Stacy Muur Profile picture
Sep 20 12 tweets 4 min read Read on X
In the first quarters of 2024, following a series of disappointing airdrops, the hype has diminished and competition for allocations has eased.

Here is my compilation of airdrop programs worth joining in Q4 2024, with FDV expectations ↓ Image
Covering every detail of each airdrop in a thread is quite challenging.

For a more in-depth exploration and steps to farm each airdrop, check out my publication on Substack (and don't forget to subscribe!) ↓

stacymuur.substack.com/p/airdrops-to-…
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#1: @MorphoLabs

Morpho is a trustless, efficient lending platform that facilitates the creation of permissionless markets. It rapidly achieved the position of the 6th largest lending market on @DefiLlama by TVL, with a current TVL of $1.4 billion. Image
Morpho’s Airdrop campaign isn't point-based. Instead, users can specify the expected FDV to observe changes in the asset supply and borrow APY.

For instance, the example below uses a $1B FDV. Image
In terms of FDV expectations, @MorphoLabs' closest competitors are @compoundfinance ($444M FDMC), @VenusProtocol ($210M FDMC), and @KaminoFinance ($660M FDMC).
On August 1, Morpho raised $50M in a strategic funding round (FDV not disclosed). Assuming 10–15% of tokens were sold during this round, this implies an FDV of $330M–$500M.

Given that all VC rounds are typically discounted, Morpho's FDV at launch might be close to $1B.
#2: @SunriseLayer

Sunrise is a specialized data availability (DA) layer designed for proof-of-liquidity (PoL) and fee abstraction. In the genesis $RISE airdrop, 12% are to be distributed to early users. Image
So far, over 200K users have joined the testnet and the DAUs have grown to around 50,000 and are still increasing.

Sunrise's closest competitors are Celestia ($4.7B FDV), Avail ($1.2B FDV), and KYVE ($24M FDV).

I anticipate the launch FDV to be between $300M and $500M.
#3: @0xMantle's $COOK

Mantle, an Ethereum L2, is currently running the Metamorphosis campaign, after which the new $COOK tokens will be distributed to the community. $COOK will serve as the future governance token for Mantle’s LST (mETH, one of the largest LSTs by TVL) and LRT (cmETH, a new liquid restaking primitive).
The process for farming the upcoming COOK is straightforward with various options available.

The key is to acquire some mETH (preferably on Mantle, as it earns more Powder per day) and then boost its rewards by participating in different DeFi activities. Image
$mETH is currently the 5th largest LST, nearing Jito ($2.1B FDMC) and Marinade Finance ($100M FDMC) by TVL.

With $COOK serving as the governance token for both mETH and the upcoming cmETH, the launch FDV might range between $150M and $300M.

Hopefully, Mantle will avoid the low float, high FDV approach.
Other airdrops worth your attention include:

• @StoryProtocol
• @soneium
• @hyperlane

I've covered each of them more in detail in my Substack article.

Enjoy reading!stacymuur.substack.com/p/airdrops-to-…

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More from @stacy_muur

Sep 17
Are token unlocks potential sell signals?
What does historical data reveal about trading these events?

• Key insights from @MessariCrypto's Cliff Unlocks report
• Crucial events to watch
• Tools to track inflation

All in one thread ↓ Image
This in-depth report, now a classic feature, is also available on my Substack with additional context and details on key cliff unlocks and daily emission changes.

If you enjoy my work, be sure to subscribe ↓
open.substack.com/pub/stacymuur/…
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One of the inspirations for covering this topic is @MessariCrypto's latest research on navigating markets around cliff unlocks.

You can check it out here:


I'll highlight some of its findings below ↓ messari.io/report/don-t-l…
Image
Read 14 tweets
Sep 16
The @NEARProtocol journey: From and program synthesis to becoming one of the largest L1s, powering:

• Chain Abstraction
• Open web experiences
• Affordable data availability

Get ready to dive into the story behind NEAR's Black Dragon ↓ NEAR.ai
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NEAR was originally founded as in 2017 by @ilblackdragon and @AlexSkidanov. It focused on exploring program synthesis (computer-automated software development).

Initially, it was intended to be built on Ethereum, but the technology capabilities were insufficient.NEAR.aiImage
So, in August 2018, the team began developing the NEAR network to offer developers easier tools for building scalable decentralized applications.

After nearly 2 years of development, NEAR officially launched in April 2020 and completed the final phase of its mainnet launch in October 2020.Image
Read 11 tweets
Sep 12
The red market is the ultimate stress test for protocols, exposing where the real users are.

Here's my big research on the state of Ethereum L2s, packed with visuals and on-chain data insights ↓ Image
Since 2023, new Ethereum L2s have emerged rapidly, with @l2beat now tracking data on 74 L2s and 30 L3s.

However, only a few general-purpose rollups have gained mainstream traction, attracting significant TVL and users. This research focuses on the nine largest ones ↓
Market Cap: Circulating and Fully Diluted

Most L2s currently have a multi-billion-dollar FDV but a circulating market cap below $1B, indicating that a large portion of their tokens are still not in circulation.

The exception is @0xMantle, with 52% of its supply unlocked, making it the only L2 with a circulating market cap exceeding $1B.Image
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Read 14 tweets
Sep 9
What does the future of @solana look like?

Key insights from @Delphi_Digital's "Solana the Modular" research ↓ Image
In this thread, I will highlight:

• Solana's role in Ethereum and Bitcoin scaling theses
• The landscape of Solana L2s
• Solana Permissioned Environments (SPEs)
• Solana’s emerging role as a sequencer

Full version on Substack ↓
stacymuur.substack.com/p/what-does-th…
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To understand the impact of Solana’s modularity, we need to look back and see what made this thesis possible. The cornerstone of this journey was separating the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) from the Validator Client.

This paved the way for SVM rollups, subnets, and much more. Image
Read 20 tweets
Sep 8
𝕏 offers quick data insights but can be overwhelming.

This year, my top move as a researcher was turning my email inbox into a goldmine of high-quality data.

20 awesome newsletters to follow if you're in Web3 ↓ Image
#1: @TheDeFiInvestor's Substack

Topics:
• Weekly DeFi updates
• Market overview
• Crypto activities guides & strategies
• Projects and narratives overview

To subscribe: thedefinvestor.com
Image
#2: Ecoinometrics by @ecoinometrics

Topics:
• In-depth macro research
• On-chain trends
• Bitcoin analytics

To subscribe: ecoinometrics.substack.com
Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 5
Chain abstraction is inevitable.

@SocketProtocol has released their Whitepaper, detailing their approach to streamlining the Web3 user experience.

Here's my ELI5 (and why Socket is a player to watch closely)↓ Image
Since Ethereum announced its rollup scaling roadmap, we have seen many dozens of optimistic and ZK rollups entering the market and increasing the liquidity and UX fragmentation.

Back in 2021, Ethereum accounted for 90%+ of DeFi TVL.
Today, it accounts for just 56%. Image
Today, the average Ethereum user faces a fragmented experience across various L2s. Managing multiple balances, tokens, and gas fees is cumbersome, and the issue worsens as more chains are introduced.

Ironically, as the number of chains increases, the distance between apps and their users seems to grow.Image
Read 12 tweets

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