Thread by @KurtBassuener

Important statement by French Ambassador re @OHR_BiH push to addess @ECHR_CEDH on Kovacevic case appeal. 1/👇
klix.ba/vijesti/bih/fr…

Our view (from 2023) at @DPC_global on the potential of the ruling, in combination with the whole Sejdic-Finci caselaw, to enable a new alternative social contract, here 2/ 👇
democratizationpolicy.org/dpc-on-ecthrs-…

@DPC_global To my knowledge, NOBODY in the BiH political sphere/public space, has pursued developing a pan-BiH CONSTITUENCY for an alternative to the Dayton order. The rulings are not self-implementing. Building one would be highly time & labor intensive. 3/

@DPC_global But it's the only way out of this evolutionary dead-end. Even if there were really enlightened & informed intl strategic leadership to design an alternative governance system (hint: there ain't), the last thing the country needs is another condtituition w/o popular legitimacy. 4/

@DPC_global Those who follow me ought to recognize that I despise the WHOLE BiH (& regional) political class. Svi. But it's not b/c they are uniquely benighted souls. They're just uniquely EMPOWERED under Dayton. The house always wins. All compete to be chief rentiers (& their retinues). 5/

@DPC_global And aside from patronage, their most valuable tool is FEAR. Once upon a time, we in the "intl community" defused it by ensuring they feared threatening or employing violence: it could be career ending or worse. Progress under Dayton, w/i limits, was feasible. Hence the hope... 6/

@DPC_global ...in 2005, when I hit the ground. EU enlargement magic was supposed to solve the rest - & came w/ a theological gag reflex to enforcement tools (OHR, EUFOR). "Ownership" was the watchword. Guess what? It means that this #PeaceCartel effectively owns the country and... 7/

@DPC_global ...all its institutions, resources - and future. The West basically has accepted that, though they have divisions on how that should work, as Schmidt has demonstrated. The losers are basically everyone not in or w/ access to a black Audi. 8/

@DPC_global Those who follow us at DPC know we were against the election law change long before it was imposed. And Schmidt is definitely the wrong person in that job. But so long as Dayton remains the bad old set of rules, there needs to be someone (preferably wise & honest) in that job. 9/

@DPC_global There also needs to be a credible military deterrent. We've been consistently vocal that this means a whole brigade, properly equipped & deployed, to deter local confluct entrepreneurs & the neighbors, who have capitalized on the free-range Dayton rules-free environment. 10/

@DPC_global By all indications, Schmidt seems poised to argue that the Kovacevic ruling threatens the Dayton balance and the peace. The latter would be a stinging self-indictment of the intl community, given that @euforbih is LEGALLY OBLIGATED to maintain a "safe & secure environment"... 11/

@DPC_global @euforbih ...under DPA Annex 1A and the UNSC Ch. 7 mandate. The EU has watered-down its own interpretation to be 2nd responder, following local authorities. DETERRING LOCAL AUTHORITIES the #PeaceCartel (+SRB&HR) is why IFOR>SFOR>EUFOR is here! Complete abdication of EU responsibility. 12/

@DPC_global @euforbih The most the West could do here/region is defuse the fear all these guys use so profitably. We will defend these borders & rules until there are genuine popular alternatives. We can do that forever. Then they can stop calling them "partner" & throwing € & validation @ them. 13/

@DPC_global @euforbih That's not a solution, but it would give those who want something better here traction by disarming the regional cartel of its killer app: fear. The West prizes #pacification over its proclaimed values. So the baseline is to "stabilize" things - and then cash in... 14/

@DPC_global @euforbih ...with mining deals, weapons sales, etc. If I believed the people in BiH were genuinely represented by the political class, I'd eject. But I see so much evidence that they know they're not. They're manifestly disgusted. But resigned. 15/

@DPC_global @euforbih Noone attempts to assemble them across the lines the greedhead political class polices (or at least accepts & exploits) behind forward-looking alternatives. The IC of course would get indigestion at that ("destabilizing!," clutch pearls), but it'd put them on the spot. 16/

@DPC_global @euforbih As for now, I fear that the cynical self-justification for the West's cynical approach(es) amounts to: the Balkans are naturally tribal. So let's just manage them, ensure alignment, and make what we can out of it. 17/

@DPC_global @euforbih I could go on, but I'll leave it at this: I honestly sense that popular disgust, regionwide, w/ the whole menu (domestic & foreign) has never been higher. THAT is potential energy & solidarity, if given a positive, coherent direction. And that's what keeps me at it... 18/Ends

@DPC_global @euforbih Addendum: this was our regional ground-based read in early 2023. It's worse now, but the trajectory was clear then: democratizationpolicy.org/gaslighting-de…

@DPC_global *constitution