Thread by @billbarnwell

So, I've been thinking a lot about that viral Patrick Mahomes interceptions overturned by penalty statistic from the weekend. It felt like a bad-faith use of data. I went and took a closer look to see if that was true. 🧵

To start, this stat has no denominator. The player we would expect to lead the league in interceptions overturned by penalties since the start of 2018 is the guy who has thrown the most passes of any kind over that timeframe: Patrick Mahomes, with 3,608 pass attempts.

Jared Goff (3,508) is the only QB within 300 attempts. Because he's thrown more than anyone, Mahomes leads since 2018 in lots of things, like passes completed for exactly 13 yards (96) or yards on slants (1,215). So it's no surprise that he leads the league in overturned INTs.

After that play in the Bengals game, this stat was used to further the idea that Mahomes is being bailed out for bad passes by referees. The problem is that there's a penalty which wipes off a lot of interceptions that has nothing to do with referee judgment calls: Offsides.

Eight of those 17 interceptions were plays where a defender went offsides and Mahomes threw the ball up on a free play. Those obviously aren't bailout calls. (Furthermore, the most famous offsides call last year was on ... then-Chiefs player Kadarius Toney.)

One of the 17 didn't actually wipe off an interception - Matt Judon was flagged for unnecessary roughness during a return, and the Ravens still took possession of the football, which leaves 16 picks. (It's possible I'm missing one, but the stat in the tweet isn't sourced at all.)

So that leaves eight overturned interceptions we can ascribe to plays that involve referee judgment calls (DPI, roughing the passer, illegal contact, etc). Including the interceptions, that's about one for every 452 passes Mahomes has thrown since 2018.

It's one of the higher rates I can find, but there's one quarterback who has a higher rate of interceptions overturned by plays that involve a referee's discretion since 2018, and it isn't going to help Bengals fans who are worried about a conspiracy against them.

Joe Burrow has had eight interceptions overturned by penalties since joining the league (two offsides, four DPI, an illegal use of hands, and a defensive holding.) That's six judgment calls across 1,966 pass attempts, or one every 327.7 attempts.

In other words, Mahomes wasn't even the quarterback who had been bailed out by judgment calls from referees most often in the game he was playing on Sunday, let alone league-wide.