Latest Pew Research national poll is Harris +1, 48/47, with 5% going to the undecideds. Last poll was tied 49-49 but that was pure head-to-head poll.
Safe to say this a terrible national poll for Kamala Harris as RFK actually gets 2% of the vote (Stein and Oliver get 1% each) and that could easily be Trump+RFK supporters parking their votes with him in polls or voters in deep red and blue states knowing they can waste them.
Nevertheless, even a straight Harris +1 national result is below both 538 and RCP averages and under the magic "EC line" for Harris.
pewresearch.org/politics/2024/…
Safe to say this a terrible national poll for Kamala Harris as RFK actually gets 2% of the vote (Stein and Oliver get 1% each) and that could easily be Trump+RFK supporters parking their votes with him in polls or voters in deep red and blue states knowing they can waste them.
Nevertheless, even a straight Harris +1 national result is below both 538 and RCP averages and under the magic "EC line" for Harris.
pewresearch.org/politics/2024/…
Huge gender gap that could easily be women afraid to say they don't support the first potential female president.
But Trump wins Whites by 14, above his own 12-point level in 2020, and does better than before with Black and Hispanic and Asian voters.
4% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans vote for 3rd parties.....which again is terrible news for Kamala Harris because Republicans who choose RFK are far more likely to go to Trump at the ballot box than Democrats who choose Stein or Oliver.
But Trump wins Whites by 14, above his own 12-point level in 2020, and does better than before with Black and Hispanic and Asian voters.
4% of Democrats and 4% of Republicans vote for 3rd parties.....which again is terrible news for Kamala Harris because Republicans who choose RFK are far more likely to go to Trump at the ballot box than Democrats who choose Stein or Oliver.
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