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Daniel Park Profile picture
@Daniel_E_Park
Sep 14, 2024 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Vaccines likely lower transmission, in addition to reducing infection and severe illness. New study shows Novavax and Moderna significantly reduce viral load (amount of virus) in the upper respiratory tract.

academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar…
Image
Novavax reduces viral load by 2.78 log10, while the Moderna vaccine was 2.12. The log10 scale is 10x for each step, indicating Moderna reduces viral load by just over 100x, and Novavax reduces viral load by over 600x. No significant reductions seen for others. Image
These results are in line with earlier animal models where the Novavax platform was associated with the largest decrease in viral replication in the upper respiratory tract.
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
Image
Vaccines likely reduce chances of 1) being infected, 2) developing severe illness if infected, 3) transmitting the virus to others.
Increasing vaccine uptake reduces community circulation. Lower circulation overall helps everyone, from kids to the elderly. Fewer sick days. Improves economic activity. Reduces long COVID. Fewer empty seats at the family dining table.
I should note that Pfizer was not evaluated in the study being discussed, but it could have a similar reduction to moderna based on prior studies.
nature.com/articles/s4159…
Clarification - *just over 100x" is used to indicate how close it is to 100, not a comparative indicator to novavax. The estimates are not statistically significantly different - both NVX and Moderna (& likely Pfizer as well) reduce viral load.
One more follow-up. Yes, this study is not with the current strains and w/o widespread preexisting immunity. However, many of the same immunologic principles should still be in effect today.
One potential avenue: the majority of the NVX response is not via IgG, but by mechanisms including FC effector functions. These are uniquely good at targeting viral particles for phagocytosis (clearing virus).
nature.com/articles/s4146…
There's inadequate data to quantify exact reductions expected today (likely a moving number & different per person), but it would be hard to discount the human & animal (BA.5) data entirely. Certain COVID-19 vaccines have, and likely still reduce viral load and transmission

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More from @Daniel_E_Park

Daniel Park Profile picture
Jan 17
Recent RCT: Co-administering NVX (COVID) & PCV20 (Pneumococcal) vaccines is as effective as when given separately, with no extra side effects.
This is key, as both diseases are major killers, and PCV may also reduce severe COVID by reducing pneumococcal carriage (🧵on this below) Image
Link to paper: journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-…
SARS-CoV-2 & S. pneumo can increase severity together. Early in the pandemic, we used endemic hCoV data to explore risk factors for severe illness. We found high-density S. pneumo carriage increased the risk of severe disease w/ concurrent hCoV infection.
journals.lww.com/pidj/fulltext/…Image
Read 10 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Dec 28, 2024
Nice coverage from Vox on some of the benefits of the Novavax COVID vaccine: similar effectiveness, fewer side effects, and potentially longer lasting protection. Image
Since concerns about the mRNA platform and side effects are leading causes of vaccine hesitancy, increasing awareness will increase uptake and have societal benefits.
Link to article: vox.com/even-better/39…
I've also found it effective to point out the novavax vaccine has similar side effects to routinely used vaccines that almost everyone has already received
Read 5 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Dec 24, 2024
Epidemiologists did remarkable work in the early days of COVID-19. Within months, they:
- Accurately predicted the timing of every major wave for the next 3 years.
- Warned SARS-CoV-2 would likely become endemic.
- Identified risk of aerosol transmission.
We knew from day 1 that airborne transmission was likely (like SARS-CoV-1).
As confusion w/ masks grew, we saw the urgent need to provide clarity on ventilation (e g. Excerpt from Drs. Prather @kprather88 and Milton, Oct 2020)
science.org/doi/10.1126/sc…
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10… Image
Image
Leading epidemiologists also noted that herd immunity targets were likely unattainable for eliminating the virus through vaccination.
E g. excerpt from a Dec 2020 interview (prior to vaccine rollout)
edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/vi…Image
Read 8 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Dec 9, 2024
New RCT study shows the "conventional" Novavax COVID vaccine has a similar side effect profile to the routine meningococcal vaccine, and fewer side effects than the mRNA options.
Side effects are a leading cause of COVID vaccine hesitancy. This can help. Image
Both concerns about the mRNA platform and vaccine side effects are leading causes of hesitancy.
Being able to say the NVX vaccine has similar side effects to routine vaccines that most people are familiar with could be a useful tool.
Paper:
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…Image
Lower reactogenicity with the novavax platform is fairly well established. The vaccine has a distinct immunologic response but is similarly effective and protective against infection and severe disease.

Read 4 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Dec 7, 2024
"Trust the experts" is generally a wise approach in many facets of life.
But in an era of Internet "experts" and Monday morning quarterbacks, sometimes we forget what expertise actually looks like.
Lessons from chess, pilots, and epidemiologists and applications to COVID, a 🧵
Chess: Do you know chess? Imagine being shown a chess board, with pieces placed as they were mid-game from a tournament 20 years ago, and being asked to recognize the game. Now imagine doing that with all the pieces replaced with identical discs. Image
Magnus Carlsen, chess grandmaster, does just that for multiple games shown to him without problem. He goes the extra mile and also shows the exact moves subsequently played from that position until the end of the chess game.
Read 16 tweets
Daniel Park Profile picture
Dec 6, 2024
Preprint: comparison of mRNA & protein vaccines and neurodegenerative and neuroinflammatory responses to SARS-CoV-2.
Infection causes neurological damage.
Both vaccines generally protective, but among higher-risk mice, only the protein-based vaccine was protective. Image
Caveat that this is a small mouse study, and is a preprint. Link to the paper: biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
First, the authors demonstrated that omicron had milder overall symptoms than the original Wuhan strain, but causes similar levels of neuron loss and neuroinflammation, consistent w/ risk of disease including Parkinsons. Image
Read 7 tweets

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