Thread by @vatniksoep_nl

1/25In this vatniksoup I'll discuss Johannes Varwick, he's a German professor in political sciences who often partakes in the debate on the war. With his defeatism on the Ukrainian wareffort he often enhances Russian propaganda. Most recently he got tangled up in a doxxingscandal

2/25 Varwick studied law, political science and economic policy in Munster and Leeds in the 90s. In 2013 he became the professor of Political Sciences in Halle. He's been a member of the German board of the United Nations. His specialty is multilaterism.

3/25 When Russia started its invasion Varwick soon found the limelight. While his reach on X isn't huge (16k followers) his pressence on radio, tv, magazines and websites can't be underestimated. As a geopolitical analyst he became a familiar face in German media.

4/25 As s professor Varwick saw tensions rising at the end of 2021. To avoid the war he made an appeal for Ukraine to be a neutral state.
Technically speaking Ukraine should hand in it's sovereign rights on a foreign policy and shrink its army, a policy Finland once deployed.

5/25 For Ukraine it was far from a realistic option. Already in '93 Russia lay claim on Sevastopol, in '94 it supported a coup in the Crimea. In 2008 it was so bold to propose splitting up Ukraine to Polish diplomats. It's imperialistic urges were always there.

6/25 Just a few weeks into the war Varwick proposed Ukraine to capitulate as a realistic option. Ukraine should disband its army, give Russia reign over Ukraine and consequently form a government in exile in Warsaw or Berlin. "We shouldn't artificially prolong the war."

7/25 This doom and gloom have been a consistent part in his analysis. In june 2022 Varwick concluded "Ukraine is lost anyway" in december 2023 he pushed an article that states Ukraine is about to lose and in 2024 he states that the provided weapons haven't yielded much result.

8/25 Naturally Varwick is against any arms delivery thus signing the petition for peace of pro Russian Sahra Wagenknechts in 2023. That call for peace in essence meant capitulation. For Deutschlandfunk Varwick warns that a win with NATO envolvement will lead to a nuclear war.

9/25 Varwick has totally bought the Russian propaganda that 'NATO expansion' is at the pinacle of this conflict. Russia's Novorossiya concept is largely ignored. Out of a cultural perspective the Kremlin proscecution of Ukrainians can't be explained with the NATO argument.

10/25 Varwick has continously pleaded for diplomacy and even proposed Brazilian president Lula as 'neutral mediator'. In reality he's far but neutral; blaming Ukraine for the war aswell. Lula's logic "were two fight, two are responsible." is out of place.

11/25 @BerndRheinberg noted that Varwick uses a discussion technique by first giving criticism on Russian policies, upon which he uses the word 'but' to bend the story and point fingers at the West. @hubertsmeets coined the term the "Yes but eel" for this kind of argumentation.

12/25 We find an example of the "Yes but eel" in geopoitical magazine Sirius. He talks about the unacceptable anti Ukrainian policies of the Kremlin. Yet his article ends with the fact that the West should try to better understand Russia an its intetests.

13/25 In Varwicks views escalation is never far away for the West. He concluded that Russia has the 'escalation dominance' over the West, because we don't have the same interests in Ukraine.

14/25 In june Putin launched his conditions for peace demanding control of the complete territory of the four occupied provinces, thus demanding even more territory. Unlike other analysts he saw it as evidence of Russia's serious intentions to negotiate which shouldn't be ignored

15/25 According to Johannes we should "learn to read Russia's strategic goals." One could argue if he sees the bigger picture himself. Did Russia kidnap 700.000 children because of NATO or was it imperialism all along?

16/25 Maslow once said: "If your only tool is a hammer you will see every problem as a nail." Varwick's tool is negotiations and he tries to push it by all force. For Ukraine that means 'just give up your sovereignty' - land for peace -

17/25 'Realists' like Varwick ignore that Russia broke all its peacedeals the last 35 years. They ignore the faith of those Ukrainians in occupied territories. If you look at all their analyses Ukraine is hardly a theme and their knowledge on the country is seriously lacking.

18/25 Just last week Varwick became the centre of a dispute that caused a small wave in the German X community. It all started when @Lena4Berger critcized newspaper Der Freitag for giving too much room to pro Russian voices like Varwick.

19/25 In response Varwick first claimed that because of her anonimity she couldn't prove any expertise. Moreover he deemed her an AI troll we shouldn't take serious because it was a fake account anyway. The futile attempts to discredit her were obvious.

20/25 Then he took it one step further proclaiming he would offer anyone 500 euro if they could reveal Lena's true identity. This bounty off course was a clear shot at doxxing, an offense punishable on X and by German law.

21/25 The hashtag #ichbinLenaBerger (I am Lena Berger) became trending on X in Germany, even big names joined in to show solidarity. The internet community gave a clear message: Respect the right to be anonymous, putting a bounty on ones head is crossing a line.

22/25 Lena's claim is corroborated by other sources. A Ukrainian government agency already put Varwick on a list of RU propagandists in 2022. An agency of the Bayern province identified Freitag and 3 other sites were Varwick gives his analysis as outlets with a Russian narrative.

23/25 Varwicks observations are not backed up by any facts. While Lena first was merely a fake account, Varwick then speculated it was a targeted campaign run by NAFO or secret services. Wearing the cloak of victimhood he refused some media an interview as he spotted 'a set up'.

24/25 Unsurprisingly it was pro Russian AfD politician Maximilian Krah who praised his vision on Ukraine.

While Varwicks ego and stoburness stand in the way to admit his wrongdoings he will have to face the music as criminal charges have been filed according to @lena4berger .

25/25 This whole case sparks a bigger debate; when is someone a troll on X and not just someone with an opinion you don't like? Does anonymity discredit an opinion? Dutch journalist @g900ap is specialized in spotting bots, for those who have any doubt 'No Lena is not an AI bot'.

You can find soups on Maximilian Krah and Sahra Wagenknecht here
vatniksoup.com/en/soups/239/
vatniksoup.com/en/soups/150

As a writer of vatniksoup who chose anonimity I can relate to what happened to @lena4berger . If you take a critical stance and decide to expose pro Russian actors on X that comes with a price. It's because of that reason that I think Lena's privacy should be respected even more.

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