Thomas Rid Profile picture
Oct 9 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
"Influence and Cyber Operations: An Update," the new OpenAI threat intelligence report, out a few hours ago. The document is interesting for one specific reason that hasn't been mentioned in public reporting so far cdn.openai.com/threat-intelli…
This is the money paragraph, from today's OpenAI report "Influence and Cyber Operations: An Update."

tldr: AI labs sit at a middle section of adversary kill chains—if staffed & equipped properly, the labs are potentially uniquely well positioned for threat intelligence insights Image
The report also has some interesting LLM TTP examples Image
Interesting questions here: if and how will OpenAI's unique investigative advantage decrease as its market share will (almost inevitably) decrease? — As more AI models enter the fray, and more local inference comes in, more artificial content will go undetected.
How will can the threat intelligence insights that AI labs can extract from their intermediate position on the kill chain be used by other parties to pivot?
Trend that OpenAI and @benimmo are identifying here is likely going to accelerate. Will other labs (and indeed OpenAI) get the message and invest into building larger, stronger Threat Intel teams as long as big AI still has the telemetry and adversaries are making more mistakes?

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More from @RidT

Sep 30
JUST OUT — September was a wild month for scholars of modern covert influence operations. No longer do we have to rely on a campaign's digital footprints alone. My first analysis of ~3K leaked internal files and fresh FBI evidence on "Doppelganger."

foreignaffairs.com/russia/lies-ru…
This video was an internal production by the Social Design Agency, a disinformation firm in Moscow, produced in early August 2023, likely to be viewed by Vladimir Putin. Note the memo reproduced in the description, discussing the video.
Why is this leak interesting? Image
Read 10 tweets
Sep 16
Several weeks ago German media (WDR, NDR, SZ) received a leak of internal files from the biggest Russian disinformation contractor, Social Design Agency, often referred to as Doppelganger. "Western security officials" confirmed authenticity. First story by @FlorianFlade et al
Another investigation in SZ (Would anybody with access share the PDF with me? DMs open) sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artik…
Another exclusive @tagesschau, this one is excellent. I wish they would excerpt or screenshot the source documents though tagesschau.de/investigativ/n…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 23
Russian Saboteurs Behind Arson Attack at Berlin's Diehl Metal Factory in May

A huge deal, if confirmed. This WSJ story has some eye-popping details wsj.com/world/europe/r…
The WSJ does not identify who these "Western security officials" in this context. Image
Context: WSJ is citing German stories from last Friday here tagesschau.de/inland/regiona…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jun 14
If I taught my DISINFORMATION class again, and if I wanted to include a session on the most self-defeating, the most unethical, really just the dumbest influence campaigns in history, this one would be close to the top of the list. reuters.com/investigates/s…
Okay, first, the DoD deserves some credit at least for openly admitting it was engaged in this kind of covert influence activity, when asked by Reuters. Image
This is pretty much the textbook example for an unethical influence operation: calling into question the effectiveness of a vaccine (that was later WHO-approved), without evidence, during a deadly pandemic, at a moment of global uncertainty, lockdowns, even panic.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 6
An observation on the Taurus leak that I have not seen elsewhere (could have missed it):

The intercepted recording starts with BG Frank Graefe, in Singapore, saying "Hallo," to which the response is "Moin Moin Herr General, Hauptmann Irrgang hier." "Servus." (A common greeting)
Irrgang: "I would add you now, if you like."

Graefe: "Thank you."

Then: automated Webex voice: "You are accessing the conference now."
My interpretation: the general, from a hotel room in Singapore, likely did not join by URL, but called a staff officer to phone-connect him into the meeting. The intercept likely started before entering the Webex session. So that leaves us with two most probable scenarios:
Read 9 tweets
May 3, 2023
Some of you asked. So here are a few reflections on how I've started using Twitter moving forward—and whatever will come to replace it. Some of you may want to do the same.

Because this approach works even if—when, really—Twitter itself has disappeared.
This, btw, was good nytimes.com/2023/04/18/mag…
Posts on Twitter, or Mastodon, are a bit like public events with drinks afterwards: crucial for inspiration, for meeting people, for keeping up-to-date. But what really matters are the human-to-human connections, not the platform of choice. Bear with me.
Read 9 tweets

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