel out to talk about $ASTS.

Abel noted there are 5B phones in the world leading to a 1T dollar a year market. The other opportunity is restablishing connection during emergencies. He brings up the United states’ FNA again and that cell capacity can by dynamically moved to areas of natural disaster.

Of course, there are other FirstNet's in other countries.

That’s it for right now. Great meeting everyone so far!

Special thanks to @808emanresu for the sweet profile picture marrying my two loves (rheumatology and D2D) and @kingtutcap for the video of 2024 Rakuten Optimism.

Of course, there are other FirstNet's in other countries.

That’s it for right now. Great meeting everyone so far!

Special thanks to @808emanresu for the sweet profile picture marrying my two loves (rheumatology and D2D) and @kingtutcap for the video of 2024 Rakuten Optimism.