Robert Sterling Profile picture
Sep 27, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The Economist published a brutal takedown of the woke movement this week.

tldr: Wokeism isn’t dead yet, but it’s suffering a significant (and much needed) statistical decline.

Let’s dive into the numbers 👇 Image
Contrary to what many believe, 2020/2021 represented the *peak* of wokeism, not the genesis.

The woke movement gained much of its momentum in 2015, with—you guessed it—the announcement of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Image
This peak is evident across public opinion, the media, and higher education alike.

The business world was slower to adopt wokeism, only doing so after the death of George Floyd. But it also now jettisoning it (yes, DEI really was a ZIRP phenomenon). Image
The percent of people worried “a great deal” about race relations declined from 48% in 2021 to 35% today.

Kids and even some leftists are tired of wokeism: “Some of the biggest leaps and subsequent declines in woke thinking have been among young people and those on the left.” Image
People aren’t burned out on just the racial aspects of wokeness. Opposition to trans athletes playing competitive sports outside of their biological sex has increased from 53% to 61% over the last two years.

The #MeToo movement is also apparently running out of steam. Image
Even the mainstream media is finally realizing that people are tired of woke indoctrination. Newspapers are using terms like “intersectionality” and “microaggression” less often.

In the NYT, “white privilege” went from being published 2.5 times per 1M words to just 0.4 times. Image
The same decline in woke-speak is also seen in academic papers.

Given how much of the media and online discourse is downstream of academia, this is (hopefully) an additional leading indicator that wokeism will continue its downward trajectory. Image
Speaking of universities, calls for professors to be fired for expressing unpopular beliefs also peaked in 2021 and is now on the decline. (Remember, academic freedom only applies if you’re chanting “from the river to the sea,” not when you’re questioning affirmative action.) Image
Perhaps most important for regular Americans, wokeism is declining in the workplace.

Mentions of DEI in earnings calls is only 3x compared to before the death of George Floyd (compared to 14x in the near aftermath).

DEI exec roles are also rapidly disappearing (again, ZIRP).
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Companies are terrified of the backlash and boycotts that Budweiser and Target recently faced. @MattWalshBlog and @robbystarbuck are making a tangible difference in restoring sanity to corporate America. Image
Lastly, this summary of wokeism—coming from a mainstream, center-left business publication—is absolutely brutal.

If more mainstream outlets adopt this mindset, maybe there is some small measure of hope for our future. Image

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More from @RobertMSterling

Sep 8
Paul Singer has led activist campaigns against some of the largest companies on earth—AT&T, SoftBank, BP, Southwest.

He even commandeered a navy vessel after Argentina defaulted on its debt.

Last week, he set his sights on Pepsi.

Let's dive into his thesis and plan 🥤👇 Image
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PART 1: INVESTMENT THESIS

PepsiCo is currently undervalued, reflecting investors' lack of confidence in growth.

It's valued at 18x earnings, compared to a historical average of 22x.

PepsiCo now trades at a 4.1x P/E discount to peers, rather than its average 1.4x premium. Image
PepsiCo has grown revenue at a 9% CAGR over the last 60 years (nearly triple the annual growth in US GDP each year, or more than 25x US GDP growth in aggregate).

Today, PepsiCo's 200+ brands generate $92B in annual revenue. Image
Read 30 tweets
Aug 27
An activist investor just released a turnaround plan for Cracker Barrel. It's incredible reading.

Sardar Biglari, who fixed Steak 'n Shake after 2008, has owned $CBRL shares for 14 years. And he's not happy with how his investment has gone.

Let's dive into the 120-page plan 👇 Image
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Cracker Barrel stock is down nearly 50% over the last year, compared to a 28% gain in the S&P 500.

Over the last five years, the stock is down 70%, compared to a gain of 108% in the index. Image
Even prior to Covid, guest traffic was decreasing 1-2% per year. Over the past two years, it's down 3.5% and 5.0% (these are *massive* declines for a restaurant chain).

Operating income has decreased 84%(!) since FY19. Image
Read 21 tweets
Jun 10
🧵 “Why care about California? It’s more Mexican than American at this point.”

Respectfully, no. This is wrong. California isn’t just American; California is America itself, every bit as much as the colonies of New England or the plains states of the Heartland. We must cherish and protect every inch of it, no less than we would the forestland of Georgia or the prairie brush of Texas.Image
When tens of thousands of gold prospectors braved the Rocky Mountains and the Great Basin Desert in search of the quintessential American promises—self-reliance, wealth, a new beginning—it was to California’s mines they trekked. California is where they built San Francisco from a remote backwater of just 200 souls into the 19th century's most important city in America and the most significant trading hub in the world.Image
In World War II, it was California’s 140 military installations that housed 1.6M American GIs, and it was largely through the ports of Los Angeles and San Francisco that many of them embarked to the Pacific theater. For tens of thousands of them, California’s coastline would be the last American soil they would ever see in life.Image
Read 15 tweets
May 9
I can’t stop laughing at all the Chicago pope memes. Truly one of the best days on Twitter in the last 2,000 years.

Here’s a thread with some of my favorites 😂🧵 Image
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Read 23 tweets
Apr 9
President Trump is walking on a tightrope.

The tariff situation is causing massive ripple effects throughout the economy. Failing to resolve the situation quickly means risking the return of a disastrous condition from 50 years ago.

Let’s talk about stagflation 🧵👇 Image
If you’re not familiar with it, stagflation is the combination of three painful economic phenomena:

1. High inflation
2. Slow or negative economic growth
3. High unemployment

Our parents experienced it in the 70s and 80s. The effects were devastating, and the remedy was costly. Image
Stagflation is worse than an economic recession.

Stagflation a self-reinforcing financial doom loop, devouring everything in its path. The economy slows down, jobs disappear, and yet—paradoxically—prices still rise.

It’s the worst of all worlds. Image
Read 15 tweets
Apr 4
THREAD: Here's what a dive bar in Memphis taught me about tariffs, global trade, and domestic manufacturing.

(Yes, I'm being serious.)

Let's talk about why it's so hard to produce things in America, what it means for our country, and what we can do about it 🧵👇 Image
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Years ago, I worked on a corpdev team at a large industrial conglomerate. This company was a major player in basically every material in the world, from crude oil to glass to fertilizer.

There was only one thing missing: Steel.

So—naturally!—we decided to build a steel mill. Image
We worked with a boutique investment bank (Ari, if you're reading this, you're still the craziest finance wizard I've ever met), partnered with a major PE firm, wrote an absurdly large check, and got to work building a brand new steel mill in the middle of freaking nowhere. Image
Read 12 tweets

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