Robert Sterling Profile picture
Sep 27, 2024 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
The Economist published a brutal takedown of the woke movement this week.

tldr: Wokeism isn’t dead yet, but it’s suffering a significant (and much needed) statistical decline.

Let’s dive into the numbers 👇 Image
Contrary to what many believe, 2020/2021 represented the *peak* of wokeism, not the genesis.

The woke movement gained much of its momentum in 2015, with—you guessed it—the announcement of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Image
This peak is evident across public opinion, the media, and higher education alike.

The business world was slower to adopt wokeism, only doing so after the death of George Floyd. But it also now jettisoning it (yes, DEI really was a ZIRP phenomenon). Image
The percent of people worried “a great deal” about race relations declined from 48% in 2021 to 35% today.

Kids and even some leftists are tired of wokeism: “Some of the biggest leaps and subsequent declines in woke thinking have been among young people and those on the left.” Image
People aren’t burned out on just the racial aspects of wokeness. Opposition to trans athletes playing competitive sports outside of their biological sex has increased from 53% to 61% over the last two years.

The #MeToo movement is also apparently running out of steam. Image
Even the mainstream media is finally realizing that people are tired of woke indoctrination. Newspapers are using terms like “intersectionality” and “microaggression” less often.

In the NYT, “white privilege” went from being published 2.5 times per 1M words to just 0.4 times. Image
The same decline in woke-speak is also seen in academic papers.

Given how much of the media and online discourse is downstream of academia, this is (hopefully) an additional leading indicator that wokeism will continue its downward trajectory. Image
Speaking of universities, calls for professors to be fired for expressing unpopular beliefs also peaked in 2021 and is now on the decline. (Remember, academic freedom only applies if you’re chanting “from the river to the sea,” not when you’re questioning affirmative action.) Image
Perhaps most important for regular Americans, wokeism is declining in the workplace.

Mentions of DEI in earnings calls is only 3x compared to before the death of George Floyd (compared to 14x in the near aftermath).

DEI exec roles are also rapidly disappearing (again, ZIRP).
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Companies are terrified of the backlash and boycotts that Budweiser and Target recently faced. @MattWalshBlog and @robbystarbuck are making a tangible difference in restoring sanity to corporate America. Image
Lastly, this summary of wokeism—coming from a mainstream, center-left business publication—is absolutely brutal.

If more mainstream outlets adopt this mindset, maybe there is some small measure of hope for our future. Image

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More from @RobertMSterling

May 9
I can’t stop laughing at all the Chicago pope memes. Truly one of the best days on Twitter in the last 2,000 years.

Here’s a thread with some of my favorites 😂🧵 Image
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Read 23 tweets
Apr 9
President Trump is walking on a tightrope.

The tariff situation is causing massive ripple effects throughout the economy. Failing to resolve the situation quickly means risking the return of a disastrous condition from 50 years ago.

Let’s talk about stagflation 🧵👇 Image
If you’re not familiar with it, stagflation is the combination of three painful economic phenomena:

1. High inflation
2. Slow or negative economic growth
3. High unemployment

Our parents experienced it in the 70s and 80s. The effects were devastating, and the remedy was costly. Image
Stagflation is worse than an economic recession.

Stagflation a self-reinforcing financial doom loop, devouring everything in its path. The economy slows down, jobs disappear, and yet—paradoxically—prices still rise.

It’s the worst of all worlds. Image
Read 15 tweets
Apr 4
THREAD: Here's what a dive bar in Memphis taught me about tariffs, global trade, and domestic manufacturing.

(Yes, I'm being serious.)

Let's talk about why it's so hard to produce things in America, what it means for our country, and what we can do about it 🧵👇 Image
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Years ago, I worked on a corpdev team at a large industrial conglomerate. This company was a major player in basically every material in the world, from crude oil to glass to fertilizer.

There was only one thing missing: Steel.

So—naturally!—we decided to build a steel mill. Image
We worked with a boutique investment bank (Ari, if you're reading this, you're still the craziest finance wizard I've ever met), partnered with a major PE firm, wrote an absurdly large check, and got to work building a brand new steel mill in the middle of freaking nowhere. Image
Read 12 tweets
Mar 13
Private equity is coming for the accounting industry. They’re rolling up practices, cutting costs, raising prices, and doing what PE does best.

There’s just one problem:

It’s not going to work. They’re lighting capital on fire, and they don’t even realize it.

Let’s dig in!👇🧵 Image
This is going to be a loooong thread, touching on everything from the unique structure of the CPA industry to the inter-generational culture war within many firms to how PE firms structure exit opportunities.

Stick with me, though, and I promise I’ll tie it together. 😉 (2/28) Image
Let’s start with what PE likes about the CPA industry. If you read their slide decks, it almost sounds perfect for them:

- It’s one of the only industries PE hasn’t already picked over (“It’s terra nova! A huge blue ocean!”), meaning there’s low-hanging fruit to optimize. (3/28) Image
Read 28 tweets
Feb 2
US CANADA MEXICO TRADE DATA THREAD 📊🧵

By now, we all know about the new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. But what does this actually mean for businesses and consumers?

I just downloaded and analyzed a bunch of Trade Department data to find out.

Let’s dig in! 👇 Image
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Every year, the US runs a trade deficit with both Canada and Mexico. In simple terms, we import from them more than we export to them.

In 2023, Canada sent us $419B of goods (blue), while we sent them $354B (green). This resulted in a $64B deficit (yellow). Image
Similarly, the US also runs a persistent trade deficit with Mexico. Mexico’s import numbers aren’t much larger than Canada’s, but, because we export less to them, our trade deficit is larger—$152B in 2023. Image
Read 15 tweets
Dec 29, 2024
H-1B DATA MEGA-THREAD 🧵

I downloaded five years of H-1B data from the US DOL website (4M+ records) and spent the day crunching data.

I went into this with an open mind, but, to be honest, I'm now *extremely* skeptical of how this program works.

Here's what I found 👇 Image
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Before I start, one note: All charts in this thread are for applications that were “certified” (in other words, approved for entry into the H-1B lottery). I filtered out applications the gov rejected.

All numbers here are therefore for visas employers actually and realistically attempted to obtain.
To start with, this program is MASSIVELY popular with employers. The program has a statutory limit of 85,000 visas per year, but employers routinely receive approval for more than 800k applications per year (868k, or 10x the limit, in 2024). Image
Read 20 tweets

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