1/ Been thinking about prediction markets a lot.
There's a huge crossover between media and prediction markets, which make them very relevant to Blockworks.
If I were competing against Polymarket, here's what I'd do 🧵
There's a huge crossover between media and prediction markets, which make them very relevant to Blockworks.
If I were competing against Polymarket, here's what I'd do 🧵
2/ First there are some financial / structural things to put in place.
I have no idea how hard these are. Probably hard.
I'm sure Polymarket has thought of all these and there's a reason they aren't doing them.
I have no idea how hard these are. Probably hard.
I'm sure Polymarket has thought of all these and there's a reason they aren't doing them.
3/ Financial things:
a) Fix the capped upside – figure out how to create non-binary outcomes
b) Give anyone (permissionless) or an approved list (semi-permissionless) the ability to create markets
c) Add leverage
d) Add more leverage
e) Add perps to help hedge
a) Fix the capped upside – figure out how to create non-binary outcomes
b) Give anyone (permissionless) or an approved list (semi-permissionless) the ability to create markets
c) Add leverage
d) Add more leverage
e) Add perps to help hedge
4/
f) Improve liquidity by incentivizing institutions to make markets
^ on this, you probably need to get them on the cap table or do weird things like offer options based on trading volume
g) Give yield on collateral. This decreases opportunity cost of locking money in bets
f) Improve liquidity by incentivizing institutions to make markets
^ on this, you probably need to get them on the cap table or do weird things like offer options based on trading volume
g) Give yield on collateral. This decreases opportunity cost of locking money in bets
5/ It's going to be interesting to see how much Polymarket volumes drop post-election.
I would do a LOT right now to focus on markets outside of politics.
Some GTM ideas below.
I would do a LOT right now to focus on markets outside of politics.
Some GTM ideas below.
6/ GTM ideas
a) Create leaderboards of the best predictors
b) Create the ability to copy trade these predictors
c) Go mobile first
d) Integrate with media brands to embed markets inside their news stories
e) Find more markets with regularity
f) Target non-US markets
a) Create leaderboards of the best predictors
b) Create the ability to copy trade these predictors
c) Go mobile first
d) Integrate with media brands to embed markets inside their news stories
e) Find more markets with regularity
f) Target non-US markets
7/
g) Add social features so you can predict with your friends
h) Ability to bet on social / cultural things (will Mr Beast say *this word* in his next video, will Eminem drop a new album this year, etc)
i) Lean into streamers
g) Add social features so you can predict with your friends
h) Ability to bet on social / cultural things (will Mr Beast say *this word* in his next video, will Eminem drop a new album this year, etc)
i) Lean into streamers
8/ Also, not really GTM or structural but from a business model perspective...
You're sitting on a lot of beautiful data.
Figure out how to monetize this somehow.
You're sitting on a lot of beautiful data.
Figure out how to monetize this somehow.
9/ That's all I got.
It all started with Augur but @shayne_coplan and @Polymarket really created the market.
Insane amount of respect for them and they have a huge first mover advantage but competition will make everyone better.
Let the games begin.
It all started with Augur but @shayne_coplan and @Polymarket really created the market.
Insane amount of respect for them and they have a huge first mover advantage but competition will make everyone better.
Let the games begin.
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