Thread by @DanHollaway

We need to address some things with the Helene response. 🧵

Certainly agencies like FEMA are run by an incompetent administration, and many of the issues we'll discuss below are because of weak or absent leadership at the federal level. However...

The blame for the disjointed, slow, and disorganized response in NC rests solely on @NC_Governor for not pushing ICS command to federal authorities.

I'm going to address all of these issues, including the horrible advice being given to the Governor by members of his National Guard command.

First, let's begin with the delayed response. This is entirely because Cooper has failed to request federal authority. As of Wednesday, only 10% of the NC NG had been activated. Of those activated, no one knew who to report to.

As is usually the case in these situations, the American public stood up and started acting immediately. There are a lot of rumors about NG or cops or FEMA stopping people from helping, I don't know anything about that. But if it's happening, it's because no one is in charge.

One example of this came from an active member of the armed forces. They communicated to me that they can't conduct SAR (search and rescue) and provide life/limb/eyesight treatment to anyone without first calling in for authority from the NG. This is STUPID.

For those of you have deployed, you know this exact situation. You need close air support in a gunfight and can't get it because some Colonel 20 miles away won't authorize it and people die as a result. That is precisely what's happening here.

So now we know the situation on the ground. What does history tell us?

A review of Katrine, which I've written multiple papers about as an emergency manager and student, states two primary lessons learned: Put federal authority in charge IMMEDIATELY and lean on private companies for supply (walmart, costco, etc.). Don't reinvent the wheel.

From the review: “What also has changed is the strategy behind employing DoD assets, Reed said. During Katrina, the doctrine in place was called “sequential failure,”

"meaning local officials had to fail and then the state effort had to fail before federal help could come in. Katrina changed this. Local, state and federal planners work together now.”

Why federal authority? They have access to greater resources, personnel who are trained in managing dozens of agencies at once, access to J9 (has reps from every relevant federal agency and DOD), unified national response, legal authority and emergency powers, etc.

I've mentioned the 82nd several times, my old unit, so I'll explain why in addition to their proximity to the situation they're uniquely suited to manage this situation.

After 20+ years of war, people think of us as hard-charging door kickers, and that's certainly true, but the unique thing about the 82nd is our ability to insert into hostile territory and setup an entire city's worth of resources in a matter of hours.

As much as my infantry brain hates to admit this, it is our massive support element (CAB, Air, Medical, etc.) that makes us a devastation force on such short notice. This is what we were created for, and we're quite literally the best in the world at it.

This is common knowledge in the emergency management world. Some might argue that FD (fire) is better suited for ICS command, and while they invented the ICS, this is a massive operation that requires federal authority.

So if it's common knowledge, why isn't it happening? The first reason is @NC_Governor doesn't know what he's doing. I've seen it first hand.

Second, he's getting horrible advice. A colonel in the NC NG has him convinced that the people of Appalachia will just attack any fed/soldier who comes near them. This is moronic. I can promise you that someone who's trapped or hasn't eaten in days will welcome any help.

And third, a complete lack of leadership at the White House. If @POTUS was awake and aware or if @vp even cared, they would pick up the phone and demand Cooper do the right thing. They haven't, so it's on all of you to convince him anyway you can. Phone, email, social media.

Finally, to address one issue with reporting, the body count appears to many to be very low. After speaking to some special operators in the region, we now have a good sense of why that number is so low.

We won't have a true sense of the death toll until major excavations begin. Many bodies are under water, covered by mud and debris, or simply ripped apart so badly they can't be identified.

The information from the ground is that the reported body count will increase by 5-10X as these recovery operations continue. In short, we have already surpassed Katrina levels.

As is always the case, the first casualty is any emergency is the truth. It doesn't help anyone to spread negativity or unverified information. If you're going to spread something, spread information about how to donate and volunteer or specific politicians to pressure.

The organization I work with, @saveourallies is a great place to volunteer or donate, but you can also request assistance there. For reference, this is the org that evac'd >12,000 personnel from Afghanistan in 2021. Please share this so people know what's going on.