Thread by @JordanFlorit

Using the CIES Demographic Atlas to Analyse Liga FUTVE 2024 🔎📊

@CIES_Football have a number of tools and studies that can be used to get an overview of Venezuela’s top flight.

I’ll add context to it, from ‘Club-Trained’ prowess to squad building instability.

🧵A Thread:

Let’s start with looking at teams’ attitude towards ‘Club-Trained’ players, defined by CIES as the “% of minutes by players who have been in the employer club for at least three seasons between the ages of 15-21.”

The average in Liga FUTVE is 17.4%, ranking it 16th out of 51.

As seen in the previous tweet, Caracas lead Liga FUTVE in this regard and 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗸 𝟭𝟬𝘁𝗵 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 for ‘club-trained’ player usage and second only to Club Libertad in South America.

Out of the 9 CONMEBOL leagues in the data, the order is:

🇦🇷🇨🇴🇺🇾🇨🇱🇵🇾🇻🇪🇪🇨🇧🇷🇵🇪.

Three of Liga FUTVE’s 14 teams have a ‘Club-Trained’ usage over 20%:

🇾🇪 Caracas - 51.1%
🏁 Zamora - 34.9%
🇮🇩 Estudiantes - 28.3%

At the other end of the scale, 4 are at under 10%:

📉 Angostura - 9.4%
⬇️ Puerto Cabello - 6%
⏬️ Portuguesa - 3.7%
⏬️ UCV FC - 3.7%

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁:

At the end of 2021, the ‘Juvenile Rule’ was scrapped. Since 2007, FUTVE teams were obligated to have at least one teenager on the field at all times (sometimes 2). There was necessity to have club-trained players.

For Caracas there still is: player sales.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

They probably won’t qualify for continental football for 2025, less so Copa Libertadores (prize money of ~$3.5m) but they have made up much of that likely financial shortfall through 2024 player transfers while keeping outgoings low.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

In 2024, they’ve transferred: Saul Guarirapa and Diego Luna to Russia, Bryant Ortega and Renne Rivas (loan fee) to Saudi Arabia, Bianneider Tamayo to Chile, Yair Ramos to USA (loan fee), & Ade Oguns to Morocco (loan fee).

That’s unparalleled.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

Zamora & Estudiantes in 2º & 3º has simple logic to it, too.

In the last decade (2010-2019), no Liga FUTVE club exported more players abroad than Zamora. Although that’s slowed right down, it has a present after effect.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

There is also a strong (private) academy culture in Barinas with the best talent quickly moving into Zamora’s youth ranks at an early age – Escuela Palacio Fajardo, for example.

In Merida, it’s similar. It’s also a cultural football hotbed.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

At the other end of the scale are UCV FC at just 3.7% of minutes going to ‘club-trained’ players.

The past 3 years (the sample) have been their first 3 back in Liga FUTVE after a 32-year absence.

The first 3 seasons were defined by survival.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

This season is defined by new ownership and consequential investment into new players, many of whom were FUTVE returnees from abroad & foreigners with the intention of quick success.

In that regard, it’s working: they’re top of the table.

𝗠𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗴𝗲…

Liga FUTVE has an average age of 27.5 “on the pitch.” It’s ranked the 20th oldest league in the data, but only Argentina (27.3) and Uruguay (27) are younger in CONMEBOL – and only marginally so.

The data is for the 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻.

𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝟯 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀…

CIES data shows 3 Liga FUTVE clubs are in the Top 50 worldwide (58 leagues, 900+ clubs) for % of minutes played by U21s:

23rd - La Guaira (21.8%)
33rd - Caracas (20.2%)
48th - Monagas (17.8%)

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁:

La Guaira's youth usage in the past 3 years has two main factors; more recently, the selections of previous Head Coach @kikegarcia17, who was the Liga FUTVE Head Coach who gave the most minutes and appearances to youth players in the 2023 Regular Season.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

Under ‘Kike’, La Guaira gave a league high 3762 minutes to 2004-2007 born players over a league high 76 appearances, accounting for 13.57% of total play time.

He dominated leaderboards for Youth Usage when I analysed it at the end of 2023.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝘄𝗮𝘀…

…the wave of talent that preceded Kike that gave the institution the belief in young players.

Tuti Andrade is genuinely one of the best U20s in Brazil, Jose Riasco was sold to MLS for $1m+, and Jon Aramburu is a starter in La Liga.

𝐁𝐲 𝐔𝟐𝟏𝐬 𝐅𝐢𝐞𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝟑 𝐘𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬…

Four Liga FUTVE teams ranked in the Top 40 globally (58 leagues, +900 teams):

Caracas - Joint-8th (31)
Metropolitanos - Joint-11th (28)
Monagas - Joint-12th (27)
La Guaira - Joint-13th (26)

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁:

In the timeframe being considered, Caracas have twice finished Runners-Up of the league (‘21 & ‘23), Metropolitanos have, too (2024 Clausura), as well as being the 2022 Champions, beating Monagas in the Final.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

Carabobo have fielded the fewest U21s in Liga FUTVE (13) during this time and for the lowest % of minutes (2.6%).

In that time, they’ve qualified for the Libertadores twice (‘23 & ‘25), the Sudamericana (‘24), and won the 2024 Apertura.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

That is to say there is more than one way to skin a cat. You can have on–pitch success with or without kids, but in a league like Venezuela’s it’s probably best to do it with, from a business perspective.

There is a common denominator, though.

𝗟𝗲𝘁’𝘀 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗮𝘁 ‘𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆’…

The “Average months in the employer club’s first team squad for line-ups fielded.”

Champions of Europe Real Madrid’s figure is 58.3 months (4.9 years!) Man City’s figure is 45.6 (3.8 years). They’ve won 4 consecutive PL titles.

Out of the 51 leagues studied, the average ‘Stability’ is 20.7 months.

Not a single FUTVE club meets the average. In fact, Venezuela has the second least stable league studied at 12.6 months, only above Serbia’s 12.5.

Chile (20.8) is the only CONMEBOL league above the average.

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁:
The common denominator for success in recent years in FUTVE? Stability in the second most unstable league.

The 4 most ‘stable’ clubs are:
• Carabobo (19.6)
• Tachira (16.9)
• Rayo (16)
• Metro (14.3)

The last 4 Champions?
- Carabobo, Tachira, Metro, Tachira

𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗻𝘂𝗲𝗱:

I commented on this ahead of the 2022 Final between Metro & Monagas. At the time, the 3 longest-serving Head Coaches were:

🥉J. Ferreira (Monagas) - 1033 days
🥈J.M Morr (Metro) - 1398 days
🥇D. Farías (La Guaira) - 1644 days

Can we draw a one-tweet conclusion from this?

FUTVE is a league that is ageing but still fields a lot of youth (8.8% of mins) and has an above average % of club-trained players. You can win with or without youth usage. In an unstable league, stability is the strongest predictor.

Hey, @threadreaderapp unroll, please. 🇻🇪⚽️