Thread by @BertuzLuca

Now that the dust has settled after two extremely eventful days, it's time to take a step back and figure out what this all means for EU digital policy. A few considerations, with the caveat that we probably have more questions than answers for now. Brace for a long thread. 1/18

On Monday, Brussels woke up flat-footed with the resounding resignation of Thierry Breton. Once an all-powerful Commissioner, Breton turned from a rising star to a supernova overnight. His departure leaves a massive power vacuum. My full commentary 👇2/18
content.mlex.com/#/content/1595…

Much has been written about how Breton's relationship with President von der Leyen deteriorated. There is no denying that it was personal: he tried to undermine her publicly several times, and she waited for the right moment to get rid of him, thanks to France's weakness. 3/19

But besides the personal squabbles, Breton's disappearance from the stage can dramatically change the political direction of the future commission. The Frenchman had managed to shape the narrative in Brussels, turning tech sovereignty into a mainstream policy objective. 4/18

Ironically, his Icarian fall occurred when strategic autonomy was becoming the dominating theme of the EU's political agenda. Mario Draghi's report provided the intellectual basis for a bold industrial policy that would make the EU rejoin the tech race with 🇺🇸 & 🇨🇳. 5/18

However, with Breton gone and France concentrated on nail-gazing internal politics, who will pick up the torch of strategic autonomy? The new college even divides the concepts of tech sovereignty with EVP Henna Virkkunen and industrial strategy with EVP Stéphane Séjourné. 6/18

Again, that's politics. Von der Leyen's strategy seems to be to divide and conquer. With most heavyweights out of the way, she does not seem to have any internal opponent. However, with none really in charge, the upcoming Commission might be significantly less effective. 7/18

The second question mark relates to the EU's relationship with Big Tech. Breton was the political face of the push to rein in Silicon Valley. While Brussels set out to end the 'digital Far West,' the mercurial Commissioner did not shy away from wearing the sheriff's badge. 8/18

Indeed, commissioners come and go, but landmark laws like the Digital Markets Act, Digital Services Act, and AI Act are here to stay. Still, political leadership greatly impacts how energetically the rules are applied, especially in high-profile cases. What will happen now? 9/18

Meaningfully, Virkkunen's mission letter mentions the DMA and DSA but not the AI Act. Artificial Intelligence is only referred to in the context of innovation. Draghi accused the AI law and the GDPR of clipping the wings to European companies. 10/18

https://x.com/BertuzLuca/status/1833093789977628985

In other words, Virkkunen will have to decide whether to continue the EU's collision course with Big Tech or change course. Not much in her record suggests which direction she might take, which might already be a telling indicator. But let's focus on what we know. 11/18

First and foremost, she is EPP. The center-right party tends to favor European companies, be they large or SMEs. But she is also from Finland, a tech hub with significant investments in data center & software. The national trade association is close to Big Tech's positions. 12/18

At the same time, the Finnish national champion, Nokia, is in line with other large telecom companies concerning market consolidation and industrial policy. Nokia is also a direct competitor of Huawei in the telco supply chain, so hitting Chinese vendors would favor it. 13/18

Another point to be made is the overall structure of Virkkunen's portfolio. Justice Commissioner Michael McGrath, Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, and Home Affairs Commissioner Magnus Brunner will report to her. What will be the balance of power between them? 14/18

More precisely, DG CNECT and DG JUST have had a historic rivalry regarding digital issues, which is bound to come to a head with the withdrawal of the ePrivacy and the upcoming Digital Fairness Act. How will things work out now that they are supposedly under the same roof? 15/18

The relationship between Virkkunen and Séjourné will also be one to watch. As Draghi put it, economic prosperity largely depends on uptaking digital technologies. Will Séjourné, a lightweight compared to Breton, try to impose France's dirigiste approach on tech sovereignty? 16/18

More generally, it is difficult not to notice a securitarian twist in Virkkunen's portfolio. That is coherent with the EPP's digital priorities, such as online child protection. But with such a broad remit, the Finn must pick her own priorities. Tech or security?17/18

Security for a country bordering Russia usually means cooperating with the United States, which might not be compatible with a muscular enforcement of digital rules. This tension will be a defining factor in how Virkkunen interprets the concept of 'tech sovereignty.' 18/18