Spicy Takeaways from Token 2049
Hundreds of side events, heated debates, strange crypto parties, and a whole lot of euphoria. Still recovering from last night’s insanely spicy hotpot, but here are my 13 (not really) spicy takes from Token 2049🌶️
1. Fragmentation and Fight for Attention
One highlight of Token 2049 was the ATH in side events—over 600—reflecting the current fragmentation of the space.
VC-funded projects were clearly fighting for attention, striving to out-innovate each other in events, dinners, and marketing. I sensed saturation and overfunding in the private market.
2. SOL vs. ETH
There’s no doubt that Solana dominated the conversation. Breakpoint showcased an impressively strong Solana community.
Meanwhile, ETH is still struggling with its identity crisis. I’ve noticed a lack of Bayesian thinking among some ETH investors, who are struggling to update their thesis despite recent data points.
It’s important to note that even though sentiment is down, ETH positioning has barely changed. Most holders I know haven’t meaningfully adjusted their ETH allocations. However, cracks are starting to show, as some are beginning to swap their ETH for SOL.
3. Alt L1 Resurgence?
It’s clear that Solana’s success and the ETH philosophical debate have reignited the alt L1 thesis like never before. Some claimed SOL would be an ETH killer, while others suggested other L1s could be SOL killers.
Monad and Berachain grabbed the spotlight, but when I asked why people were bullish, the main argument came down to one thing: their TPS is higher than the competition. Sui was also frequently mentioned.
The question is: do we really need so much more blockspace?
4. Unsuccessful L1s/L2s Pivoting to B2B Tech Providers
I’ve noticed that several tier 1 L1s/L2s, which have struggled to gain attention and usage over the past year, are now pivoting to become infrastructure providers for rollups and appchains. These strategic shifts often focus on B2B deals that don’t create meaningful value for the companies’ tokens. This trend appears bearish for token holders but potentially bullish for equity holders.
5. What Are Fundamentals?
There’s a resurgence of focus on fundamentals in crypto, but market participants don’t seem to agree on what those fundamentals are: profitability, cash flows, organic vs. inorganic yield, volume, transactions, TVL, TPS?
While it makes sense that crypto will gradually converge on fundamentals, I’ve noticed that a strong focus on fundamentals and cash flows often coincides with market bottoms. As Howard Marks says, when markets are at their lowest, the cry for fundamental analysis rings loudest, as fear drives a flight to quality.
6. Aave = DeFi?
The DeFi Renaissance thesis is crystallizing, yet aside from Aave—now quite consensus—most investors remain unconvinced by other DeFi bets...
May I suggest looking at Pendle?
7. VC vs. Liquid
At Token 2049, I spoke with many tier 1 projects shifting their focus from VCs to liquid funds, targeting:
- Liquid Investors: Due to the lack of secondary buyers.
- Liquidity Providers: As the competition for capital and attention intensifies.
Many VCs, realizing the tide is shifting, are starting to launch liquid funds. However, it’s currently tough to raise for these funds due to a lack of flows. The reason is straightforward: most liquid funds have underperformed BTC over the past year. I still believe that liquid funds will meaningfully outperform VCs this cycle.
For more context, I previously wrote about high FDV tokens:
8. Infra vs. Apps
Slowly but surely, people are starting to agree that we’ve lost ourselves in the infra ivory tower. Crypto needs more apps and tangible use cases.
DeFi and DePIN are the two sectors that garnered the most bullish sentiment for new app development. However, I haven’t heard any consensus on specific apps that people are excited about.
9. Use the Products
I never thought I’d still be saying this, but using the products actually gives you an edge. It’s wild how many investors and researchers write 20-page reports without even using what they’re analyzing.
After countless conversations, I’d estimate that at least 75% of investors don’t actively engage with the products they invest in. Jez has a good take 👇
10. Hyperliquid: The Perp DEX Chad
Hyperliquid is crushing it. Slick UX and quickly becoming the go-to exchange for many. Opinions are split—some love it, some hate it.
Traders are quite transparent: some are sitting on huge bags of points, betting big on the token launch. Hard to predict how it will initially perform, but one to watch closely!
11. Memecoins Are Still Underallocated
How you interpret this is up to you, but it’s striking that most institutional funds and whales have 0% exposure to any memecoin—not even DOGE or PEPE.
12. GameFi Has Been Forgotten
I barely heard anyone mention web3 gaming or express excitement about it. I think this apathy marks a sentiment bottom.
I’m confident we’ll see a resurgence in web3 gaming, with several projects currently offering extremely attractive R/R at their valuations—but that’s a topic for another day...
13. Singapore
First time in Singapore, and I’m impressed. It’s obvious why it’s one of the strongest up-and-coming nations. Wandering around at 4 AM without a second thought was a pleasant experience.
For more insights, definitely worth checking out this thread 👇
That's a wrap! Let me know what you think and if your Token 2049 experience was different.
It was a pleasure meeting many Twitter frens in person in Singapore. See you all next in Bangkok for Devcon! 🫡
Hundreds of side events, heated debates, strange crypto parties, and a whole lot of euphoria. Still recovering from last night’s insanely spicy hotpot, but here are my 13 (not really) spicy takes from Token 2049🌶️
1. Fragmentation and Fight for Attention
One highlight of Token 2049 was the ATH in side events—over 600—reflecting the current fragmentation of the space.
VC-funded projects were clearly fighting for attention, striving to out-innovate each other in events, dinners, and marketing. I sensed saturation and overfunding in the private market.
2. SOL vs. ETH
There’s no doubt that Solana dominated the conversation. Breakpoint showcased an impressively strong Solana community.
Meanwhile, ETH is still struggling with its identity crisis. I’ve noticed a lack of Bayesian thinking among some ETH investors, who are struggling to update their thesis despite recent data points.
It’s important to note that even though sentiment is down, ETH positioning has barely changed. Most holders I know haven’t meaningfully adjusted their ETH allocations. However, cracks are starting to show, as some are beginning to swap their ETH for SOL.
3. Alt L1 Resurgence?
It’s clear that Solana’s success and the ETH philosophical debate have reignited the alt L1 thesis like never before. Some claimed SOL would be an ETH killer, while others suggested other L1s could be SOL killers.
Monad and Berachain grabbed the spotlight, but when I asked why people were bullish, the main argument came down to one thing: their TPS is higher than the competition. Sui was also frequently mentioned.
The question is: do we really need so much more blockspace?
4. Unsuccessful L1s/L2s Pivoting to B2B Tech Providers
I’ve noticed that several tier 1 L1s/L2s, which have struggled to gain attention and usage over the past year, are now pivoting to become infrastructure providers for rollups and appchains. These strategic shifts often focus on B2B deals that don’t create meaningful value for the companies’ tokens. This trend appears bearish for token holders but potentially bullish for equity holders.
5. What Are Fundamentals?
There’s a resurgence of focus on fundamentals in crypto, but market participants don’t seem to agree on what those fundamentals are: profitability, cash flows, organic vs. inorganic yield, volume, transactions, TVL, TPS?
While it makes sense that crypto will gradually converge on fundamentals, I’ve noticed that a strong focus on fundamentals and cash flows often coincides with market bottoms. As Howard Marks says, when markets are at their lowest, the cry for fundamental analysis rings loudest, as fear drives a flight to quality.
6. Aave = DeFi?
The DeFi Renaissance thesis is crystallizing, yet aside from Aave—now quite consensus—most investors remain unconvinced by other DeFi bets...
May I suggest looking at Pendle?
7. VC vs. Liquid
At Token 2049, I spoke with many tier 1 projects shifting their focus from VCs to liquid funds, targeting:
- Liquid Investors: Due to the lack of secondary buyers.
- Liquidity Providers: As the competition for capital and attention intensifies.
Many VCs, realizing the tide is shifting, are starting to launch liquid funds. However, it’s currently tough to raise for these funds due to a lack of flows. The reason is straightforward: most liquid funds have underperformed BTC over the past year. I still believe that liquid funds will meaningfully outperform VCs this cycle.
For more context, I previously wrote about high FDV tokens:
8. Infra vs. Apps
Slowly but surely, people are starting to agree that we’ve lost ourselves in the infra ivory tower. Crypto needs more apps and tangible use cases.
DeFi and DePIN are the two sectors that garnered the most bullish sentiment for new app development. However, I haven’t heard any consensus on specific apps that people are excited about.
9. Use the Products
I never thought I’d still be saying this, but using the products actually gives you an edge. It’s wild how many investors and researchers write 20-page reports without even using what they’re analyzing.
After countless conversations, I’d estimate that at least 75% of investors don’t actively engage with the products they invest in. Jez has a good take 👇
10. Hyperliquid: The Perp DEX Chad
Hyperliquid is crushing it. Slick UX and quickly becoming the go-to exchange for many. Opinions are split—some love it, some hate it.
Traders are quite transparent: some are sitting on huge bags of points, betting big on the token launch. Hard to predict how it will initially perform, but one to watch closely!
11. Memecoins Are Still Underallocated
How you interpret this is up to you, but it’s striking that most institutional funds and whales have 0% exposure to any memecoin—not even DOGE or PEPE.
12. GameFi Has Been Forgotten
I barely heard anyone mention web3 gaming or express excitement about it. I think this apathy marks a sentiment bottom.
I’m confident we’ll see a resurgence in web3 gaming, with several projects currently offering extremely attractive R/R at their valuations—but that’s a topic for another day...
13. Singapore
First time in Singapore, and I’m impressed. It’s obvious why it’s one of the strongest up-and-coming nations. Wandering around at 4 AM without a second thought was a pleasant experience.
For more insights, definitely worth checking out this thread 👇
That's a wrap! Let me know what you think and if your Token 2049 experience was different.
It was a pleasure meeting many Twitter frens in person in Singapore. See you all next in Bangkok for Devcon! 🫡
https://x.com/0xLouisT/status/1834204382889386149
https://x.com/izebel_eth/status/1837661846058225851
https://x.com/0x_ale/status/1837508133633016023
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